An autopsy of liberal Republicans

[TeePee4Prez]

So now we can't win the NE without liberal Republicans? Even moderates aren't good enough? Wow.

House delegation of New England:
22 Democrats
0 Republicans

Throw in New York and you get:
48 Democrats
3 Republicans

Don't ever get cocky.  I could easily see PA 3, 4, 10, 12, and 17 switching to the GOP as they stand now given a future open seat and friendlier GOP environment.  I would also be afraid to sacrifice Pat Murphy to run for the Senate because it's now the most Republican area of the PA suburbs and the GOP has a deep, willing bench to replace him.  PA 11 if the old dope Kanjo runs against possibly Lou Barletta would be interesting as well, but would likely stay Dem.   True, PA 6 has been lucky for Gerlach, but other than that, PA 15 would be our only other expansion option.  Plus we had a close one in NY-20.  It is vitally important we don't just coronate Tom Corbett for this very reason.

PA Summary:

Dems can expand: 6, 15.  16 Maaybe with future exurban expansion and a good redistricting.

GOP can expand: 3, 4, 8, 10, 11, 12, 17.  Don't turn back on 7 and 13 either.

[TeePee4Prez]

Here's 1992 for the record:



Darkest color is 80-100% of the seats, then 60-80%, below that is a majority with over 50%, and the stripes are a tie.

So yeah, the point is obvious and clearly made. And Phil, the only reason I mentioned the NY seat was it was one of the states I was referring to. How does a seat in New York relate to the South in any way?

So now we can't win the NE without liberal Republicans? Even moderates aren't good enough? Wow.

House delegation of New England:
22 Democrats
0 Republicans

Throw in New York and you get:
48 Democrats
3 Republicans

Don't ever get cocky.  I could easily see PA 3, 4, 10, 12, and 17 switching to the GOP as they stand now given a future open seat and friendlier GOP environment.  I would also be afraid to sacrifice Pat Murphy to run for the Senate because it's now the most Republican area of the PA suburbs and the GOP has a deep, willing bench to replace him.  PA 11 if the old dope Kanjo runs against possibly Lou Barletta would be interesting as well, but would likely stay Dem.   True, PA 6 has been lucky for Gerlach, but other than that, PA 15 would be our only other expansion option.  Plus we had a close one in NY-20.  It is vitally important we don't just coronate Tom Corbett for this very reason.

PA Summary:

Dems can expand: 6, 15.  16 Maaybe with future exurban expansion and a good redistricting.

GOP can expand: 3, 4, 8, 10, 11, 12, 17.  Don't turn back on 7 and 13 either.

...Where was Pennsylvania mentioned in that post?

You said the "Northeast" so I went with PA.  I could even make an argument for some borderline NY districts as well  NY-13 was luck for us and some of the upstate districts might not be easy holds in the future.  All, I'm saying is be a little more modest.  The GOP got cocky after 2004 claiming a "mandate" and look where it got them and fast.

[TeePee4Prez]

  The GOP got cocky after 2004 claiming a "mandate" and look where it got them and fast.

Thank you.

Do you think the 2004 election for Republicans was equivalent to the 2006/2008 election for the Democrats?

I'll tilt my hand and say no, and why I think not. For one, the Republicans had a majority for 10 years, and their small gains in Congress in 2004 were almost entirely a delayed outcome of the ongoing consolidation of southern conservatives--the Texas redistricting in the House, the gain of seats in NC and SC and retention of FL in part with very strong Republican turnout in the northern part of the state. Secondly, in 2004 the Republicans won by voting very strongly against a very strong, but slightly smaller, Democratic counterweight while splitting independents. In 2006, Republicans turned out but independents deserted them; in 2008, Republican turnout was down and the Republican vote collapsed.

I'll admit, we have a huge advantage right now, but it's not exactly difficult for the GOP to overcome. PA love thread I know, but this would probably be a worst case 35/65 Obama approval in 2010 for just PA alone:

PA 3-  English def. Dahlkemper

PA 4- Hart def. Altmire

PA 7- Joe Sestak throws hat in the rink for Senate.  Pat Meehan concedes to Tom Corbett for Governor and runs for seat.  Meehan def. Lentz

PA 8-  Murphy throws his hat into the fire for the US Senate.  Fitzpatrick def. an inexperienced Paul Lang

PA 10-  Chris Hackett def. Chris Carney

PA 11- Lou Barletta def. Paul Kanjorski if he doesn't decide to retire (which he should)

PA 12-  Diana Irey def. Jack Murtha

PA 13 (with twist)-  A lot of white cops primarily based out of NE Philly get shot by black suspects.  Either Bruce Castor or Dennis O'Brien play up to right wing populist sentiment and Allyson Schwartz runs for Senate.  In all likelihood:  O'Brien def. Josh Shapiro

PA 17-  Despite Holden's conservative stances, Jeff Piccola decides to run and wins most of suburban Harrisburg.  Piccola narrowly def. Holden

9 seats could flip.  Anyone watch the Weather Channel?  It could happen tomorrow.  But it's not likely unless you have bad Obama approvals.  16-3 GOP majority.

In reverse.  65/35 Obama approval:

PA 6-  Rep. Gerlach lose GOP Gubernatorial primary.  Now it's St. Sen. Andy Dinniman vs. St. Rep. Curt Schroder.  Dinniman def. Schroder

PA 15-  Don Cunningham bows out of Democratic Gubernatorial Primary.  Runs against a Charlie Dent who said "NO" on a few too many things.  Cunningham def. Dent.

PA 16-  Influx of exubanites from Philadelphia and Baltimore/DC liberalizes the population even moreso from 2008.  Joe Pitts ultra- conservative voting record gets called out.  Remember, the district only voted 51-48 for McCain.  A fresh faced moderate Dem who's an Iraq war vet decdies to run.  Unknown war vet narrowly def. Joe Pitts

16-3 Dem majority in PA.  Anything could happen.

[TeePee4Prez]

PA 13 (with twist)-  A lot of white cops primarily based out of NE Philly get shot by black suspects.  Either Bruce Castor or Dennis O'Brien play up to right wing populist sentiment and Allyson Schwartz runs for Senate.  In all likelihood:  O'Brien def. Josh Shapiro

Haha, Denny wouldn't run. He and Josh are great friends.

The rest of your analysis is interesting and not too far-fetched (the Dems wouldn't win the 16th against Pitts though).

Forgot about that.  Hmm, think Perzel would do it now that a lot of his power's gone?

[TeePee4Prez]

Yeah, remember after Watergate? The GOP was still beloved then. I guess we ought to start worrying about extinction.

You shouldn't worry about extinction - ain't happening. But I would worry about extinction in New England.

Ehh.  The GOP would never be extinct.  If it were close to happening, I'd probably change my registration because the country moved drastically more liberal than I.  Not happening.  Guess where I COULD see a GOP resurgance in New England?  Eastern MA.  You may think I'm crazy, but MA-6 and 10 have only have a slight Dem advantage and if the GOP goes more populist, watch that area.  I might even add upstate ME into the mix as well.  I still think the past 2 years were got extremely lucky in NYS in places such as NY 13 and 29.  True we have room to expand in PA (6, 15) and possibly NJ (2, 4, 7), but the GOP can expand in a variety of areas not only in western PA, but the South as well.   

[TeePee4Prez]

Quale was Vice-President of the United States. Usually a steping stone to the presidency. If a sitting Vice-President isn't considered a major party leader then I don't know who is.

He was never looked to as a leader in the party or a major contender for the Presidency. Stop spinning.

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...

Uh...I never said it was simple. I said it was possible. You make it seem like some established power is needed.

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And that didn't last that long. The Dems paid for Vietnam and Civil Rights...while controlling Congress. The GOP paid for the Great Depression...while gaining back Congress not too long after FDR's ascension to power.

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One exception and I'd still say that the younger people preferred the Dems.

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I don't like our messaging. That's a main reason why we're doing so poorly, in my opinion. Our ideology is fine.

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How did I contradict myself? My whole point is that even after much damage being done, a party can return to power! Since we're not four years after Bush, how the hell are you going to tell me that you can prove Bush did more damage? Are you that blind?

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Republicans ran away from Bush in 2006 and 2008. Again, you focus on one issue (and you're being incredibly vague since I don't think most Republican leaders are exactly rallying around the torture issue) and applying it to everything.

Phil, I don't think the issue as to why the GOP lost the past 2 years has anything to do with how the message was spread wrong or entirely the Iraq War.  Granted, I know the War helped us in some areas.  The Democrats have a big tent and yes I even let a few people have it, but I also know in parts of the country we need to elect more conservative people than I to win.  If it's a place we can get away with someone ideologically closer to me then.. well.. see my signature.  Take Gene Taylor-  I understand in his part of MS, hey it's the best we're gonna get, but here I'd say hey DINO, step aside.  And it goes beyond GW Bush.  Other than your Snowe, Collins, Voinovich, McCain, Crists, etc. your party looks off the deep end with the Limbaughs and Bachmanns wanting the stage.  .