Pennsylvania 2010 - The Official Thread

[TeePee4Prez]

With conservatives groups now making it quite clear that they're looking for someone to challenge Specter and since Toomey apparently said he's not interested, don't be shocked to hear our favorite former Senator's name mentioned. 

I already did my part, sending his people an e-mail, urging him to run. 

You think Santorum will take on Specter in a primary?  I'd love to see that even more than Toomey.  It would be fair to say Schwartz or hell Bob Brady would demolish him.  Toomey at least hasn't had anything controversial on his plate.

[TeePee4Prez]

Good lets see Santorum get smacked around by a liberal this time.

Interestingly, Torsella is originally from upstate PA (Berwick, I think) and me thinks he would do better amongst people in Northeastern PA.  Torsella is more of a centrist albeit not as much as Casey.  If I were to guess, I'd say he'd be about a Clare McCaskill politically.  He would absolutely demolish Santorum or Toomey and would give Specter a good run.   

[TeePee4Prez]

Why a superstar might not be needed to beat Specter - http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/hl_20090211_9594.php

It just goes over what we typically talk about here but it's the truth. A second or third tier candidate could beat the guy. This Glen Meakem guy (a Pittsburgh area millionaire and radio host) might be our shot. He said he is not a candidate right now but he's absolutely focused on seeing Specter get a primary challenge - http://community.post-gazette.com/blogs/earlyreturns/archive/2009/02/10/meakem-for-senate.aspx


I will almost definitely prefer Meakem to Luksik so I hope he does it.

Good article.  Now this guy has to win a General Election. 

Just curious Phil, and I'm not trying to be a hack or put you down, but do you have any pragmatism in you our you just like conservatives?  I mean, am I gonna go for the most liberal Dem in a primary?  No.  In fact I'd rather see a Torsella over Schwartz as the nominee due to his electability plus the fact he isn't too conservative.  A Jack Wagner on the other hand would easily have my vote against a Santorum/Toomey, but a moderate to liberal Republican would get consideration in that case.  As for Specter, do you think the risk of losing a GOP seat is worth it to have a more conservative primary challenger?  On our side, sometimes knocking off a conservative Dem is worth it.  Look at Al Wynn in MD-4 against Donna Edwards.  That was clearly worth it due to the strength of the Dems in that district.  I'm just saying if I were in Louisiana, you bet your ass I'd be a HUGE Mary Landrieu supporter despite the fact I disagree with her on many issues because it's the best we're gonna get there.  I'm just curious as to why you seem so confident a pure conservative can carry PA.     

[TeePee4Prez]

I like Gerlach, and he's got geography on his side.  If you ask me, and you should probably ask Phil instead, I'd say you have to be from SEPA these days to survive.  At least as a Republican.  We've lost so much ground there that we need every advantage we can get.

Gerlach would be absolutely perfect for a primary (ok, maybe not "absolutely perfect" for a primary) and for a General.

In the primary, he unites the anti Specter voters. They're looking for basically anyone right now. He also cuts into Specter's SE PA base. If Gerlach gets in this and runs a competent campaign, he wins. There's very little chance for a Specter victory. Gerlach can't be tagged as far right and has the SE PA argument on his side for the General.

In the General, well, like I said the guy isn't a wingnut and can't be labeled as one. He is popular with just enough people in his swing district, meaning no chance of a blow out down here. He'd definitely be more in touch with voters out west and in the T. The thing about Gerlach is that everyone knows he's electable statewide. That's why he's doing this Gubernatorial run. His problem is that the primary is nearly impossible for him to win with so many heavyweights in the running.

I really hope Gerlach does this. He'd definitely get my support before Meakem and Luksik. This is the guy to rally behind with Toomey and Santorum staying out.

I think if the Dems put pressure on Gerlach in 2008, there is a good chance he wouldn't be in Congress right now.  Obama won the district 58-41 and Gerlach barely beat token opposition.  That said, Gerlach running for the Senate makes PA 6 at least a Tossup, if not Lean Dem district.  I have to agree with you that Gerlach would be a better statewide candidate than Santorum or Toomey.  One thing I find odd though, Gerlach isn't much more to the right than Specter which brings me to my next question- Would you support Gerlach over Santorum/Toomey in a primary? 

[TeePee4Prez]

She ran a good race against Murtha in 2006 (so she has serious fundraising connections),

I'm curious how you judge the success of her race in 2006. I didn't see anything firsthand--only the Free Republican reaction and promotion. I don't fault her too much for getting crushed by Murtha, obviously he was impossible to beat that year.

I think she hit 40%. That's good for us there (against Murtha) especially in 2006.

She built herself a nice network. It would be close to perfect for a statewide race.

Well, she would get a few free points with her looks.

[TeePee4Prez]

Give him a big kiss next time, Arlen.

Biden's got a MILF.. pushing GILF of a wife.  I think he might turn Arlen down.

[TeePee4Prez]

Is Specter toast ?

HARRISBURG -- A new statewide poll shows 53 percent of Pennsylvanians -- and 66 percent of Republicans -- want someone to replace Sen. Arlen Specter.

Asked whether they think Specter, a Philadelphia Republican, has done his job well enough to win re-election or whether they'd prefer a "new person" in that job, registered voters by a 53-38 percent margin said it's time to give someone else a chance, according to the poll by Susquehanna Polling and Research. Eight percent were undecided.

The numbers might reflect Specter's vote as one of three Republican senators who enabled passage of President Obama's $787 billion federal stimulus package, said James Lee, president of Harrisburg-based Susquehanna polling. But they reflect long-standing dissatisfaction among Republican conservatives with Specter's record, he said.

If the election were held today, "in a two-person race, Specter is toast" if his challenger is a credible candidate, Lee said. A race with more candidates likely would improve Specter's chances of winning.

"The senator never comments on polls," said Specter spokeswoman Kate Kelly. "There is only one that counts."

The poll surveyed 700 registered voters from Monday through Thursday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

Among registered Republicans, 66 percent favored a new senator and 26 percent backed Specter. The margin of error on that question was plus or minus 5.9 percentage points.

Almost half of registered Democrats (49 percent) favored Specter over someone new (42 percent.) The margin of error was 5 percentage points, Lee said.

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/mostread/s_613850.html

I keep telling some Republicans.  This is why they should renominate Specter.  His voting record isn't all that liberal.  Most of us know another Republican won't get anywhere near 49 percent of Democrats supporting them.  Pick Santorum that number will be single digits, low teens at best amongst Democrats, 80-85 percent Republicans, and 35 percent Indies.. maybe.    Still not enough to win the state as a whole.  Pat Toomey.. ehh, a little bit higher.

[TeePee4Prez]

I'll say that this talk about Specter switching, while not all that serious right now, certainly shouldn't be dismissed. It's his only way of sticking around for another term. He won't win the primary and obviously won't win as an Independent. If he switches, he'd likely win the General and he'd give the Democrats their 60th seat. Just imagine the hell that would break loose.

And it's possible because, as we all know,  Arlen is all about Arlen...

Specter still votes conservative on some issues.  Would he pull a Linc Chafee?  Time would tell.  Hey, if he pulls a Jim Jeffords- great!

[TeePee4Prez]

I'll say that this talk about Specter switching, while not all that serious right now, certainly shouldn't be dismissed. It's his only way of sticking around for another term. He won't win the primary and obviously won't win as an Independent. If he switches, he'd likely win the General and he'd give the Democrats their 60th seat. Just imagine the hell that would break loose.

And it's possible because, as we all know,  Arlen is all about Arlen...

Specter still votes conservative on some issues.  Would he pull a Linc Chafee?  Time would tell.  Hey, if he pulls a Jim Jeffords- great!

Specter may be conservative on crime and punishment, the war, taxes, trade, drilling, and gun control. But don't forget his liberal record on affirmative action and tort reform. These issues clearly make him a bleeding heart.

Don't troll here.

Flyers (who has a brain) will admit that Specter is a liberal on much more than that.

I'd add reproudctive rights/choice (somewhat) and labor issues.  Even trade he voted nay on CAFTA.  Thing with him is you don't know where he's going and he'd give Democrats the chills on certain issues.  It seems in politics if someone bucks the party line an awful lot such as Nelson, Lieberman, Lugar, Hagel, McCain (until 2007), Snowe, Collins, and our subject Arlen, etc., they're more liked by the other party than their own because of the media attention paid to them.  The general public and even some people in here don't understand the totality of a candidate's voting record.  For instance, I would vote for Joe Lieberman over Ron Paul in a heartbeat because I know MOST of his views align with mine as opposed to Paul.  On the war and a few social issues, I'm 100% with Paul, but on other views I'm scared to death of him.

[TeePee4Prez]

I'll say that this talk about Specter switching, while not all that serious right now, certainly shouldn't be dismissed. It's his only way of sticking around for another term. He won't win the primary and obviously won't win as an Independent. If he switches, he'd likely win the General and he'd give the Democrats their 60th seat. Just imagine the hell that would break loose.

And it's possible because, as we all know,  Arlen is all about Arlen...

Specter still votes conservative on some issues.  Would he pull a Linc Chafee?  Time would tell.  Hey, if he pulls a Jim Jeffords- great!

Specter may be conservative on crime and punishment, the war, taxes, trade, drilling, and gun control. But don't forget his liberal record on affirmative action and tort reform. These issues clearly make him a bleeding heart.

Don't troll here.

Flyers (who has a brain) will admit that Specter is a liberal on much more than that.

I'd add reproudctive rights/choice (somewhat) and labor issues.  Even trade he voted nay on CAFTA. 

He's solidly Pro Choice (except for Partial Birth abortion but many Pro Choicers are against it). Maybe he's not 100% but pretty damn close.

He's also socially liberal on other issues but certain members don't consider those "real issues."

 

I should rephrase as largely pro-choice, but IIRC there was an issue Specter was more conservative than me on and it wasn't partial birth.

Ok, there were probably a few more issues, but his ratings lean conservative.  If you feel the gamble's worth it with a more conservative candidate- give it a shot.  Was I happy with Casey Jr. saying he'd support Sam Alito's confirmation?  HELL NO, but I thought he was better than Rick Santorum.  So far though, I haven't had too many complaints with Casey except for his stem cell votes which.. yeah are close to non-negotiable for me for personal/medical reasons.   

[TeePee4Prez]

I'll say that this talk about Specter switching, while not all that serious right now, certainly shouldn't be dismissed. It's his only way of sticking around for another term. He won't win the primary and obviously won't win as an Independent. If he switches, he'd likely win the General and he'd give the Democrats their 60th seat. Just imagine the hell that would break loose.

And it's possible because, as we all know,  Arlen is all about Arlen...

Specter still votes conservative on some issues.  Would he pull a Linc Chafee?  Time would tell.  Hey, if he pulls a Jim Jeffords- great!

Specter may be conservative on crime and punishment, the war, taxes, trade, drilling, and gun control. But don't forget his liberal record on affirmative action and tort reform. These issues clearly make him a bleeding heart.

Don't troll here.

Flyers (who has a brain) will admit that Specter is a liberal on much more than that.

I'd add reproudctive rights/choice (somewhat) and labor issues.  Even trade he voted nay on CAFTA. 

Sure, while he voted aye on six other trade agreements.

Dude, I was just pointing out one thing.  Not like I love Arlen Specter, but his record is nearly dead center on both issues.  Just the facts, man!

[TeePee4Prez]

I'll say that this talk about Specter switching, while not all that serious right now, certainly shouldn't be dismissed. It's his only way of sticking around for another term. He won't win the primary and obviously won't win as an Independent. If he switches, he'd likely win the General and he'd give the Democrats their 60th seat. Just imagine the hell that would break loose.

And it's possible because, as we all know,  Arlen is all about Arlen...

Specter still votes conservative on some issues.  Would he pull a Linc Chafee?  Time would tell.  Hey, if he pulls a Jim Jeffords- great!

Specter may be conservative on crime and punishment, the war, taxes, trade, drilling, and gun control. But don't forget his liberal record on affirmative action and tort reform. These issues clearly make him a bleeding heart.

Don't troll here.

Flyers (who has a brain) will admit that Specter is a liberal on much more than that.

I'd add reproudctive rights/choice (somewhat) and labor issues.  Even trade he voted nay on CAFTA. 

Sure, while he voted aye on six other trade agreements.

Dude, I was just pointing out one thing.  Not like I love Arlen Specter, but his record is nearly dead center on both issues.  Just the facts, man!

So I'm having trouble understanding. If he votes in favor of six trade agreements, and votes against one, he's a centrist?

Ok, center-right maybe a hair more than Snowe or Collins.  He's a dying breed of sane Republicans. 

[TeePee4Prez]

So even if Laffey had not run against him, Chafee still would have lost most likely.

Yeah, that's what us normals have said from the beginning. The man had a 62% approval rating on Election day and still lost by about eight points. He wasn't going to win. They wanted a Democrat elected.

Not to bring up a previous point, but that link you provided shows in a General, Toomey would have a strong uphill battle to climb.  Could he make up for it in the Lehigh Valley and elsewhere?

[TeePee4Prez]

Not to bring up a previous point, but that link you provided shows in a General, Toomey would have a strong uphill battle to climb.  Could he make up for it in the Lehigh Valley and elsewhere?

I'm far from an expert on Pennsylvania politics, but the Lehigh Valley is only 1/19 of the state's population and I don't think it pays dividends in Scranton or Wilks-Barre.

The Lehigh Valley is a critical swing area though.  Despite the Jewish popiluation only being 2% of the nation, many political scientists also consider then a deciding factor because of their presence in states like Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Ohio, and Florida.

[TeePee4Prez]

...please realize that the Dems were in on it as well. They knew that they wouldn't get their ideal plan since they weren't in the majority but don't fall for the hack arguments that this is just the Republicans fault. The Dems make their deals, too, my friends.

What on Earth did Democrats contribute to this map? It was one of the most lopsided maps in the country. Any advantages to Democrats came out of miscalculations by Republicans (PA-13 and PA-4), not because the Democrats had any say in the outcome.

PA 13 was a great monstrosity.. for the Democrats!  I definitely think the carvings out of the district to PA 8 helped Pat Murphy in 2006.

[TeePee4Prez]

And before anyone says that the 65th is a ward full of liberal to moderate Republicans (it's actually populist), Al Taubenberger - the most conservative candidate by far - won almost every division in the 2004 PA 13 primary with Melissa Brown coming in a very close second in many. Now it's also true that Taubenberg was the most well known candidate because he's an NE Philly guy. He ran in 2002 as well but so did Melissa Brown and she actually did well here in the 2002 General so for Taubenberger to win so easily is a sign that the Republicans here are clearly right wing. Ellen Bard - the most liberal candidate in the race - was blown out almost everywhere.

65th ward totals:

Taubenberger - 416 votes (45%)
Brown - 375 votes (40%)
Bard - 135 votes (15%)

My precinct:

Taubenberger - 37 votes (43%)
Brown - 35 votes (40%)
Bard - 15 votes (17%)

Ahh,  Tauben
             berger

I'm surprised he didn't do better in the Northeast.  He came off as a right winged, yet somewhat pro-business populist which is what most NE Republicans are.  I think Brown won the NE IIRC, but Tauben
                              berger came in a close 2nd.  I know our good buddy did well in some areas.  I'm actually surprised how well Bard did all things considered.  Her views are barely to the right of mine.  Say, should we resurrect the old PA 13 thread?  If Schwartz declares for the Senate, there will be a race yet again.

[TeePee4Prez]

http://blogs.mcall.com/penn_ave/2009/03/shapiro-meets-with-dscc-in-washington.html

Oh, how I'd love to see him and Schwartz go at it.

Shapiro would be wise to seek Schwartz's seat and Schwartz run for Senate.  I'm sure the powers that be will have a meeting before all's said and done.

[TeePee4Prez]

Here's my prediction for the Senate race for PA. Feel free to tear it down.

1. I think the card check vote will never get the 60 votes it needs to come to the floor. the Democrats said they would not call it to a vote unless they had the 60 votes. So Specter may dodge that one.

2. He will not switch parties. The more I read about this race and the more I learn about Arlen, I believe he will go into the primary as a Republican.

3. Luksik entering the race may fracture the conservative vote somewhat so it will not be uniformly behind Toomey.

4. Specter will have to go on a huge voter signup, switching a lot of those moderate Republicans who registered as Democrats for the 2008 primary back over. Otherwise, he's toast, and hopefully he realizes that (I've read his staff has acknowledged that).

5. I can't predict the result of the primary. I do think Phil may be short sighting PA's electorate between now and 2010. He is quick to remind us that the environment may change for the general, but it could also change for the primary too. I still think Toomey wins this thing, but it may not be as big a blowout as it appears to be heading for right now. If the Specter team can switch a good chunk of voters back over, he could have a fighting chance if the conservative vote is split, even, say 10% to Luksik.


Again, I'm not an expert on PA politics, and I am still reading a lot about Specter and this impending primary, but I think it's safe to say Specter will probably not leave the GOP. I haven't read anything pointing in that direction other than pundits saying he would have a much easier time winning reelection. I think Specter has a big enough ego that he could not back down from Toomey and would go on to face him in the primary even if it looks like he'll get his clock cleaned. The forces behind Toomey may be too much, as it appears as if the establishment may be lining up behind him, but we shall see. Things can change, and probably will before 2010. I'm still struggling myself to see who I want to win this thing. I'm not happy with Specter anymore, but I also don't think Toomey can win in the general in a left leaning state like PA, unless, of course, the GOP has a strong headwind in 2010. It's a choice of whether I want someone who will vote with the GOP 60-70% of the time or 20% of the time in a Democrat.

I don't think there will be much "switching back" of former GOPers.  Those voters have finally come home.  Mind you, those voters have views very similar to yours, but many feel the GOP has abandoned them and it is likely Toomey will win the primary. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Say Phil, great signature!  Question, which Senator would bother you the least: Schwartz, Torsella, Shapiro, or Matthews?

Off topic- Temple v. Xavier was a great game last night.  Duquesne also beat Dayton which is was stunned at.  I wouldn't take Duquesne too lightly.  Least St. Joe's is out!

[TeePee4Prez]

To quote Trunk Man (from our local political paper)...

"Word on the street is he [Toomey] has already secured the commitment of many influencial Elephant Ward Leaders, potential candidates and assorted Philly movers and shakers. This is not good news for Senator Arlen Specter."


If he has several ward leaders (and influencial ones at that) in Philly, Specter is done here. I haven't heard of many others backing him and I'm very curious who they are. I'll find out soon enough, I guess. The "movers and shakers" list would be interesting to see as well.

Can't you fit the registered Republicans in the city of Philly itself into a something only slightly larger than a phone booth?  It would seem to me the burb GOP influentials would be more salient here.

Not really.  Northeast Philly still has 3 GOP State Reps, but one of them is a sure flip when he retires (Taylor) and the other 2 will be hotly contested, but the GOP would be in the running if they were to leave (Perzel, O'Brien).  Also, the 26th Ward in South Philly was McCain's only Ward win.  One thing that has surprised me is unlike the moderate to liberal suburban Republicans that switched to the Democrats over the past 20 years is that you don't have many conservative Democrats in NE/South Philly switching to the Republican party.  I know a fair, but not huge number of people are Dems due to their union affiliation, city job, etc. but have pretty conservative politics otherwise.  On the other hand NE/South Philly only seem conservative compared to what's around it, we ain't Alabama by any stretch.   

[TeePee4Prez]

On the other hand NE/South Philly only seem conservative compared to what's around it, we ain't Alabama by any stretch.   

Right, we're not Alabama but the Republicans in this city tend to be conservative, not moderate or liberal. Those types followed the Bush and Santorum's orders in 2004. Those types were more likely to listen to their ward leader/the city GOP in 2004. The Toomey campaign didn't really target Philly but naturally did well (in areas around me in the far NE). This is why, as I said in another thread, Philly is a possible Specter county in the primary. It is in no way a guarantee. It's going to be close.

I agree with you to a point, but Philadelphia Republicans tend to be more conservative socially, not so much economically which Toomey is.  You are right Toomey will probably win those voters this time around however.  I also think he'd win a primary.

[TeePee4Prez]

http://blogs.mcall.com/penn_ave/2009/03/specter-im-running-as-republican.html


Sen. Arlen Specter released this statement today following a Hill report this morning where the GOP lawmaker raised the possibility of running as an independent next year.

"To eliminate any doubt, I am a Republican and I am running for re-election in 2010 as a Republican on the Republican ticket," Specter said in a statement.


but...

He added: "I’m not really giving it any thought at all. It is a possibility in the sense that almost anything is a possibility. But I’m not planning to run as an independent."

Yeah. I don't think I could stand living with a group who'd rather have a Democrat over someone like Specter. Arlen's vote on the stimulus made me angry, but it's not like the Democrat would've voted against it if he/she was in office.

...

What don't you get about there being more to this?

http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/employee-free-choice-act/rendell-will-throw-his-full-weight-behind-democrat-against-specter/

Well, that's cool, provided that he isn't lying.

Of course. He has to say that, Lief. Privately, he's a very good friend of Arlen's and a vote against Card Check won't change that.

By the way, it looks like Specter will vote against it since he keeps saying he's running as a Republican and plans on being the decisive vote on Card Check. Absolutely hilarious.

Specter votes nay on Card Check, he can kiss his union support goodbye.  You know if he wins the GOP nomination, there will be a Constitution candidate from the right effectively giving almost any Democrat an easy win.  There is no Bush or Santorum to hold GOP votes from going to a CP candidate.  And in PA (see Peg Luksik and she may very well be the nominee), that could be as much as 15 points.  Specter's best political move at this point is to change back to a Democrat.

[TeePee4Prez]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

...

What don't you get about there being more to this?

I get it. I get that conservatives in Pennsylvania feel that Specter has wronged them for over 30 years. I get that they are angry with him and would love to see him go down in a humiliating defeat. I get that they feel like he hasn't been a voice for them. If I'm missing something else, let me know..

From an outsiders perspective, I still don't understand it, but I'm not a Pennsylvania conservative. If I was in PA, I'd probably be a Specter supporter because he lines up more with my views than Toomey, but as I said before, I wouldn't care this time if Specter lost. I think PA needs someone new, but it will be difficult, but not impossible, to get Toomey elected in a state like PA.

Many don't see much of a difference and are tired of helping this guy. I wouldn't vote for someone like Schwartz, Sestak, Murphy, Shapiro, etc. but I'd definitley vote for Wagner and maybe even Torsella. Many agree with me.

Specter votes nay on Card Check, he can kiss his union support goodbye.  You know if he wins the GOP nomination, there will be a Constitution candidate from the right effectively giving almost any Democrat an easy win.  There is no Bush or Santorum to hold GOP votes from going to a CP candidate.  And in PA (see Peg Luksik and she may very well be the nominee), that could be as much as 15 points.  Specter's best political move at this point is to change back to a Democrat.

Luksik can't do that unless she drops out of the GOP primary. PA law says that a candidate cannot run for the same office in the General if he or she loses a primary for that office earlier in the year.
[/quote]

You'd vote for Torsella over Specter?  You do know he's pro-choice.

Could Luksik win a GOP primary?  Or would she do better as a CP nominee and still get a teen-ish percentage of the vote?

[TeePee4Prez]

You'd vote for Torsella over Specter?  You do know he's pro-choice.

...

You do know that's not my only area of disagreement with Specter, right?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If she's Specter's only challenger, yes, she could. That won't be the case though.

I know that.  I did think it was a major issue however.  IIRC, Torsella was fairly pro-labor as well.  If it's Torsella vs. Specter.. DRUM ROLL PLEASE.... me and you will be in agreement on a major election for what's it now the 3rd time?  I also think this would be the 1st non-mayoral election we agree on as well.

[TeePee4Prez]

Ok, ok, so this is my little ancedote for today.    Note - I am in no way saying that this is widespread.

I was at my Aunt and Uncle's house (they live just outside of Allentown in Toomey's old district) for a family function today and Specter was mentioned. My Maternal Grandfather, who is a year Specter's senior so he's obviously very familiar with Specter's career, is a registered Democrat (but total DINO - social conservative, devout Catholic, Wall Street Journal reader) and has been for his entire life. He and my Grandmother remain Dems for "cosmetic purposes" since they live in South Philly.

Anyway, he approached me about Specter. He was so happy talking about how he was in trouble. Then he told me something I thought I'd never hear - he wants to switch to vote against him. I was so happy and told him that I'd get him everything he needs in a year and then I'd switch him back. He stopped me and said he wanted to remain a Republican and my Grandmother can remain a Dem, saying that that's how the Dems play the game here (switching Republicans for their primaries) so he's basically giving them a dose of their own medicine.

Now, like I said, this won't be widespread but I bet Toomey's campaign gets a decent amount of switch overs by conservative Dems out west.

Then my Aunt's Father in law chimes in about Specter. My Uncle's family is Pennsylvania Dutch and uber conservative so it wasn't a shock when he said he wants Specter out. However, he insisted that it would still be tough since Specter is still working hard for support. He cited how Specter is known for his town halls in every county specifically mentioning how he's visible in the county where they vacation (Potter county in central PA. One of the most conservative in the state that went for Arlen big time in 2004 because of Bush and Santorum's orders). I acknowledged that but it's clearly not enough. The people love those town halls and love not being forgotten but they're pissed at the guy and those town hall meetings are the least he could ever do for them.

He was excited about Toomey, too. They've been in the Lehigh Valley for decades so they remember him as the Congressman. I wasn't that excited about much that he said because I know how he feels about this stuff but it was great to hear him and my Grandpop so fired up.

Those types of Dems would never Arlen Specter Republicans, or anywhere close to begin with.  I think I mentioned the "cosmetic Dems" or something to the tune of Democrats being so because of their union affiliation or "to get things done with a politician faster" in a previous post. 

I think the past 8 years in the state of Pennsylvania almost realized the full realignment of conservative Dems to the GOP and liberal Republicans to the Dems.  We are starting to resemble California more politically not so much in terms of overall politics, but the polarizing alignment- Central Valley and OC as GOP and the Bay Area/LA as Democratic.  The Bay Area from what I've read has it's Montco/Bucks like areas that used to be heavily Republican now Democratic.  You will not see too many more Bob Casey Democrats or Barb Hafer Republicans (oh wait, she switched!) in the state anymore.