Can Justin Trudeau win next election in Canada?

[mileslunn]

Polls look really bad for Trudeau and winning next election seems unlikely, but wondering what people here think his chances are of having a come back.  While it is rare to come from that far behind, it is not totally unheard of.  I would say chances of Liberal majority with him as leader is probably in low single digits.  A minority whereby win most seats probably around 10% while chances of forming government by denying Tories a majority and then having a supply and confidence with NDP and possibly including BQ if needed is around 30%.  40% chance Tories fall short of majority and 20% chance Liberals stay on due to that while 10% chance they let Tories govern.

[mileslunn]

I do wonder if another thing that might shift things away from the Tories is if the country is on fire again. Right now climate change isn't something that people are worried enough about and Poilievre running on 'axing the tax' might not be as effective if the country goes through another summer of horrible forest fires. People don't mind the mild winter we're having, but come summer time people might get worried about the environment again.

I definitely think there is that, but I also find carbon tax support highly cyclical.  Tends to be popular when economy is doing well, not so popular when doing poorly.  When Dion announced his in 2007, polls showed public supported it, but then Great Recession hit and made it less popular.  In 2019 Scheer got hurt over his lack of support on climate change.  Although to be fair Liberals promised carbon tax wouldn't go over $50/ton so they came across as more centrist option on issue whereas now no party is really taking centrist approach.  Liberals and NDP go all in, Tories do nothing.

That being said it will be summer of 2025 that will be key not 2024.  We are however supposed to transit to a La Nina from current El Nino and usually La Nina years tend to be cooler while El Nino warm.  But by 2025 likely neither in El Nino or La Nina.

[mileslunn]

I do wonder if a Trump victory might change things. If Trudeau can paint Poilievre as being cut from the same cloth as Trump, he could curb Poilievre's popularity. It's a huge hail Mary at this point, but it's the only way to move the needle at this point, I think.

I've seen maybe 4 minutes of Poilievre and he doesn't come across very Trumpy.  A bit snarky, but he doesn't seem as dumb as Trump, his thoughts are more focused.  It's very hard to listen to Trump speak because he's all over the place (probably why the dummies like him, they just wait to hear the code words then hoot and holler or boo and hiss depending on what code word the lead chimp said).  And snark is a good balance to whatever it is Trudeau does.

Well, their personas are entirely different, obviously. Trudeau would have to attack Skippy's policies as Trumpian. How he supported the convoy, how some of his MPs are against abortion, etc. Lots of fodder there. Anything illiberal Trump does, Trudeau can turn around and tell Canadians that PP is going to do the same thing here.

Of course, I'm grasping at straws here, but this is the only conceivable way of turning around this sinking ship, I think.

And also only works if Trump wins which is far from certain.  Very possible he loses again.  In some ways going this Fall would be best to take advantage of that but would have to start in August and end in September to avoid conflicting with three provincial elections (British Columbia, New Brunswick, and Saskatchewan).