2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[mileslunn]

Interesting McFayden stepped down so easily.  While not the ideal outcome for the PCs, it would hardly call it unmitigated disaster.  This seemed more the case of Selinger improving his popularity thus being re-elected, not like here in Ontario where McGuinty has flatlined in popularity and only gone up due to Hudak's drop in popularity.  I wonder if Hudak will do the same, although lets see what the actual results are before speculating.  It does though look like all five provinces this fall will stick with the same party.  I do wonder if this has less to do with moving right or left and more during difficult times, people prefer to stick with what they know rather than try something different.

[mileslunn]

In addition to Quebec, I suspect Alberta will have an election next year.  Considering Redford is a Red Tory, it will be interesting to see if this benefits the WRA or are the Liberals or NDP able to come up the middle in several ridings.  Likewise she is from Calgary and much of Ed Stelmach's waning popularity was due to the fact many in Calgary didn't like the idea of having an Edmonton premier so it is not as simple as a left vs. right.  British Columbia probably won't go to the polls until 2013, but possibly sooner.  In the case of Quebec, I wouldn't be surprised if they have one next year especially considering the infighting in the Parti Quebecois and the fact neither the ADQ, QS, or the proprosed new right of centre alternative party have had enough time to gain any traction.  If Charest waits too long one of those could gain traction.

[mileslunn]

We shall see what will happen but considering that parties on the right seem to always do a bit better than the polls state (I suspect this has mostly to do with the fact the demographics they are strongest amongst are more likely to show up), this should be a blow out.  Mind you I believe Brad Wall has a similiar approval rating to what Danny Williams did in Newfoundland and he won big and the NDP leader has an approval rating similiar to Michael Ignatieff and we all saw how badly he did.  I suspect if the two parties had leaders of equal popularity, the race would be much closer.  And lets remember despit the NDP's big strides elsewhere in the country, they really haven't made much in gains in Saskatchewan over the past 10 years and in fact one could argue the policies they had to adopt to make them competitive nationally hurt them in Saskatchewan but in the case of the federal party at least, it makes more sense to adopt policies that will win in Ontario and Quebec where the seats are.  I also wouldn't be surprised if things get better for them once Brad Wall leaves.  The problem is the party will have a tough time finding someone as popular as him and with expectations very high, this is probably when the NDP will have their best opportunity. 

As for the Liberals, they seem more like a libertarian than Liberal Party never mind the NDP is Saskatchewan is fairly centrist, so they were really crowded out.  It will be interesting to hear though who Ralph Goodale votes for as I know he has always gone Liberal provincially, but I don't believe he that option this time around.

[mileslunn]

Bater is a bit of a cook, but his general platform is really something that you need for the federal party

  Seems a little too pro free market for the federal Liberals.  Lets remember he was opposed to the federal government blocking the takeover of Potash Corporation which the federal Liberals pushed for.  The party also favours privatizing liquor stores which although hardly radical (after all they are private in most other parts of the world) not something I would expect to see in a Liberal platform, more likely something that should be in the Saskatchewan Party's platform.  Also the preamble of policies seems more in line with a classical liberal rather than social liberal.  No arguement with me personally, as I am more of a classical than social liberal, but my point is I am not sure if the federal Liberals would go for this unless you have a similiar situation set up to what you have in BC where the NDP routinely gets 40% of the popular vote and so you have a pro free enterprise coalition to counter them (much like the Social Credit from the 50s through the 80s and the BC Liberals in the past two decades). 

[mileslunn]

We need to make it so whenever we win 170 seats, the NDP and Tories each win 80.

  It will be a few election cycles before the Liberals get to this.  Also I cannot see the Tories and NDP each getting 80.  Either the Liberals will take a more centre-right approach and so they will depress the Tory vote, but help the NDP or take more a centre-left approach and help the Tories but hurt the NDP.  Lets remember the 60s and 70s under Trudeau were much different as the Liberals were more like the NDP today, the PCs like the Liberals today otherwise Red Tories, and the NDP a truly socialist party rather than a modern social democratic one like it is today.  But like most countries we have an older population and a more conservative one, so this won't work.  In 1993 and 2000, you had a divided right and a weak NDP due to the unpopularity of recent provincial NDP governments which were still fresh in people's minds and the Bloc in Quebec to take the Social Democratic vote, while in the 30s, 40s, and 50s the Liberals were more classical liberals, but considering the Tories have adopted many classical liberal policies, this will only work if the Tories get wiped out much like what you have in BC. 

[mileslunn]

True, not always the case, but often is.  In the case of BC, I think also that may have something to do with the motivation of the base.  BC has a very strong and militant union movement and they are very good at getting their supporters out on election day.  The BC Liberals may have been quite right wing in Campbell's first term, but in his second term the policies were pretty centrist.  In fact each election Campbell has run, he toned down his policies, probably because he figured if he veered too far to the right he would be toast plus back in 1996 and 2001 they had to prove to all the right wingers they weren't really Liberals, whereas by 2005 and 2009 everybody knew this.

[mileslunn]

Do you think the snowstorm will have any impact on turnout and also if so who will it impact most.  I know Saskatchewan gets snow every winter, but as in all places, the first snowfall always seems to cause the most problems as people aren't as prepared.

[mileslunn]

I heard Global has already called it.  While maybe a bit early, I think it is pretty much a foregone conclusion as it was going in today that the Saskatchewan Party will win a majority.  Now it comes down to what the vote percentage and seat count will be.

[mileslunn]

It looks like the Liberals will get under 1%.  Anybody know what the record low for the Liberals.

[mileslunn]

It looks like the NDP leader couldn't even win his own seat.  Also using federal ridings, it appears the NDP's wins in Saskatoon were in the Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar and for Regina in Palliser.  Although my guess is using the federal boundaries it would have been a clean sweep for the Saskatchewan Party.  They also took all ridings in Ralph Goodale's riding.  Considering the Liberals weren't running in his area, I wonder which party he voted for?

[mileslunn]

Lingenfelter's seat was the best riding for Ralph Goodale.

  I suspect the Tories would have taken that one had Ralph Goodale not run, mind you the NDP would have made it more competitive.  Considering the Liberals got in single digits in every other Saskatchewan riding, I suspect most were Ralph Goodale votes, not Liberal votes and he appeals to people on both sides of the spectrum.

[mileslunn]

Similiar, although it looks like the NDP provincially is doing even worse, although quite similiar.  I should note in Ontario the results closely corresponded with the 2006 federal election results in Ontario albeit quite different than recent federal.  The NDP was popular vote was not far off their federal counterparts, but the Saskatchewan Party got more or less what the Conservatives + Liberals combined got last May.

[mileslunn]

Actually, in regards to Wascana, don't people say that seat would be NDP if it weren't for Ralph? I'd have to disagree with them, actually, now looking at how the NDP brand isn't as strong there.

 Tough to say, but the Tories were only four points off winning this past May, while the NDP was close to 20 points behind, so unless 80% of Ralph Goodale's personal votes were NDP supporters, I believe the Tories would have taken it.  Maybe back in 2004 if would have been that way in a two way race (lets remember the Liberals were much stronger in Saskatchewan back then), but not 2011.  While the landslide has a lot to do with Wall's personal popularity, I think as Saskatchewan's economy becomes more like Alberta's it shouldn't be too big a surprise if its voting patterns start to become more like Alberta's.  Lets remember even though the NDP deserves a lot of credit for turning the province around in the 90s, the problem is policies on the left have less appeal when you are a have province as opposed to a have not.  In some ways the NDP has become of victim of its own success.

[mileslunn]

Alberta should be interesting although even if the Tories have outlived their usefulness I just cannot see them losing.  The WRA is a little too right wing for urban Alberta, the Liberals are pretty much dead in the water and the NDP is generally too left wing for Alberta. 

Rural Alberta - Should be a battle on the right but I expect the Wild Rose Alliance to pick up some seats, although too early to tell how many.  Lethbridge could be interesting as vote splitting on the right could help the NDP or Liberals slip up the middle.  I suspect the PC + WRA vote in Lethbridge will still exceed 50%. 

Calgary - Largely PC, but maybe a few WRA seats depending on how well they do.  The NDP has never been strong here and the Liberals typically tend to do better when the Tory leader is from Edmonton, whereas Redford is from Calgary thus the results in Calgary will probably more like they were under Klein than Stelmach

Edmonton - The Liberals have taken a hit but should hold a few seats while the NDP has a real chance at gaining, especially with splitting on the right.  The Tories probably won't do as well due to the fact Redford is from Calgary much like Klein struggled in Edmonton, but Stelmach did well.  There is a strong Edmonton-Calgary rivalry in politics too, not just hockey and often whichever city the leader comes from, they do well in that one, while the other city they take a hit.