Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[Badger]

This is your party, Republicans

Y'all keep saying that, yet these kind of candidates (Moore, Trump) keep winning.

Yes, that's...that's the problem.

And a problem that you guys need to fix. Democrats kick out terrible incumbents. (Chaka Fattah, Corrine Brown, Bill Jefferson) Republicans re-elect them - even pre-Trump. (Scott DesJarlais, Michael Grimm, Darrell Issa, Sam Brownback)

So why's Steny Hoyer still a factor then?

Do try again.

I'm sure you have some bizarre and arbitrary reason for hating Steny Hoyer, but the point of comparison seems to be non-existent. This isn't about people you personally dislike.

[Badger]

But if fairness, the scandal hadn't truly blown open until after 06.

Does anyone truly believe a +30 R district would elect a Democrat if the incumbent was involved in such a scandal?

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I am a white woman from Alabama and I am deeply shocked, I stayed at home because I could not vote for Moore, but it hurts my heart that a Democrat wins the state, it really is a nightmare.

[Badger]

I am a white woman from Alabama and I am deeply shocked, I stayed at home because I could not vote for Moore, but it hurts my heart that a Democrat wins the state, it really is a nightmare.

Go away Daniel. You aren't from Alabama.

Is this a definitive IP check, Mod-Woman?

Sic 'em!

[Badger]

The fact that Westbrook got 41% means Laura Moser and other weak #resistance candidates are extremely likely to win in D primaries. Panic time for Democrats hoping to retake the house.

Thanks Richard!

[Badger]

Conor Lamb
Democrat
1,700   58.7%
Rick Saccone
Republican
1,177   40.6
Drew Miller
Libertarian
19   0.7

2,896 votes, 2% reporting (10 of 593 precincts)

Whoa. Where did that big dump of lamb voters come from?

[Badger]

OH-12 would terrify me if I was a Republican

I'm not quite feeling it over here to be honest. There's a couple important distinctions. First off, it's likely the Republicans will get a decidedly good candidate. Not a C+ grade 1 like let's go who, as noted, has issues, but some well-established state senators and / or a County prosecutor who don't have a history of being bomb-throwing right-wingers. Likewise, while the Democrats may have a decent ish candidate in the Franklin County Recorder or a Delaware business man who is garnering a number of endorsements, they're not getting a Doug Jones,  Connor lamb, or Tipperani (sp?) Quality level candidate. Heck I don't think the candidates here are even up to the level of the candidates running the special elections in Kansas and South Carolina. I'm not sure these folks would be as bad as the Montana Congressional candidate ( assuming Franklin County's former Sheriff doesn't somehow win).

That said, there are not just a ton of candidates running for the Republican side, but a large number of viable candidates. There's at least three or four Hunan any other District would be a consensus choice for the party to nominate. With that said and the state senators and prosecutor at least being non Neanderthal level conservatives and obviously in stablished in types, there is I suppose a reasonable chance in a heavily fractured primary vote that one or two of the well funded wingnutz could worm their way through to a win. If that's the case, either of the Democrats top two candidates would have a competitive chance to win

[Badger]

OH-12 would terrify me if I was a Republican

I'm not quite feeling it over here to be honest. There's a couple important distinctions. First off, it's likely the Republicans will get a decidedly good candidate. Not a C+ grade 1 like let's go who, as noted, has issues, but some well-established state senators and / or a County prosecutor who don't have a history of being bomb-throwing right-wingers. Likewise, while the Democrats may have a decent ish candidate in the Franklin County Recorder or a Delaware business man who is garnering a number of endorsements, they're not getting a Doug Jones,  Connor lamb, or Tipperani (sp?) Quality level candidate. Heck I don't think the candidates here are even up to the level of the candidates running the special elections in Kansas and South Carolina. I'm not sure these folks would be as bad as the Montana Congressional candidate ( assuming Franklin County's former Sheriff doesn't somehow win).

That said, there are not just a ton of candidates running for the Republican side, but a large number of viable candidates. There's at least three or four Hunan any other District would be a consensus choice for the party to nominate. With that said and the state senators and prosecutor at least being non Neanderthal level conservatives and obviously in stablished in types, there is I suppose a reasonable chance in a heavily fractured primary vote that one or two of the well funded wingnutz could worm their way through to a win. If that's the case, either of the Democrats top two candidates would have a competitive chance to win

What were Lesko's issues? She didn't appear to have anything major at all against her.

A bit of a Baum for an extremist, though in today's Roy Moore oriented GOP, she seemed like those second incarnation of Reagan by comparison.

Seriously, she wasn't the best. Or at least let's put it this way, the candidates in Ohio 12 are of a higher caliber.

[Badger]

OH-12 would terrify me if I was a Republican

I'm not quite feeling it over here to be honest. There's a couple important distinctions. First off, it's likely the Republicans will get a decidedly good candidate. Not a C+ grade 1 like let's go who, as noted, has issues, but some well-established state senators and / or a County prosecutor who don't have a history of being bomb-throwing right-wingers. Likewise, while the Democrats may have a decent ish candidate in the Franklin County Recorder or a Delaware business man who is garnering a number of endorsements, they're not getting a Doug Jones,  Connor lamb, or Tipperani (sp?) Quality level candidate. Heck I don't think the candidates here are even up to the level of the candidates running the special elections in Kansas and South Carolina. I'm not sure these folks would be as bad as the Montana Congressional candidate ( assuming Franklin County's former Sheriff doesn't somehow win).

That said, there are not just a ton of candidates running for the Republican side, but a large number of viable candidates. There's at least three or four Hunan any other District would be a consensus choice for the party to nominate. With that said and the state senators and prosecutor at least being non Neanderthal level conservatives and obviously in stablished in types, there is I suppose a reasonable chance in a heavily fractured primary vote that one or two of the well funded wingnutz could worm their way through to a win. If that's the case, either of the Democrats top two candidates would have a competitive chance to win

Speaking as a resident of the district, I think we have a shot if it is Balderson vs. O’Connor.

Isn't Balderson the one where establishment decided to coalesce around?

For the most part*, but IIRC he's also pretty conservative** (although I could be mistaken) and the only part of his State Senate seat in the district is the Muskingum County part of OH-12 (which consists of about half the county's rural areas and the city of Zanesville, the latter which is less Republican than the rest of the county).  O'Connor seems like a fairly standard-issue Franklin County Democrat which will work against him in the district (Jay Goyal would've been a much better candidate and knowing what we know now, I actually think he'd win), but he's solid wave insurance and I think he's certainly stronger than the candidate we had in AZ-8.  I don't know if he'll get nominated, but I suspect he will and both the swing and Democratic turnout in Franklin County will be absolutely insane no matter who wins. 

Balderson vs. O'Connor would basically generic rural conservative R vs. generic Franklin County D.  In this district, that means Balderson probably wins, but in this environment an upset can't be ruled out either.  Franklin County is gonna be really, really ugly for the Republicans this cycle across the board.  A NoVA circa 2017 beatdown of all Republicans in Franklin County at the federal, state, and local level wouldn't be even remotely surprising and it could be even worse for them than NoVA was in a special election tbh (I can tell you this, even with the ODP being what it is, Franklin County is gonna have insanely high turnout in the GE and probably the special election GE, idk about the primary though). 

*Although I wouldn't say it's a "the fix is in" situation and I think he'd lose the primary if it were a head-to-head with a solid candidate from Franklin or Delaware County.

**Specifically, rural conservative as opposed to a suburban Stivers/Tiberi type of conservative

Troy is not a freedom caucus type conservative. Thus I agree with your assessment. I'm not saying the GOP shouldn't be worried, but likewise Democrats shouldn't get overconfident by pointing to Arizona 8th and the less Republican pvi of this District, and thereby wrongly assuming this is a genuine toss-up. At least not yet.

There is a freedom caucus endorsed Township Trustee running. She was the primary person I was referring to regarding the possibility of a Wingnut coalescing enough support to slip past multiple generic establishment conservatives splitting the vote by home county geography. I think O'Connor would indeed have even odds against her.

[Badger]

Politico has an article this morning about the OH-12 race.

Is Rep. Jordon a Democratic Party mole? He seems like he is the Democrats' best friend, again, and again.

No, he's just fiscally 1980s socially 1980s generally 1980s

More like 1880s

[Badger]

Final:

Democratic Primary

Percent   Candidate   Votes   Winner
40.9%   Danny O'Connor   17,966   
16.8%   Zach Scott   7,394   
16.7%   John Russell   7,341   
13.5%   Jackie Patton   5,952   
8.1%   Ed Albertson   3,543   
3.9%   Doug Wilson   1,732   
100% of precincts reporting (603/603)
43,928 total votes

Republican Primary

Percent   Candidate   Votes   Winner
29.2%   Troy Balderson   19,811   
28.2%   Melanie Leneghan   19,159   
17.1%   Tim Kane   11,576   
14.3%   Kevin Bacon   9,694   
6.4%   Carol O'Brien   4,354   
1.5%   Jon Halverstadt   984   
1.2%   Larry Cohen   796   
1.1%   Mick Shoemaker   736   
1.1%   Pat Manley   729   
100% of precincts reporting (603/603)
67,839 total votes

Next Special is in TX-27 on June 30.

We Republicans dodged a bullet nominating Troy over Leneghan. Balderson will keep this Lean R, whereas it would've been at least Lean D with Leneghan.

[Badger]

Final:

Democratic Primary

Percent   Candidate   Votes   Winner
40.9%   Danny O'Connor   17,966   
16.8%   Zach Scott   7,394   
16.7%   John Russell   7,341   
13.5%   Jackie Patton   5,952   
8.1%   Ed Albertson   3,543   
3.9%   Doug Wilson   1,732   
100% of precincts reporting (603/603)
43,928 total votes

Republican Primary

Percent   Candidate   Votes   Winner
29.2%   Troy Balderson   19,811   
28.2%   Melanie Leneghan   19,159   
17.1%   Tim Kane   11,576   
14.3%   Kevin Bacon   9,694   
6.4%   Carol O'Brien   4,354   
1.5%   Jon Halverstadt   984   
1.2%   Larry Cohen   796   
1.1%   Mick Shoemaker   736   
1.1%   Pat Manley   729   
100% of precincts reporting (603/603)
67,839 total votes

Next Special is in TX-27 on June 30.

We Republicans dodged a bullet nominating Troy over Leneghan. Balderson will keep this Lean R, whereas it would've been at least Lean D with Leneghan.

I’d say it’s tilt-R with Balderson, but right on the border between tilt-R and Lean R.  O’Connor could win and Goyal would’ve put this right in the middle of the tilt-D category with Balderson as the Republican nominee, but for now, Balderson has a small (but significant) advantage.  Turnout is gonna be through the roof in Franklin County, but obviously that won’t be enough by itself.  O’Connor needs to make big inroads in Delaware County while keeping Richland County close (losing it by 5% or less) and not getting completely blown out of the water in Licking County (that last one is the hard part imo).  Morrow County is probably gonna be Balderson’s best county by a country mile, so low turnout there would help too.  I assume Muskingum County will give Balderson a bigger boost than most Republicans, but if O’Connor can keep things to a 5-8% loss in Balderson’s home county (i.e. doing really well in Zanesville and holding some of the ancestrally Democratic WWC folks) then that obviously helps (although it’s not essential).

What an insanely gerrymandered district map, even by Ohio "standards".

Morrow County will go strongly R, sure, but it'll also have the fewest votes of any county in the district by far (with the possible exception of the SE corner of Marion County the district somehow bites into). The turnout and margins in Licking and Delaware will be the key factor, with the vote totals out of Zanesville a close second.

[Badger]

lol who are you talking to? I didn't.

Yankee is just shouting into the void.

[Badger]

No one is really excited or talking about OH-12 on the ground. It just hasn't captured the imagination like the past special elections over the year. The election is just a month away. I think this is a race Democrats could win -- if they knew it was happening.

that's... worrisome.

Tell me this then - do you think it's more likely that O'Connor wins in a shocker or that Balderson scores a double digit victory?

O'Connor. Balderson may be favored, but not for a double-digit dunk.

This.