Revised Predictions...?

[Inmate Trump]

I was just watching CNN Headline News.  On the crawl at the bottom of the screen I saw that John Kerry, according to the AP, has official gotten enough delegates to be the nominee.  Beyond that, this story hasn't gotten any press coverage whatsoever that I've seen.  Now that Kerry won't be getting any more free, positive press coverage, he'll start fading in the polls.

Everybody's been saying that this is going to be a close race.  I still don't see it that way.  I think Bush could win by 8-10 points.

Wait a minute.... you were watching CNN?

[Inmate Trump]

Here are my predictions for some of the close states:

Minnesota will be a dead heat again, but I'm predicting 2004 to be the last presidential election for the next few year to go Democrat.  Kerry wins, barely.  Kerry also wins Oregon, again barely, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin.

Bush wins Iowa, New Mexico, Florida, and Ohio.  I also think Bush will barely win Pennsylvania, but it'll be close.  I think Bush would lose Pa if Kerry (or someone else like him--Dean) was not the Dem nominee.

Everything depends on how quickly Bush can label Kerry as just another Massachusetts liberal.  Once he does that, and the public catches on to it, Kerry's numbers will drop.