Bull Moose Base
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,488
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« on: March 11, 2010, 08:20:57 PM » |
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I'm ready to call it. I realize Giuliani was in a similarly strong position in 2006 but (a) Giuliani had ethics issues of a nature that feel less likely to pop up for Romney (b) John McCain came into the race with very wide recognition from his last campaign and many TV appearances and was well suited to compete with Giuliani in his best states. Romney's case is different because the potential competitors with the most media exposure are better suited for different kinds of states (if they even run) and Romney's states where he has a good chance of cruising are much more valuable in a primary. two points I've raised before. 1) Romney's biggest threat is someone like T-Paw or Thune (who could also compete in more moderate states) taking Iowa and getting press like Obama did in '08. A much better scenario for him is Palin or Huckabee winning Iowa and getting in a 2-man race with Romney. Best obviously is winning Iowa himself. (2) it's conceivable Romney could underperform so significantly in the great plains and deep south so as to win more delegates with less popular votes. But best bet is on a relatively easy nomination win for Romney (a la John Kerry in 2004). And by the way, I think Palin wouldn't be deterred from running and losing as long as she gauged the exposure would be good for her media career in the long run.
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