Who carries Arizona?

[Steve from Lambeth]

Safe R.

I still think Republicans will be motivated enough by the Great Electoral Travesty of 2022 to vote in sufficient numbers. It also looks as though the AZ-SC decision hasn't harmed Trump that much; he seemed to be fairly relaxed about it and rightfully* justified about the ultimate consensus that was reached.

*: I don't support abortion nor was I particularly comfortable with every notable non-legislative Republican in the state trying to inject themselves into the repeal process. I am saying that Trump was vindicated, more than any of his fellow meddlers, in thinking that the House, Senate and Governor would resolve this issue in a manner that would not greatly infuriate the mass of Arizonans.

For the record, I foresee a narrow range of potential outcomes and I don't think that Trump wins by more than a couple of percentage points. My mental lower end still has Trump up by a few thousand votes, however. I am classing AZ as Safe Trump not because I think he will win by a great margin, but because I think he is almost certain to accrue the most votes.