New Senate Rankings

[CollectiveInterest]

Dems will flip at least five of the following seven.

VA (Warner vacancy)
NH (Sununu)
CO (Allard vacancy)
MN (Coleman)
NM (Domenici vacancy)
ME (Collins)
OR (Smith)

GOP has less than 30% of flipping LA (Landrieu) or South Dakota (Johnson). The may be able to flip NJ (Lautenberg), but it's probably only a 20% chance.

The following GOP seats will be in play. Dems will probably win one of the four following.

NE (Hagel vacancy)
KY (McConnell)
ID (Craig vacancy)
AL (Sessions, may retire)

Andd Dems will probably swipe one of the following.

AK (Stevens will probably retire)
NC (Dole)
TX (Cornyn)
TN (Alexander)
OK (Inhofe)

And don't be surprised if Cochran (MS) or Roberts (KS) announce retirements making those seats competitive.

Overall, Dems will probably gain eight seats. This will allow Dems to kick Lieberman to the curb and make it difficult for the GOP to conduct filibusters. Gaining ten seats is by no means outside the realm of possibility.

The possibility of Dems gaining 60 seats in the Senate will have devastating consequences for Republican fundraising for U.S. House candidates.

The closer the election comes the more pressure will be exerted on GOP donors to send their money to swing states in the presidential election or to vulnerable Senate seats. Combined with the energy, enthusiasm and assumption Dems will control Congress and the executive branch, the money available for GOP candidates for the U.S. House will be all coming from the candidates' fundraising, not the national apparatus.