Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015 (Official Campaign Thread)

[adma]

What other places are there to go that have detailed riding-by-riding projections? As long as Grenier has a monopoly on that, he'll be able to attract attention.

Look--you have to regard Grenier as the psephological equivalent of the talking GPS girl.  Giving directions from the "data available", but no substitute for the ability to navigate oneself and get one's feel for the lay of the land.

[adma]

I can only imagine the oddness of a scenario in which he loses his own seat, but the Liberals make gains elsewhere.

Ask Christy Clark.

[adma]

If we're to rely on the current Nanos tracking poll as a foretelling of anything--Lib 30.8 (-0.2), Con 30.4 (+1.3), NDP 28.9 (2.4)--then Mulcair's the big loser of the debate.  But I won't come to such conclusions now.

[adma]

Though if we're still deadlocked, one dark horse factor which might make a difference is the *French* debate--particularly for whatever credibility it might anoint upon the hitherto given-up-for-dead Justin; maybe not enough to win QC, but enough for a face-saving 1997/2000-Chretien seat total which'd drag Liberal numbers up nationwide.

More critical to Justin than to Mulcair, who's basically maxed out in QC with thus-far limited evidence of buoyance-in-tandem elsewhere.  (In a way, it's like the Duceppe-era Bloc all over again, which at its full power still fell short of some of the bolder predictions out there: that they'd defeat Paul Martin in LaSalle-Emard, et al)

[adma]

Jim Pankiw is leading a fringe party called Canada Party.

IIRC they are one of the many fringe parties that emerged out of the death of Social Credit.

I wouldn't mind the Pankiw-led Canada Party going nationwide, as a repository for Ford Nation trolls and the like...

[adma]

Personally, I'm even shaky about the NDP holding on to 100 or so seats--it all depends on how Quebec goes, but I wouldn't be surprised if the NDP's not even top party there come e-day.  (Not saying that *will* be the case; but, forewarned just in case.)

[adma]

At this point, I wonder if it's worth speculating on who'd be Mulcair's successor.  (FWIW, I've long thought of Charlie Angus in future-leadership terms.)

[adma]

Current Nanos: 35.6% Lib (+ .3%); 31.0% Con (NC), 22.8% NDP (-1.5%!).  (In Quebec, 30.1 NDP, 28.1 Lib, 20.4 Con, 17.1 Bloc.)

Unless there's a quick fix over the next couple of weeks, looks like the NDP's gone into an Iggy tailspin of sorts.

[adma]

Well, Quebec's always been the most "continental" of Canadian provinces, so in terms of 2015, it almost comes naturally for their inner Lepeniste to start showing...

[adma]

Yeah, good news for the NDP about today's poll is that they're once again on the upswing, nationwide.

The *bad* news is, they remain static in Quebec and the Cons are still going up there.

[adma]

Latest polls
EKOS, October 8, Cons 33.7%, NDP 20.4% Lib 33.8% B.Q 3.5% Green 7.2%
Angus Reid, October 9, Cons 33% NDP 25% Lib 31% B.Q  6% Green 3%
Nanos, October 9, Cons 28.6%, NDP 24.9%, Lib 34.8% B.Q 5.5% Green 5.4%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015

Probably(?) a blip, but it's interesting that the Cons dipped 2.4% in a day with Nanos--which brings them closer to the (static) NDP than the Libs...

[adma]

Re Mulcair in his own seat: remember, too, that he had a much higher-profile Liberal opponent in 2011 (ex-MP Martin Cauchon).  Consider that as a projection-model stats-skewer.

And re "charismatic" successors to Mulcair: language barrier or not, that's why I've repeatedly offered Charlie Angus as a prospect.

[adma]

What if the Conservatives we're able to win the most seats, but the Liberals won a plurality of the popular vote and formed a coalition with the NDP(post-election). Who do you think would be the next Prime Minister?

This pic is an example of what I'm referring to:
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-eaPZ7TplOGo/VhuIDB7oxUI/AAAAAAAAHSU/7pLuLwvvVQs/w560-h280-c/12%2Boctobre%2B2015.png

Has anything like this ever happened before in another Canadian general election?

Do you mean *Canadian* general election, or general election in *Canada*?  Because the obvious case that comes to mind is Ontario, 1985...

[adma]

Also, I just realized there is a place in Saskatchewan called Moose Mountain. Unless there's some hilly part of Saskatchewan I don't know about, that has got to be one of the worst misnomers in the country.

Moose Mountain:


Not the Rockies, but not bad by eastern standards.

The flat-as-a-pancake myth about Sask is full of hooey,  Maybe it's because the first taste of the Prairies travellers from the East get is of the Red River floodplain in Manitoba, and nothing else spectacular comes into view until the Rockies...

[adma]

Its actually his baby brother Doug Ford, who wants the job. He is slightly thinner and has no videos of crack smoking, but has  the same politics as big brother Rob.

Other way around.  DoFo's the big brother, RoFo's the baby.  (Chronological, not personality-wise--then again...)

[adma]

Anyway Outremont is the sort of place where the Liberals could see an outsized gain compared to their gain in the province as a whole. That said, I still think Mulcair holds on fine.

One thing countering that possibility though: Mulcair had a high profile 2011 opponent (ex-MP Martin Cauchon, bidding for his old seat back).

[adma]

Final seat projections from CBC: 146/118/66/7/1

Could we be underestimating Tory support? I mean I think people would be less likely to admit they are voting Conservative and the "shy Tory" factor could be in play here. I still believe there is too much momentum for the Liberals to think anyone other than them will win this thing.

At this point, I'd imagine we're more likely overestimating NDP support, given the signals out there of an Iggy-level sub-20% result, potentially...