She would win Arkansas. As in other parts of the country, she will draw in women and minorities who usually don't vote. Just a few percentage points of that would give her a win.
I think overall, people are forgetting the power of drawing from this crowd that doesn't vote. Most women, when they vote, vote Dem. Almost all minorities vote Dem when they vote. Clinton is popular with all of these groups and has the ability to energize them.
All of you conservative white guys are becoming outnumbered
Last time I checked there were more women voting then men. Plus a women who is conservative is not going to vote for Clinton because she is a women too. It don't work that way.