Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[DL]

Since we've been talking about potential leadership candidates, does any one have any ideas who will run to be Elizabeth May's eventual successor?

If Jo-Ann Roberts wins Victoria, she'll be a contender for the Green leadership.

Very little chance of that. i hear Murray Rankin is leading her by a 2 to 1 margin

[DL]

And Northern Ontario

Nickel Belt
46-35-14

Nipissing-Tismkaming
47-31-16

Sault Ste. Marie
36-35-23

Sudbury
38-31-27

No surprises; I'm glad to see the NDP still looking like they might hold Sudbury, I had that one as Liberal leaning toss-up. Still more or less is.
SSM - always seems to buck the North trends, in 2011 the NDP lost the riding to the CPC during the orange crush. Provincially the NDP vote increased in 95.

Today the screaming headline in the Sudbury newspapers is about local Liberal "fixer" Gerry Lougheed being criminally charged over how the Liberals rigged the Sudbury provincial byelection. A final reminder of that scandal which also involved federal politics cannot help the Liberals in Sudbury in the homestretch

[DL]

Let's say hypothetically we end up with 130 Tories, 125 Liberals and 80 NDPers, does anyone seriously think Harper would survive as PM? Both Trudeau and Mulcair have been 100% clear they will not support a Harper minority gov't and the moment he tries to present a Throne Speech he will be voted down pronto...its true that nothing is engraved in stone on what happens next, but the conventional wisdom is that the GG would refuse to allow a second election without first seeing if someone else can command the confidence of the house - for all the "narcissism of small difference" the reality is there is at least a couple of years worth of laws to pass that are things the Liberals and NDP agree on. I suspect that the Liberals could basically just implement most of their program and give the NDP a few face saving concessions and it would be just like Ontariio 1985-1987.

[DL]

If the final results looks something like this, is it safe to say Mulcair would resign as NDP leader?

It would be completely up to him, there really aren't any "factions" in the party who would want to pressure him to quit and there is no rival for the leadership who would be plotting behind the scenes. For a leader to be forced out there usually has to be a viable successor waiting in the wings