Canadian federal election - October 19, 2015: Official Results & Analysis Thread

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One thing I'm finding interesting (and what does it foretell for Quebec) is that Bernard Valcourt is a poor *third* in Madawaska-Restigouche: 15% with 72 out of 173 polls called (NDP's 26%)

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Re Kelowna, there was a strategic deal-making with the Greens, who withdrew their candidate.  (Also, there's a bit of a forgotten/suppressed subliminal Lib streak, going back to Judy Tyabji days in the 90s.)

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Well, the States also have that weird "provisional ballot" thing going.  Canada has none of that...

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Wondering if there's some booby prize for the worst result for an incumbent MP: ex-NDP J-F Larose for FD in La Pointe-de-l'Île (134 votes, 0.24%).  Or the worst result for an incumbent MP in his/her own incumbent riding: ex-NDP MP Manon Perreault for (again) FD in Montcalm (606 votes, 1.16%)

And Perreault did worse than maybe the best-named candidate of the whole election: the Greens' Yumi Yow Mei Ang (955 votes, 1.83%)

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For the record, I tried fleshing out how things might have played out had the early-mid-campaign 3-way deadlock hypothesis held, by taking 10 points out of every Liberal share and adding it to the NDP share (yeah, crude, I know)--the (probably/possibly incorrect) number I got was 118 Con, 112 Lib, 103 NDP, 4 Bloc, 1 Green.  Just saying.

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Given the "Siri" metaphor I've offered re election projection/strategic-voting sites, here's my motorist's spin on psephologically-minded campaign approaches...

With the NDP, it's all about advancing the cause of better navigational skills.

The Liberals: better navigational technology.

The Conservatives: better roads.

The Greens: better bikeways.

Voting reform advocates: better cars.

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Finally, although the Liberals won every riding in the Atlantic, I think there's no question that a lot of people also voted personally for Bill Matthews.  He did previously get reelected as an independent after all.

Your forgetting Bill Casey in  Cumberland—Colchester who has won as a PC, Conservative, Independent and Liberal.

I believe he meant "Casey" when he wrote "Andrews".  (Bill Andrews was a different Con-to-Lib jumper, in Newfoundland c15 years ago.)

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Would have to be some pretty significant irregularities to turn over that margin, but then Quebec Liberals have a history of whinging.

Would parties/candidates have early access to poll-by-poll totals?  Because I can think of a lot of cases where final numbers for certain polls were *really* blatantly off due to bad tabulation gone unchecked--otherwise, they'd be fishing in the dark, I suppose...

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Would have to be some pretty significant irregularities to turn over that margin, but then Quebec Liberals have a history of whinging.

Would parties/candidates have early access to poll-by-poll totals?  Because I can think of a lot of cases where final numbers for certain polls were *really* blatantly off due to bad tabulation gone unchecked--otherwise, they'd be fishing in the dark, I suppose...

It's normal practice for each major party candidate to have a scrutineer at each polling station, so the local campaign receives reports from their scrutineers about how each poll voted as the votes are counted.

But given said irregularities, is there an opportunity *after* election night--esp. given how even major party candidates can be affected (i.e. Liberal and Marxist-Leninist votes accidentally switched at a polling station and it carries through into the "official" final totals, that sort of thing)

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The Liberal Party does not eclipse 300 seats, or even come that close to it; Conservative strength in rural Alberta/Saskatchewan/Manitoba is too strong.

However, in a 55% scenario, I think you're paying short shrift to latent Liberal strength in *urban* AlSaskMan.  Like, to take one example, you're claiming the Cons would claim Elmwood-Transcona from the Dippers; yet you seem to be overlooking the fact that the Liberal candidate was less than five points behind either.  (And less than 10 points separated the three parties in Regina-Lewvan as well.)

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The results are out!


http://www.elections.ca/res/rep/off/ovr2015app/home.html

I haven't the time to go through everything, but judging from my first lick at the spoon the NDP in Toronto did much better in advance/special polls (winning at least 3 seats!) than on e-day...

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Oddly, Parkdale used to be a Liberal stronghold (went Liberal in the 1990 provincial election).

Provincially, it was more a Tony Ruprecht stronghold than a Liberal stronghold.  And federally (where the Stan Haidasz/Jesse Flis Polish Liberal machine ruled), the NDP was more of a third-leg force until the PCs collapsed in 1993; thereafter they rose as the second-force challenger through the Alexa years, a position consolidated w/Peggy Nash...

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Do politicians canvass jail cells?

Well, anyplace one feels they belong, I guess ;-)