Do polls really matter before October?

[Obama24]

I feel like while some voters may have their preferences, a lot can happen between now and early November. How many voters are there who don't make their choice until after the debates, or until election day itself?

Can any poll taken before around October as such be considered reliable?

[Obama24]

I say no, and always have, since Americans have short-term memories and nothing ever seems to matter unless it happens in the last few weeks. Look at 2016. Trump was done in early October, post-pussygate, then a few weeks later Comey opens his big mouth and the campaign ends with Clinton's emails in the spotlight in the home-stretch.

Why I think some are getting despondent is because a lot has been happening already in these first few months, yet polls are only moving ever so slightly in one way, or noticeably in the other.

It seems like it's going to take something significant in Biden's favor, or significant against Trump to move the polls to where many of us want them to be.

This assumes polls this year are even worth trusting, which I am still somewhat skeptical of.

My prediction is that you will see a conviction of Trump happen around the summer, and another right around the debates, which will cripple his campaign.

As it stands right now, meaning, were the election to be held this week, I think Trump would pull off a narrow victory like Clinton in 1992 in terms of magnitude in terms of the popular vote, and like 2016 in terms of the electoral vote.

But, I do think he will be convicted on one or more charges and be in the process of appeal come debate time, and I think Biden's team will hammer at his status as a convicted felon throughout the fall and during the debates rather than truly debate anything of substance - and I think using that, Biden will narrowly win.

[Obama24]

I say no, and always have, since Americans have short-term memories and nothing ever seems to matter unless it happens in the last few weeks. Look at 2016. Trump was done in early October, post-pussygate, then a few weeks later Comey opens his big mouth and the campaign ends with Clinton's emails in the spotlight in the home-stretch.

Why I think some are getting despondent is because a lot has been happening already in these first few months, yet polls are only moving ever so slightly in one way, or noticeably in the other.

It seems like it's going to take something significant in Biden's favor, or significant against Trump to move the polls to where many of us want them to be.

This assumes polls this year are even worth trusting, which I am still somewhat skeptical of.

My prediction is that you will see a conviction of Trump happen around the summer, and another right around the debates, which will cripple his campaign.

As it stands right now, meaning, were the election to be held this week, I think Trump would pull off a narrow victory like Clinton in 1992 in terms of magnitude in terms of the popular vote, and like 2016 in terms of the electoral vote.

But, I do think he will be convicted on one or more charges and be in the process of appeal come debate time, and I think Biden's team will hammer at his status as a convicted felon throughout the fall and during the debates rather than truly debate anything of substance - and I think using that, Biden will narrowly win.

A conviction might happen, but only with the New York trial, and it remains to be seen if Americans will care or if Trump will weasel his way out of the negative perceptions of it. That might be bring too pessimistic though, as polls even now suggest Trump would lose support and Biden would gain if a conviction occurs. Can we trust them to remain that way? I don't know.

The Georgia trial starts in the summer and will probably not conclude until next year, if it's allowed to proceed.

Both Jack Smith trials might as well be as good as delayed in perpetuity.

So, we're left with the New York trial which does possibly have the highest potential of Trump getting acquitted or a hung jury/mistrial.

I do think a conviction will dampen his polling at least. Trump's appeal to many of his followers was based around his perception or his assertation that he was a "winner." There's nothing victorious about a criminal conviction. And I actually think, despite many of them feeling his trials are show trials, that a part of them will be hesitant to supported a convicted felon.

There is something in the American psyche that immediately looks down upon criminals. I feel like a conviction might wake a few supporters up I also can't think many outside of the hardcore cultists are going to see him as a martyr-like figure.

I don't know if it would be enough to change the election's outcome, but I do think if he's convicted you'll begin to see Biden consistently leading in polls.