Why is Vermont so liberal nowadays?

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Transplants from liberal states like Massachusetts, and well, the Vermont GOP wasn't exactly conservative by any stretch of the imagination.

NH hasn't always been a swing state. That change only occurred in the 90s.

Wrong. Among other things, Vermont has the highest percentage of residents born in-state in the country. They are certainly not flooded by people from Massachusetts (who are not nearly as liberal as you proclaim, anyway, merely loyal to the Democrats).

Vermont has always been liberal, very liberal, using the modern definition of the term. It is merely party loyalties which have shifted, largely because of increased emphasis on religious conservatism by the Republicans and its decline among the Democrats (as well as the complete collapse of the Dixiecrat tradition and association of the Democrats with the South, which is really part of the same story and maybe the cause of it).

Basically, Vermont=WASP. In the 1980s and previous, WASP=Republican; today, WASP=Democrat (in the traditional meaning of the term, not its generic use today to describe all wealthy people). The real story is the changing political affiliation of people of English extraction, especially those whose ancestors did not embrace the Second Great Awakening (which was very weak in Vermont).

Um, no. Vermont's invasion by hippies from New York and Massachusetts is a fact, and it began back in the 60s. Howard Dean and Bernie Sanders are both native New Yorkers.

Vermont has more French and French Canadians than it has WASPS. People of English ancestry make up less than 20% of the population, and a plurality of the population is of Catholic background.

About half the population of Vermont was born outside the state, ranking 37th in the country in terms of percentage born in-state.

Among Vermonters with college degrees, 73% were born out-of-state. Among Vermonters who make more than $100k a year, 70% of them were born outside Vermont.


Clearly you don't have any idea what you are talking about.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Transplants from liberal states like Massachusetts, and well, the Vermont GOP wasn't exactly conservative by any stretch of the imagination.

NH hasn't always been a swing state. That change only occurred in the 90s.

Wrong. Among other things, Vermont has the highest percentage of residents born in-state in the country. They are certainly not flooded by people from Massachusetts (who are not nearly as liberal as you proclaim, anyway, merely loyal to the Democrats).

Vermont has always been liberal, very liberal, using the modern definition of the term. It is merely party loyalties which have shifted, largely because of increased emphasis on religious conservatism by the Republicans and its decline among the Democrats (as well as the complete collapse of the Dixiecrat tradition and association of the Democrats with the South, which is really part of the same story and maybe the cause of it).

Basically, Vermont=WASP. In the 1980s and previous, WASP=Republican; today, WASP=Democrat (in the traditional meaning of the term, not its generic use today to describe all wealthy people). The real story is the changing political affiliation of people of English extraction, especially those whose ancestors did not embrace the Second Great Awakening (which was very weak in Vermont).

Um, no. Vermont's invasion by hippies from New York and Massachusetts is a fact, and it began back in the 60s. Howard Dean and Bernie Sanders are both native New Yorkers.

Vermont has more French and French Canadians than it has WASPS. People of English ancestry make up less than 20% of the population, and a plurality of the population is of Catholic background.

About half the population of Vermont was born outside the state, ranking 37th in the country in terms of percentage born in-state.

Among Vermonters with college degrees, 73% were born out-of-state. Among Vermonters who make more than $100k a year, 70% of them were born outside Vermont.


Clearly you don't have any idea what you are talking about.

The only thing I disagree with is the Catholic part. Catholics are the largest denomination, however, this is misleading as the number of people affiliated Protestant denominations in Vermont combined is more than the number of Catholics.

That's incorrect. Practicing or not, Catholics make up close to 40% of Vermont; Protestants altogether only add up to less than 30% of the population.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

I don't find the "shift of the GOP" argument alone satisfactory, since it doesn't explain why only Vermont has swung to such an extreme degree. Vermont has gone from being the most Republican state to possibly the most Democratic. Maine and New Hampshire have also trended Democratic but to far smaller degrees. What's the difference?

Lots of people moved there from places like New York and Massachusetts, and brought with them their Democratic voting patterns.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

I don't find the "shift of the GOP" argument alone satisfactory, since it doesn't explain why only Vermont has swung to such an extreme degree. Vermont has gone from being the most Republican state to possibly the most Democratic. Maine and New Hampshire have also trended Democratic but to far smaller degrees. What's the difference?

Lots of people moved there from places like New York and Massachusetts, and brought with them their Democratic voting patterns.

1) Why Vermont to such a strong degree compared to New Hampshire? (Yes, NH doesn't border NY, but it is closer to Boston).
2) Vermont is even more Democratic (according to CPVI) than either of those states. So, this would imply that the migrants were even more Democratic than the states they left. Why did liberals want to move to Vermont?
3) The swing from pre-1964 to 2008 is far too large for this to be the main cause.

Lots of hippies started moving there in the 60s to escape the cities, establishing Vermont's modern reputation, then more similar people moved there attracted by that reputation, and it became a self-perpetuating cycle.

Vermont isn't really more Democratic than Massachusetts in any meaningful way. It may be more anti-GOP, but it doesn't have the deep partisan Democratic roots of MA, NY, RI, etc. It preferred an "Independent Socialist" for it's Congressman and Senator, after all.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Vermont has more Americans moving in than out, which is rare for the northeast, and up until this decade wasn't the case for Maine.

Nevertheless, I definitely suspect that this:

Vermont has the highest percentage of it's residents born out-of-state for any state in the country (50-60%).

 is false. From the census document I got the map from, many states in the sun belt have much higher inmigration rates - for instance VT had 1.2% during the 1990's vs. 29.8% for NV. I know these statistics aren't strictly correlated with each other, but still.

Well the percentage of Vermont's population born outside the state was close to or at half around 2004.

The ratio becomes even more pronounced when you're talking about college educated Vermonters, of which 73% were born outside the state in 2005.

Assuming similar migration patterns have continued over the past 5-6 years, both of these numbers have indubitably gone even higher.

Though Vermont does not have "the highest percentage of it's residents born out-of-state for any state in the country", I don't think it was that outrageous for him to claim 50-60% as a reasonable range for the percentage born out-of-state in 2010 Vermont.


Talking 'bah-k' in Vermont

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Vermont in Transition