The Official Absentee & Early Voting Reports Thread

[nhmagic]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

Lookin good for us folks!  A breakdown summary from Jay Cost:

Hamilton (Cincinnati) is just under 2:1 Rs, a net gain of just under 7 points for the Republicans over 08.

Franklin (Columbus) which went for Obama by 21(!) shows a very small but steadily increasing R lead in total votes (+5893) for a significant swing (+9 over 08 absentees, +26 overall for Rs).

Summit: important county near Cleveland, 1/4m voters, went for Obama by almost 18 points: Rs only 1300 back in total votes, or 5% difference (in 08 they lost by almost three to one).

Hardin: GOP had a 1400-1100 lead in 08. It's already three to one Rs, and about one third of total GOP ballots are in. Dems down in total requests by 2500 (!)

Logan: no 2008 data (McCain won by 26.5) Rs up four to one.

Pickaway: Rs up almost two to one---lost by 1000 absentee votes in 08 but went overall for McCain by 21.5.

Washington: Rs up two to one, absentees in 08 were three to two (McCain won by 15.5).

[nhmagic]

Of course R's are going to be doing better. Ohio doesn't have party registration. Your "registration" is based on which primary you voted in. The Republicans had a contested presidential primary in Ohio; the Democrats had nothing to vote for.

This isnt registration, its early and absentee ballot returns for the GENERAL ELECTION.  You don't have to vote in a primary to request an absentee ballot.  This was a measure of Obama's enthusiasm in 08. It is now a measure of republican enthusiasm in 2012.

[nhmagic]

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http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/en-US/declareorchangeparty.aspx

Now, one explanation for those numbers is that all the polls are wrong and Democratic enthusiasm is down massively. Or the other is that there are fewer "registered Democrats" this year because all being a "registered Democrat" means in Ohio is that you voted in the last Democratic primary.

Yeah, but if you're a democrat in 2008, and you dont vote in 2010, that still means youre registered as a democrat in 2012 by that standard.  They don't just reregister your party as an unaffiliated voter.  You have to request an absentee ballot to get one, which means that democrats still aren't requesting ballots at the rate republicans are.  That means enthusiasm is down.