Swedish election 2010

[DL]

Of course in Norway, the Centre Party has had an alliance with the Labour party for sometime so why wouldn't they do it in Sweden as well?

Sweden seems to have done very well with having the Social Democrats in power for what? 70 out of the last 80 years?? and every time the "bourgeois parties" have governed all it has led to has been chaos and soaring deficits.

[DL]

Maud Olofsson has been going around latly saying that it would be one of the most devestating things ever to happen for Sweden to have Lars Ohly and his communist ilk enter goverment. She can't backpeddle on that without losing all credibility and half her party. And Sahlin can't form a coalition without the Left Party. 

I don't believe that the Left Party has ever formed an actual coalition government with the Social Democrats. The SDs have only won an absolute majority once in Swedish political history - all the other times they have formed minority governments where all cabinet ministers were Social Democrats but where the Greens and the Left party provided external support. 

[DL]

Too bad I never suggested that. The idea that the Swedish right in government has brought chaos and deficits is utterly ridiculous and idiotic.

Let's take a trip down memory lane. The two times the rightwing parties have governed in Sweden were 1976-1982 - total flop - governments collapsing over and over, high inflation, soaring deficits, recession. Then Swedes came to their senses and brought back the SD in 1982 and then all was well again. Then in 1991-1994, people decided to experiment with the right again under Carl Bildt - again chaotic government, soaring inflation, deficits, recession etc... and Bildt was crushed in 1994 when he ran for re-election.

[DL]

"As I pointed out there are suburbs similar to the American ones but they have the distinct classification of "villaförort" (villa being another intranslatable word, as far as I know). "

I speak some Swedish - I always thought that "villa" was the Swedish word for a detached single family home in an urban area (ie: not a farmhouse)

[DL]

Like any city, Stockholm has its rich and poor areas. For example, Sodermalm was historically the "Brooklyn of Stockholm" and voted overwhelmingly for the left. It is now quite gentrified (like much of Brooklyn today too) - but still votes heavily for left-leaning parties.

[DL]

I lived in Stockholm for a year as a student in the late 80s and learned the language etc...

I think the other factor in Sweden is that the "bourgeois" parties tend to NOT to preach any of the rightwing populist socially conservative garbage you see in other countries. In the US, UK, France and many other countries people in the cities get turned off the small "c" conservative parties because they get bogged down in that. That doesn't seem to happen as much in Sweden. so in Sweden there is very much a class-based left/right cleavage on economic issues and it doesn't seem to get side tracked by social issues etc...

In Canada, where I live, the Conservatives used to do quite well in Toronto and Vancouver and would win seats in the middle of the city - then they became more of a GOP style populist, socially conservative party that was into "God and guns" and now they hold no seats at all in any of the biggest cities and they ran fourth behind even the Green party in a byelection in Toronto Centre - a riding they won as recently as the late 80s!

All that being said, Sweden is not the only country where city centres vote for the more conservative parties. In Germany, the CDU seems to win constituencies in the middle of Frankfurt and Dusseldorf even when they are doing badly nationwide. In Italy, Milan is a big stronghold for that pig Berlusconi. Even Florence which over is a major leftwing stronghold - I think I read that the inner city where all the tourist sights are tend to vote for the "right" since you need to be a millionaire to be able to afford to live there.

[DL]

What do people think about my earlier comment about how the "bourgeois" parties have not fallen for the kind of populist socially conservative rhetoric that rightwing parties in other countries have adopted which tends to turn off urban voters.

[DL]

So, I guess what is very unusual in Swedish politics is the fact that Stockholm itself tends to vote much more for the rightwing parties than does the country as a whole. I can think of lots of examples of countries where the major capitals vote to the LEFT of the country as a whole (i.e. Canada and the US - where the GOP and the Conservatives practically don't exist in the cities), or the UK where Labour did a lot better in London than across England, or France where Paris now leans slightly to the left compared to all of France. In Germany, Berlin has always been known as "red Berlin" back to the pre-war period when it was a bulwark against Nazism and elected lots of Socialists and Communists. I think that the Labor parties in New Zealand and Australia tend to win most of the seats in the major cities.

I can also think of countries like Norway or Spain where for the most part the capital is a bellwether where the popular vote tends to closely match the national vote totals. But I think Sweden is quite exceptional in terms of being a country where the biggest city and capital votes significantly to the RIGHT of the rest of the country - and I'm not sure why that is. Some people have talked about gentrification and high cost of housing in Stockholm - but London, Paris and New York are not exactly cheap and they tend to vote to the left of the countries they are in.

[DL]

but London, Paris and New York are not exactly cheap and they tend to vote to the left of the countries they are in.

In Paris, as I said before, it's the bobo vote. "The wallet on the right, the heart on the left".

You know the answer to why New York's Upper East Side isn't a GOP stronghold.

so why no "bobo vote" in Stockholm? I always thought that Stockholm had tons of people making good money but who have a social conscience.

Of course the Upper East Side in New York was a GOP stronghold at one time - back when the GOP was the party of Wall St. and had people like Nelson Rockefeller.  But then the GOP got taken over by Bible-thumping crackpots who want to scrap abortion rights and who hate gays etc... and the Upper East Side dropped the GOP like a hot potato.

[DL]

Isn't it more accurate to describe people as "immigrants" rather than as non-white. There are relatively few Africans or east Asians in Sweden who are genuinely "non-white" - but there are a lot of immigrants from southern Europe and the Middle east who are all White in that they are Caucasian.

[DL]

On a totally different note, I'm curious about something. What would motive someone who lived in a city in Sweden to vote for the Centre party?? My understanding is that they are largely an agrarian party that mainly acts as a lobby group for farmers and mostly pushes for bigger agricultural subsidies. So if you live in the middle of Stockholm why would you want that?

I realize the Centre party also tries be sort of kind of environmentalist (even though farmers probably do more to destroy the environment than anyone!) and that they try to position themselves as kind of sort of "centrist" compared to the Moderaterna - but if you want environmentalism - why not vote Miljo party and if you want a wishy-washy centrist party to act as a brake on the Moderates - why not vote Folkpartiet?

I'm just wondering.... 

[DL]

Miljöpartiet (The Greens) are alright, they agree with C on many core issues, but they unfortunatley come with two awful defects, namly Socialdemocrats and Communists.

Tl;dr I know, but you asked.   

So what exactly is so bad about the Social Democrats? They have governed Sweden for almost the entire 20th century and during that time they took what was one of the poorer countries in Europe and made into a country with just about the highest standard of in the world, they created a range of social programs that have been copied everywhere, they have been fiscally responsible, under them Sweden has often been the least affected during various other economic downturns, they have been progressive on a lot of foreign policy issues and under their stewardship Sweden has been one of the few countries in Europe which  has escape a rightwing populist upsurge of xenophobia against immigrants (look at the Progress party in Norway and the Danish peoples party to see what could have happened but did not in Sweden). I realize no party is perfect - but given how relatively "successful" a country Sweden has been in the last 80 years compared to just about every other country and considering that the SDs have run the country almost all the time - don't you think they should get some credit?

BTW, having lived in Sweden and Canada - which has NEVER had a social democratic government - I found that the SDs were very ideologically flexible, there are things in Sweden like having the choice of private health care and having to pay a fee to see a doctor that existed under an SD government and not even the most rightwing parties in Canada would ever allow.

[DL]

If the Sweden Democrats get into the Riksdag and hold the balance of power - would the Moderate/Centre/Liberal and Christian Democrats be willing to make a deal with those neo-Nazis in order to stay in power? What sort of policy concessions would they make to get the SDs to support them?

[DL]

That was a situation where there was a conflict between who controlled the upper and lower houses of parliament - can't happen now since Sweden abolished its upper house a long time ago.

In Norway there have been deadlocks like this where the Progress Party prevents anyone from forming a government - sometimes they end up with a minority government formed by the small centrist parties.

Could you ever have a situation in Sweden where say the Centre, Liberals, Christian Dems and Greens forms a centrist minority government?

[DL]

I suppose that another issue on the "bourgeois" side is that once upon a time the Moderates, Centre and Liberal parties were closer to having equal or similar levels of strength. Now the Moderates are over 30% while the other right of centre parties are close to falling below the 5% threshold. I wonder whether as the Mods start to gobble up over 80% of the seats in the "Alliance for Sweden" at some point the smaller parties start to lose any identity and find it harder and harder to show that they are getting anything for their supporters.

[DL]

New poll!

This one is Aftonbladet/United Minds which means that it is sort of untested.

M: 29,3%
FP: 6,9%
C: 4,2%
KD: 5,5%

MP: 9,0%
S: 30,2%
V: 5,8%

SD: 6,5%
Others: 2,5%

Blue bloc: 45,9%
Red-Green bloc: 45%

Another thing to consider is that this poll has the Centre Party dangerously close to the 4% they need to have any representation at all and other polls have had the Christian Democrats flirting with the "extinction line". Its not inconceivable that one of the bourgeois parties drops out of the Riksdag and the SD get in - then the fur would really start to fly and you might have a Red/Green government by default.

For so many years Sweden seemed immune to the cancerous xenophobia you see in the Denmark (DPP), Norway (Progress party) and the Netherlands (PVV) - I wonder why its only now that the extreme right is suddenly rearing its head in Sweden?

[DL]

SD really, really, really (did I say really?) loathe, detest and hate Mona Sahlin, the leader of S, so there can never be any kind of even passive support on that side.

She must be an extraordinarily wonderful person if the neo-fascists in the SD hate her so much. I think anyone who is hated so much by a party of skinheads, neo-nazis and racists should wear their hatred as a badge of honour!

[DL]

Who in Sweden still votes for the Folkpartiet?? I know that once upon a time they were sort of a small "l" liberal party kind of like the LibDems in the UK and they got support from teachers and professionals etc...plus a bit of vestigial support from the "free-church" members. But now they seemed to have moved off into some xenophobic lala land of opposition to immigration and i don't see much "social liberalism" left there. Why would anyone vote for them when they can just vote Moderate?

[DL]

Surely there has been some research in Sweden on who the SD voters are and who they used to vote for etc...

[DL]

"Sweden Democratic voters tend to be craftsmen and other such people who are culturally working class but economically fairly well-off. They are thus the anti-thesis of the typical V-voters who are poor academics. "

That sounds EXACTLY like the profile of Front National supporters in France. Peoploe wioth working class roots but with low levels of education and who are often shop keepers and tradespeople etc...This was also the profile of the first people to start voting for Hitler in Germany.

[DL]

What would happen if "red/green" got slightly more seats than "blue", but the SD got into the Riksdag and had the balance of power? Would Reinfeldt try to stay in power with a minority government and the passive support of the SD? This is what the "bourgeois parties" have done in Norway and Denmark with the Danish and Norwegian sister parties of the SD (ie: the DPP and the Progress Party)

[DL]

The main things I recall about Skane (sorry i don't know how to put the halo over the "a" on my keyboard!) is that people there talk like they have marbles in their mouths and also that its much more "continental" than the rest of Sweden, in fact that area was part of Denmark for centuries and so even the political attitudes are more "Danish" than "Swedish" and as we all know Denmark has had populist far right parties in their parliament for many, many years.

The one thing I don't understand about Swedish politics these days is why Stockholm has become such a "bourgeois" stronghold. It didn't used to be and this is very different from just about every other country in Europe. London tends to be far more leftwing in its voting patterns than the rest of England, in Germany, the SPD and Greens tend to totally dominate Berlin and Hamburg etc...Paris was once a Gaullist stronghold - but now its going in the opposite direction and Segolene Royale actually did better in Paris than in the rest of France and if you count the suburbs outside the 20 arrondissements - she would have won. Even if you look at other Nordic countries - Copenhagen tends to be left-leaning compared to the rest of Denmark and Oslo tends to vote similar to the rest of Norway.

So what is the story with Stockholm?

[DL]

No city is more expensive than London - yet it keeps voting Labour!