French Legislative Election 2017

[Umengus]

Ifop poll / voix du nord

11 Pas De Calais

Marine 44
Roquet (LREM) 15,5
Kemel (PS-incumbent) 14,5
Carpentier (FI) 13,5
Pintus (LR) 4

the newspaper refuses to give the result of the runoff because the gap between the candidates is too small...

It's the best territory for the FN to have a deputy.

[Umengus]

BVA poll

LREM 30
LR 20
FN 18
FI 12,5
PS 8
EELV 3
PC 2
DLF 2

[Umengus]

Is Le Pen in a good position to win?  I saw the poll of her constituency, and she was at 44%, but the pollster didn't poll the second round.  Also, is Mélenchon a candidate this time around?

Ifop (the pollster in ?) actually did poll her 2nd round but La Voix du Nord (whom Ifop did the poll for) refused to release the result of the runoff b/c the gap between the candidates was supposedly too small... so what does that tell you??

the gap between the candidates (other than marine) of the first round... So the result of the runoff was maybe very good for Marine Le Pen.

Anyway, she's in good position to win.

[Umengus]

Turnout at 5pm: 40.75% (-7.56 compared to 2012)

Ifop final turnout estimate: 50%

in the polls, turnout was estimated at 60 %. So maybe a suprise in the final result. Strong abstention is good for LR and Lrem, bad for FN and FI.

[Umengus]

When do the first results start coming in?

8 pm but it will be some results (rumors, polls,...) before on twitter.

[Umengus]

First exit poll

LREM: 30
LR: 19-20
FN: 17
FI: 12
PS: 7-8