The Dems that are going to have the toughest times are still going to be in the redder states Tester, McCaskill and Webb are going to have the toughest time being reelected.
Dems should hope McDonnell loses his race for VA gov (even to McCullife) to avoid giving the Republicans a grade A+ challenger to Webb. Webb's no sure winner without Gov. McDonnell as an opponent, nor sure loser against McDonnell, but that race would likely turn into the #1 shot of a GOP pickup in '12 (with the possible exception of if Rehberg challenges Tester in MT).