UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[adma]

I don't see LD in Witney so much as "overperformance" than as a kind of "return to normal".

Neat to see Corbyn Anti in fifth place in B&S.

[adma]

Extremely boring result - poor results for the big two, none of the billion smaller and minor parties gaining serious traction despite that, obvious impact of the bad weather on turnout, obvious impact of the popular deceased incumbent not being on the ballot paper.

Can't say it's *boring* for all those minor parties (and both Tories and UKIP benefited from "familiar" standard-bearers)

Labour 9,308 39.6 -12.7
Conservative 7,357 31.3 -8.0
UKIP   2,023 8.6 +6.1
Plaid Cymru 1,185 5.0 +2.5
Liberal Democrat 1,088 4.6 +2.4
Green 924 3.9 +2.8
Renew 879 3.7
Abolish the Welsh Assembly 205 0.9
SDP 202 0.9
Democrats and Veterans 185 0.8
For Britain   159 0.7

[adma]

Can't say it's *boring* for all those minor parties (and both Tories and UKIP benefited from "familiar" standard-bearers)

Boring in that the result was exactly as expected, I mean. It could easily be a pointer to the immediate future: big falls in vote share for the big two, but with the lost votes scattering wildly rather than consolidating.

Sounds a bit like what happened in (and saved) a lot of Northern Labour strongholds by the time Brown and Miliband rolled along...

[adma]

The Tories won the election with that promise and held it... Labour did pretty poorly in 2015, if you recall.

But it wasn't a "collapse in the heartlands" kind of "pretty poorly" (except in Scotland, of course)

[adma]

Somehow, my feeling is that this will be "peak Brexit Party", unless there's another opening very soon in a yet more "obvious" seat.

[adma]

I'm also wondering how much the sluggish LD performance relative to the Tories relates to the more generic, universal rightward swing of rural areas--that is, onetime "Celtic fringe" strongholds such as this might henceforth be less amenable to a LD swing than soft-Lab/Tory-wet locales more actively seeking a "centre voice"...