Who won the main Fox debate?

[Averroës Nix]

Rubio has essentially won an on-air endorsement from Fox News, so at least he's got that going for him.

I expect that we'll interpret Cruz's poor performance tonight as a turning point in these primaries, in hindsight.

[Averroës Nix]

I'll also point out that I think that those who are bullish on Trump are now making the same mistake that Trump-skeptics have been making for months now. That is, they are treating the national media's reaction as indicative of the state of the race.

In reality, we probably won't know much about how Republican caucus-goers are reacting to this until we see the caucus results. But we shouldn't assume that national media attention and punditry are leading indicators for this.

[Averroës Nix]

Remember that "[X] is a victory for Trump" is by now the safest conclusion to draw under almost any conceivable circumstances. (If we rule out admitting ignorance, at least.)

Anyone who predicts that an event will harm Trump's standing risks ridicule if that prediction is not correct, especially if they have speculated on his likely demise once or more before, which is something that most observers have done.

In contrast, Trump's invulnerability is now received wisdom and no one risks individual blame or loss by repeating it, even if that turns out to be spectacularly wrong.