A conviction in the New York trial might come earlier than that.
If the trial's ending could be delayed til the fall somehow, even say until September, you'd have an equivalent of James Comey's 2016 moment, I feel - a decisive blow to the campaign.
If the trial concludes in June, I feel to the low attention span voter it'll be old news by November.
If it concludes in June and Biden spends the next five months making the conviction the centerpiece of his campaign, it won't be a good look. It'll look to your average American like the incumbent kicking the opponent while he's already down. Also, 6 months of hearing "Trump is a felon" will get old after a while to your average Joe, non political voter.
But if it concludes in September or October and it becomes the focus from then to November, it could enable Biden to win.
