43rd British Columbia general election

[mileslunn]

So...

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1731382666027483297?s=20

If this happens on e-day great news for NDP since even if right unites, it will be BC Conservatives not BC United who have upper hand and BC Conservatives are too extreme to win in Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island.  Off course some might be name recognition as many don't know who BC United is while confuse BC Conservatives with federal Conservatives.  Although I suspect with Poilievre in charge federally if he makes any endorsement or MPs get involved it will be for BC Conservatives.

[mileslunn]

Will this finally motiviate the BC Conservatives to run a proper campaign with candidates across the province? If they do, I can see them replacing the Liberals BC United as the main opposition.  After a cycle or two, BC United will be reduced to a rump in the wealthier parts of the Lower mainland, and BC will go back to being polarized. The Conservatives will then shift more to the centre, and will probably mirror the policies of the SoCreds.

Which is probably good for NDP long run as BC United if only party on right would be better suited to gain in Lower Mainland than BC Conservatives are but less suited in the interior.  I wouldn't be surprised if BC becomes like Saskatchewan in the 20th century where NDP is natural governing party and wins most of the time while BC Conservatives win whenever they overstay welcome.  Heck maybe instead of uniting pro free enterprise vote as was in 20th century, it might be right wins when progressive vote is split.

[mileslunn]

I guess you could say that the future of politics in BC will put the "British" back into "British Columbia"

Just need NDP to change name to Labour Party and BC United to change to Liberal Democrats and would be totally British.  Actually kind of wondered why called NDP instead of Labour party as in other Anglosphere countries their main social democratic party is called Labour and usually around globe it is Labour, Socialist, or Social Democrat depending on country.  Guessing perhaps in North America socialism became a four letter word and any of the three names sounded too socialistic.

[mileslunn]

What will be interesting is which party comes in second or heck maybe even Greens form official opposition.  I am pretty sure BC United and BC Conservatives will merge before 2028 but whomever comes in second has upper hand and party will look more like that.

If BC United, maybe good in long term as Lower Mainland probably more receptive to them and while your pro-business type isn't exactly popular now, economic policy tends to go in cycles so at least will be able to win when economic conservatism becomes more popular even though unlikely will dominate way pro free enterprise coalition whatever it was called did in past.  Still will always be susceptible to a more right wing takeover and actually think keeping liberal name helped party before as MAGA type crazies see word liberal as a four letter word so they stayed out of power, but rest on centre-right cared more about policies than name so united right minus the crazies. 

BC Conservatives, at moment being populist and more out there seem better positioned to do well as lots of parties across Canada and globe like them doing well.  But with how urban, diverse, and educated BC is, its probably one of the worst provinces for right wing populism.  Will dominate Interior once merged but unlikely to do well in Lower Mainland.  In fact BC might follow path of California which was once a state GOP won most of the time but now is no longer competitive at any level.

That being said there isn't enough time left to merge or even cut a deal to not run candidates against each other.  And even if they did latter I highly doubt would get the combined.  Many BC Conservatives see BC United as another left wing party like BC NDP (they are not) and would just stay home if only choice was BC United.  By same token some more moderate types find BC Conservatives too extreme and would either stay home or plug nose and vote NDP.  A lot of the wealthy ridings BC Liberals used to dominate in Lower Mainland like Vancouver-Quilchena and West Vancouver-Capilano are eerily similar to your Romney-Biden counties in US.  It seems in US & UK your wealthy educated types are seeing big swings to left and I suspect it has little to do with becoming more economically left wing and more their disdain for right wing populism is stronger than dislike of left wing economic policies.  Even in Alberta, you saw this with some fairly well off ridings in Calgary almost going NDP and in Winnipeg NDP did win some and few didn't come closer than ever have before.

So if had a non-compete agreement, would maybe stop an NDP landslide, but NDP would still win a comfortable majority.  And dividing up ridings based on non-compete would be very messy and anger it would create probably would lead to many on other side just staying home and not voting at all.

[mileslunn]

What will be interesting is which party comes in second or heck maybe even Greens form official opposition.  I am pretty sure BC United and BC Conservatives will merge before 2028 but whomever comes in second has upper hand and party will look more like that.

If BC United, maybe good in long term as Lower Mainland probably more receptive to them and while your pro-business type isn't exactly popular now, economic policy tends to go in cycles so at least will be able to win when economic conservatism becomes more popular even though unlikely will dominate way pro free enterprise coalition whatever it was called did in past.  Still will always be susceptible to a more right wing takeover and actually think keeping liberal name helped party before as MAGA type crazies see word liberal as a four letter word so they stayed out of power, but rest on centre-right cared more about policies than name so united right minus the crazies. 

BC Conservatives, at moment being populist and more out there seem better positioned to do well as lots of parties across Canada and globe like them doing well.  But with how urban, diverse, and educated BC is, its probably one of the worst provinces for right wing populism.  Will dominate Interior once merged but unlikely to do well in Lower Mainland.  In fact BC might follow path of California which was once a state GOP won most of the time but now is no longer competitive at any level.

That being said there isn't enough time left to merge or even cut a deal to not run candidates against each other.  And even if they did latter I highly doubt would get the combined.  Many BC Conservatives see BC United as another left wing party like BC NDP (they are not) and would just stay home if only choice was BC United.  By same token some more moderate types find BC Conservatives too extreme and would either stay home or plug nose and vote NDP.  A lot of the wealthy ridings BC Liberals used to dominate in Lower Mainland like Vancouver-Quilchena and West Vancouver-Capilano are eerily similar to your Romney-Biden counties in US.  It seems in US & UK your wealthy educated types are seeing big swings to left and I suspect it has little to do with becoming more economically left wing and more their disdain for right wing populism is stronger than dislike of left wing economic policies.  Even in Alberta, you saw this with some fairly well off ridings in Calgary almost going NDP and in Winnipeg NDP did win some and few didn't come closer than ever have before.

So if had a non-compete agreement, would maybe stop an NDP landslide, but NDP would still win a comfortable majority.  And dividing up ridings based on non-compete would be very messy and anger it would create probably would lead to many on other side just staying home and not voting at all.

there isnt the cpc doing well in polling in bc?

It comes down to vote splits.  Right wing vote at both levels (Conservatives federally while BC United + BC Conservatives provincially) are in low 40s while left wing vote at both levels (Liberals + NDP + Greens federally and NDP + Greens provincially) are in high 50s at both levels.  Conservatives yes have a big lead federally in BC, but still more voting for centre-left parties than parties on right in both levels.  BC's current ideological split is about 58% progressive, 42% conservative so if you have 58% split amongst 3 parties while 42% conservative united behind one banner will have big lead.  By contrast 42% conservative split close to even while 58% progressive mostly behind one party with 10% for another, then landslide for NDP.  Main reason NDP has big lead provincially is they have more or less united BOTH federal NDP and federal Liberal voters under one banner while federal Conservative vote is split fairly equally between BC United and BC Conservatives.

[mileslunn]

Two polls out with very different results

Angus Reid https://angusreid.org/bc-spotlight-election-2024-rustad-falcon-eby/#gsc.tab=0

NDP 43%
BCU 22%
BCC 22%
GRN 12%

Mainstreet https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/download/mainstreet-british-columbia-march-2024-public/

NDP 40%
BCC 34%
BCU 15%
GRN 10%

So NDP is within margin of error in two but split on right radically different.  Angus-Reid would result in NDP landslide while Mainstreet would result in BC Conservatives forming official opposition and momentum suggests upset while very unlikely not impossible.  Probably need a third one in field to see who is right.  NDP still heavily favoured to win, but they have some vulnerabilities.  Rebranding for BC Liberals has been a massive flop.  BC Conservatives I suspect doing well more due to riding off coattails of federal party but quite skeptical they can crack 30% as when come under more scrutiny suspect fall back.  Still if Angus-Reid is final outcome likely merger and new leader with neither having an edge.  If Mainstreet correct possible BC United implodes and BC Conservatives become the new centre-right coalition.  Being more right wing and populists, probably will struggle to achieve same success in Lower Mainland BC Liberals did.

[mileslunn]

Two polls out with very different results

Angus Reid https://angusreid.org/bc-spotlight-election-2024-rustad-falcon-eby/#gsc.tab=0

NDP 43%
BCU 22%
BCC 22%
GRN 12%

Mainstreet https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/download/mainstreet-british-columbia-march-2024-public/

NDP 40%
BCC 34%
BCU 15%
GRN 10%

So NDP is within margin of error in two but split on right radically different.  Angus-Reid would result in NDP landslide while Mainstreet would result in BC Conservatives forming official opposition and momentum suggests upset while very unlikely not impossible.  Probably need a third one in field to see who is right.  NDP still heavily favoured to win, but they have some vulnerabilities.  Rebranding for BC Liberals has been a massive flop.  BC Conservatives I suspect doing well more due to riding off coattails of federal party but quite skeptical they can crack 30% as when come under more scrutiny suspect fall back.  Still if Angus-Reid is final outcome likely merger and new leader with neither having an edge.  If Mainstreet correct possible BC United implodes and BC Conservatives become the new centre-right coalition.  Being more right wing and populists, probably will struggle to achieve same success in Lower Mainland BC Liberals did.

The Mainstreet one is a push poll, asking for federal intentions first and then asking for provincial, stating that Poilievre supports the Conservatives.

I tend to believe Angus-Reid numbers more although I suspect during campaign centre-right voters likely do swing mostly towards one of two parties, but which one is unclear.  However I don't think it will be enough to beat NDP.  Even if right united I still think NDP would win albeit in that scenario would be a reduced majority from 2020 whereas with split likely a larger majority than 2020.

[mileslunn]

While reason she swung over is questionable, it does seem covid radicalized quite a few.  I also think modern left is too closely tied with academia and social activists who focus too much on issues many see as peripheral, not bread and butter ones.  Still even if right winning blue collar on cultural issues, not sure they are economic issues necessarily.  I think much as you see on right, its more an axis than linear line and those who were economically left but socially right seem to be swinging over to right wing parties.  But at same time those who are economically right but socially left progressive parties are having some success amongst. 

On twitter, Christy Clark's ex husband Mark Marissen complained BC United has swung too much to right trying to be like BC Conservatives and he would be going NDP this fall so for every Gwen O'Mahony types, you probably get people like Mark Marissen in other direction. 

I actually think Wab Kinew is type progressives need as he seems to be able to appeal to both centrists and traditional blue collar and very much focuses on pocket book issues.  He is in some ways like Horgan, whereas while early and will see what happens in campaign, I get impression Eby is more like Trudeau or Wynne who have had issues.

[mileslunn]

While reason she swung over is questionable, it does seem covid radicalized quite a few.  I also think modern left is too closely tied with academia and social activists who focus too much on issues many see as peripheral, not bread and butter ones.

The right is just as guilty of this. Case in point.

Absolutely thus why you are getting sorting with people going in both directions and a re-alignment rather than just one directional.

[mileslunn]

Rumours are the government could call an early election.

Very unlikely. Eby has said on many occasions he wouldn't and they NDP only just started nominating candidates this weekend.

This rumor has been thrown out since Eby won the leadership.

Eby's wife is pregnant and expecting a baby in June so probably doesn't want to be on campaign trail for that.

[mileslunn]

Well well, maybe this will be a closer race than thought https://press.liaisonstrategies.ca/bc-ndp-lead-bc-conservatives-by/ .  It is one poll and I think discrepancy is Angus-Reid mentions BC United was formerly BC Liberals whereas this one does not.  Still BC Conservatives surging is real.  How big a threat they present to NDP, tough to say.  Are rather right wing for BC so my thinking is once come under greater scrutiny they fall back especially in Lower Mainland.  Still it would not shock me one bit if BC United + BC Conservatives get more votes than NDP although BC NDP + BC Greens probably still get more votes than right does.  If like Angus-Reid probably merge.  If like Liason, BC United likely implodes and BC Conservatives become new right wing coalition in 2028 much like Social Credit was from 1952-1986 and BC Liberals from 2001 to 2020.

[mileslunn]

Well well, maybe this will be a closer race than thought https://press.liaisonstrategies.ca/bc-ndp-lead-bc-conservatives-by/ .  It is one poll and I think discrepancy is Angus-Reid mentions BC United was formerly BC Liberals whereas this one does not.  Still BC Conservatives surging is real.  How big a threat they present to NDP, tough to say.  Are rather right wing for BC so my thinking is once come under greater scrutiny they fall back especially in Lower Mainland.  Still it would not shock me one bit if BC United + BC Conservatives get more votes than NDP although BC NDP + BC Greens probably still get more votes than right does.  If like Angus-Reid probably merge.  If like Liason, BC United likely implodes and BC Conservatives become new right wing coalition in 2028 much like Social Credit was from 1952-1986 and BC Liberals from 2001 to 2020.

I don't think it would shock *anyone* if BC United and BC Cons combined outpoll the NDP, because that's more of a statistical-noise thing, and a lot of people would agree that how the BCNDP did last time around was "high end" for them rather than a permanent new normal.  It's only relevant to those who obsessively view politics through a Duverger prism where the Bill Bennett/Dave Barrett races marked an ideal state of affairs.

And as mentioned, not all BC United types would be on board w/a BC Con big tent, much as not all federal PCs were on board with the "united right" in '04 (and not all NDPers *or* Libs would be on board if the federal parties merged).

As an example of this, not in British Columbia, but in New Brunswick, former Jean Charest era Progressive Conservative M.P John Herron, is seeking the New Brunswick provincial Liberal nomination. Blaine Higgs is probably the closest example of John Rustad given that B.C, like New Brunswick, isn't resource dominated right wing like Alberta or Saskatchewan. Of course, New Brunswick does have the Irving dominance unlike British Columbia.

New Brunswick is also a lot more rural and there is the Baptist belt in South while BC has Bible belt in Fraser Valley, with more moving out from GVRD that is weakening considerably.

[mileslunn]

I don't think BC Conservatives will win.  Sure surprises can happen but I suspect if other polls show them tied or ahead, they will come under scrutiny and will win almost no seats or maybe zero west of Langley meaning cannot form government.  I do think a wake up call for BC NDP not to get complacent but I still think there is a 90%+ chance NDP wins.  BC is not a right wing province and while there is some support for conservative policies, not to level poll suggests.  Now in 2028, I could see them winning as right coalesces, they iron out the rougher edges and NDP being in power for 11 years means strong time for a change view.  Also with Poilievre, I don't think he will do as well as some polls say.  I think Conservatives get around 40% but quite possible fall into 30s if Trudeau is not Liberal leader or NDP distances themselves more from Trudeau. 

[mileslunn]

I feel like in a BC NDP vs Cons race, the NDP is the establishment choice, though.

This seems more like US would be had Sanders instead of Biden won Democrat nomination in 2020 and what would establishment GOP who hated Trump do in that case?  Biden was centrist enough easy to support him but if Sanders was chosen I bet they would have run a third party candidate so in a roundabout way I am saying your business types who supported BC Liberals but cannot stand right wing populism are probably sticking with BC United even if that is all they have left.

[mileslunn]

I agree Rustad riding high mainly due to federal party and I think when he comes under greater scrutiny likely falls.  BC Conservatives have lots of crazy candidates and I have found bozo eruptions tend to sink parties.  Yes we are in era where populism is at high point and some like more crazy types due to unhappiness with status quo but I don't think it is anywhere near enough to win.  If you look at demographics where right wing populists are doing well, BC largely lacks them.  Sure Interior may be favorable but Lower Mainland and most of Vancouver Island except maybe a few resource areas in north are generally hostile to this. 

I think in 2028 if merge and not too crazy could win as by then NDP in power for 11 years so desire for change will be high.  At same time if Poilievre becomes very unpopular (and good chance he does) that might save NDP.  Eby is by many seen as too much like Trudeau in that both are unabashed urban progressives.  Horgan was a progressive too but more your traditional blue collar type so had more crossover appeal.  But if Poilievre is PM, people may want a progressive premier to push back against his unpopular right wing policies.