States going Republican in 2012

[California8429]

Which of these states do you think will be won by the Republican presidential ticket in 2012?

your poll only allows for one vote. is it the most likely state?

[California8429]

Indiana then North Carolina then Virginia

[California8429]

Obama will win re-election in 2012.

If the shift, in Election 2012, is an additional 3 points (which was the cases with the re-elections of 1996 Bill Clinton and 2004 George W. Bush) and, baring in mind that Woodrow Wilson is the only two-term president with a lower electoral-vote count in his re-election, I could see a couple (or few) states trading colors. Under that scenario, I'd see it potentially going this way.…


2008 Obama States as 2012 Status Quo: 28 + Neb. #02 + D.C. = 359 electoral votes
[-6 adjusted]

2012 Republican Pickups: North Carolina (15), Indiana (11), and Nebraska #02 (1) = 27 electoral votes

2012 Democratic Pickups: Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Missouri (11), and Montana (3) = 41 electoral votes

2012 Outcome
2012 Popular Vote: Obama 54.37%; Republican 44.10%
2012 Electoral Votes: Obama 373 electoral votes; Republican 165 electoral votes

Don't be ridiculous (I know, its your nature). Arizona, Missouri, Georgia, and Montana aren't going to be picked up by Obama in 2012.

Obama will be on the defensive in all of the states mentioned in this thread.