2016 Republican Nomination Poll - November 2014

[Bull Moose Base]

I really don't think anyone has a better than 10% chance to win the nomination. This might be the last month that's true since it's partly a factor of so much confusion as to who runs. But even as the field takes shape, possible late entrants like Pence and unknown variable keep things volatile. 4 years ago, Pawlenty was one of two establishment-approved candidates, and the one who was more conservative and evangelical instead of Mormon. By August, he was out, Perry was in and on his way to double digit leads. A few weeks later, Christie who would had been, stronger than Shermanesque even, seemed about 50/50 to jump in. And this cycle is even harder to predict.

[Bull Moose Base]

Walker's odds which would have been killed by a loss is likely the favorite now. But I'd argue Ted Cruz's stock rose tonight too.  He's more conservative than Walker and I bet can give Walker a run for his money in Iowa. Iowan Republicans nominated as an extreme conservative as they could and successfully flipped a state that Romney and McCain had lost in. To go with Steve King in the House.

[Bull Moose Base]

A lot of close races here. Scarborough and Perry tied. Fallin and Huckabee tied. Palin and Rubio tied. Sandoval, Romney and Cruz all tied. Paul leading Walker by one.