Rank the states by highest margin for mccain to highest margin for obama

[Josh/Devilman88]

Eliminated no brainers: Not in order

West Virginia
Montana
Delaware
Minnesota
Connecticut
Oregon
Maine
Washington
New Jersey


-- COULD GO EITHER WAY --

Alaska
Florida
North Carolina
Missouri
Virginia
Nevada
New Hampshire
Colorado
New Mexico
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Iowa

[Josh/Devilman88]

Utah   –40%
Oklahoma   –32%
Wyoming   –32%
Nebraska   –31%
Idaho   –30%
Alabama   –28%
Alaska   –24%
Kansas   –22%
Kentucky   –21%
Texas   –20%
Mississippi   –19%
North Carolina   –18%
Indiana   –17%
Georgia   –16%
West Virginia   –16%
North Dakota   –15%
Tennessee   –14%
South Carolina   –13%
South Dakota   –12%
Montana   –10%
Louisiana   –10%
Missouri   –9%
Arizona   –9%
Virginia   –4%
Ohio   –3%
Florida   –1%
Iowa   –0%
Colorado   0%
Minnesota   0%
New Hampshire   1%
Arkansas   1%
Wisconsin   1%
New Mexico   3%
Pennsylvania   3%
Nevada   3%
Maine   4%
New Jersey   4%
Washington   5%
Maryland   7%
Delaware   8%
Michigan   8%
Oregon   13%
Illinois   15%
New York   16%
California   16%
Connecticut   21%
Vermont   23%
Massachusetts   29%
Rhode Island   33%
Hawaii   35%
District of Columbia   90%

The percentage following each is the deviation I expect from the national margin. So at 50:50 split nationally Obama will have taken NV, NM, AR and CO. (I know: he'll take CO before he takes NV and he'll take IA before he takes AR. The numbers are based on observing trends in these margins in past elections. AR oscillates left and right of the national margin. It looks due for a swing to the Dems.) If the national figure is 54% to Obama, which seems reasonable (and not as large as either of Bill Clinton's), then he takes IA, FL, OH and VA too.

WTF??? Do  you really believe that IN, GA, WV, ND, TN, SC, SD, MT and LA will be closer then NC. If so then you don't know anything about America and how states vote.

[Josh/Devilman88]

WTF??? Do  you really believe that IN, GA, WV, ND, TN, SC, SD, MT and LA will be closer then NC. If so then you don't know anything about America and how states vote.

NC is not going anywhere anytime soon.  Period.

Yes it is buddy, I am sick of people saying it isn't. NC has been polling better for Obama then FL, beside that one QU poll. Also NC has had a big population increase from Northerns moving down from up North. You have 2 counties in NC almost at the 1 million mark and 1 almost at the 1/2 million mark. NC is trending toward the Democratic Party and will be with in a few points this year.

[Josh/Devilman88]

WTF??? Do  you really believe that IN, GA, WV, ND, TN, SC, SD, MT and LA will be closer then NC. If so then you don't know anything about America and how states vote.

NC is not going anywhere anytime soon.  Period.

Yes it is buddy, I am sick of people saying it isn't. NC has been polling better for Obama then FL, beside that one QU poll. Also NC has had a big population increase from Northerns moving down from up North. You have 2 counties in NC almost at the 1 million mark and 1 almost at the 1/2 million mark. NC is trending toward the Democratic Party and will be with in a few points this year.

Like that HUGE almost .5% swing in 2004

Compare that to the +2% national swing toward the Republican, yes it was a big swing. That means it trended toward the Democratic Party by over 3%, IIRC.

[Josh/Devilman88]

WTF??? Do  you really believe that IN, GA, WV, ND, TN, SC, SD, MT and LA will be closer then NC. If so then you don't know anything about America and how states vote.

NC is not going anywhere anytime soon.  Period.

Yes it is buddy, I am sick of people saying it isn't. NC has been polling better for Obama then FL, beside that one QU poll. Also NC has had a big population increase from Northerns moving down from up North. You have 2 counties in NC almost at the 1 million mark and 1 almost at the 1/2 million mark. NC is trending toward the Democratic Party and will be with in a few points this year.

Like that HUGE almost .5% swing in 2004

Compare that to the +2% national swing toward the Republican, yes it was a big swing. That means it trended toward the Democratic Party by over 3%, IIRC.

2%+.5%=2.5%, WOW you might be Dem by the next Civil War

Hmm no, NC trended 3.37% in 2004. NC should have voted for bush 59% if it followed the national trend or around 3% toward the Republicans. So it really moved 6% toward the left. So I guess NC will be around 6% more Democratic then in 2004.. making it a 50-49 election in Nov for NC.

[Josh/Devilman88]

WTF??? Do  you really believe that IN, GA, WV, ND, TN, SC, SD, MT and LA will be closer then NC. If so then you don't know anything about America and how states vote.

No, I don't really believe any of those states will be better for Obama than NC. As I (sort of) said I projected recent trends for each state. That will work for a lot of states, but of course some states will turn around or continue a recently initiated trend that won't show up till next election.
NC had been trending toward fairly steadily toward the Dems from the 1830s to the 1920s. Since the 1940 it has turned Rep. I suspect you are right. The stopping of the slide in 2000 and the upturn in 2004 may well be the beginning of a medium-term trned back to the Dems. (Rather than a false dawn, as there was in 1968 and 1984–88.)
If you just project NC's change from 2000 (13.4%) to 2004 (10.0%), you could predict 6.6% this time. (If I'd looked at where NC had fallen I would probably have made that change myself.)
It's an odd thing about Arkansas though: I know there was a Clinton factor, but it's been swinging heavily for the last 50 years. Solidly Dem (at least 14% from the national figure) from 1836 to 1956 (except for Grant's 2 wins during the Reconstruction). Since then though it has veered wildly, strongly Dem for an election or 2 and then fairly strongly GOP. It might not be just a Clinton factor. It might be a Southerner factor. They voted more Dem than the nation when the Dem was a southerner (George Wallace (IND) in 64, Carter in 76 and 80, Clinton in 92 and 96). But then Johnson and Gore were Southerners and in 64 and 2000 AR swung to the Reps.
So my apologies to elcorazon. I didn't give as much consideration to placement of every state as I should have.
If I could work out how to create my prediction map I would do so. Is there a further registration needed to do that?

Yes, Go to the prediction page and there should be a link that say, create my prediction. Once you click on that it should take you to another page where you can log-in or do that further registration you need.