States that will fall away from Obama in 2012

[Derek]

Most likely is Indiana and I don't even believe he won it in 2008. It was ACORN cheating to give him IN, NC, OH, FL, VA, NV, and CO. The media's polls almost match up cuz they are also biased left. Without all the second graders, deceased, and disney characters, Obama loses NC, VA, IN, OH, and FL easily.

[Derek]

I'd like to see him try to get Indiana from Mitch Daniels lol. North Carolina is gone too. He has already worn out his welcome in the south.

1. Indiana
2. North Carolina
3. Virginia
4. Florida
5. Colorado
6. Nevada
7. Ohio
8. Iowa
9. Wisconsin
10. New Hampshire
11. Pennsylvania
12. New Mexico

This is in likeliness ranking. I'd say the first 7 on this list are gone at  this point.

[Derek]

I'd like to see him try to get Indiana from Mitch Daniels lol. North Carolina is gone too. He has already worn out his welcome in the south.

1. Indiana
2. North Carolina
3. Virginia
4. Florida
5. Colorado
6. Nevada
7. Ohio
8. Iowa
9. Wisconsin
10. New Hampshire
11. Pennsylvania
12. New Mexico

This is in likeliness ranking. I'd say the first 7 on this list are gone at  this point.

The most recent poll in North Carolina (it was within the last moth) showed that Barack Obama had an approval rating among likely voters of the 2010 midterm election of 47%, which is probably enough with which to win. 44% is the break-even point for an incumbent.

No 50% is the break even point! Any time the incumbent's approval rating is below 50%, then undecided vote has gone unanimously to the challenger since 1948. Besides, a real conservative will rally the base in the south with issues like the NAMBLA member as the school czar, Jeremiah Wright, and the second amendment. It happens every election a conservative runs.

[Derek]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

What makes you believe this?

[Derek]

Obama became the first Democratic presidential candidate to win North Carolina since 1976 when he edged John McCain 50% to 49% in the 2008 election. Now, 41% of the state’s voters approve of his performance as president, while 57% disapprove, marking virtually no change from a month ago. This includes 29% who Strongly Approve and 43% who Strongly Disapprove. This is comparable to Obama’s job approval ratings nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.