Minnesota polling says GOP has the state in their corner

[Badger]

I deleted my initial response to this thread, because after looking at the actual numbers I was wrong in claiming Minnesota was effectively out of reach for the GOP barring something approaching A 1988 level national victory margin. Obama's statewide margin of victory last time was approximately 7.7%, almost exactly double his national popular vote margin of approximately 3.85%.. if the Republicans were to win the popular vote nationally by only about the same unimpressive margin Obama did, and assuming - - a big if I know - - Minnesota followed suit, then the state would then be on the Razors Edge of flipping.

Mind you, Republicans need to understand that anything less than an Obama 2012 victory margin nationally almost surely means Hillary will carry MN.

[Badger]

First off for the record this poll is two months old, not sure why it was posted now.

Second Minnesota has been trending Democratic across the board. No Republican has won a statewide race since 2006 (Tim Pawlenty). No Republican has gotten 50%+ of the vote statewide since 1996 (Arne Carlson).  The rural republican areas of the state are shedding population while the liberal Twin Cities have been booming.  Unless there is a Republican landslide nationally Minnesota is safe Democrat for the presidency in 2016.

Okay it is NOT trending Democrat. Lol. PS everyone, Minnesota democrats are typically moderate and fairly conservative on social issues. I see no reason why it is implausible for them to begin voting republican when democrats are increasingly liberal and are isolating white voters.

On what issues are Democrats "increasingly liberal" than the same general policies they've run on--and consistently carried Minnesota-- during the last 30-40 years? Voting for dovish, pro-choice, pro-union, economically and socially liberal Democrats is hardly new to Minnesotans. The one exception from past-decades may be Democrats now being solidly pro-gay marriage, which is a popular issue nationally and even more so in MN.

There are other issues at work here that hurt MN Democrats to be sure, but your "analysis" misses them entirely.

[Badger]

I deleted my initial response to this thread, because after looking at the actual numbers I was wrong in claiming Minnesota was effectively out of reach for the GOP barring something approaching A 1988 level national victory margin. Obama's statewide margin of victory last time was approximately 7.7%, almost exactly double his national popular vote margin of approximately 3.85%.. if the Republicans were to win the popular vote nationally by only about the same unimpressive margin Obama did, and assuming - - a big if I know - - Minnesota followed suit, then the state would then be on the Razors Edge of flipping.

Mind you, Republicans need to understand that anything less than an Obama 2012 victory margin nationally almost surely means Hillary will carry MN.

If MN trended D, I'd be surprised. If it trends R by even one point, it would be won by as great a margin as NC in 2012 with an Obama 2012 sized victory.

I initially would've agreed, but just checked and was surprised to find MN trended nearly a full point between 2008 and 2012. Some of that may be from McCain hitting the floor a GOP presidential candidate can get in MN, but doesn't necessarily indicate Republicans can expect a trend in their direction next year.

[Badger]

maybe MN voters are sick of all the Somalis there

You can only hope, Stormfront.