Help needed for 2012 National Congressional Map

[Miles]

Miles, did you put Roskam as lean GOP?

Yes. He's running in a 51% Obama district down from 56%. Probably Strong R.

[Miles]

UT-02? - Strong Dem > to Lean Dem. It is a heavily GOP seat, in a presidential year, and it is newly redrawn. Sure, Matheson is all that and has been through this before, but I am not ready to declare it a certainty.

I should have put Matheson's district as Lean D too, instead of Safe D.

[Miles]

I think Matheson should win 53-54 percent of the vote in that district.

It's 56% McCain; a few points to the left of what he has now.

[Miles]

Can someone update the map for Obama/McCain results?

On it.

[Miles]

Fuzzy, you still have a broken line between PA-03 and PA-05.

I've fixed it. lol

[Miles]

Miles, did you put Bilbray as Strong GOP?

Yes. I think I had most of the GOP incumbents in CA safe except for Miller and Lungren (who's in a tossup against Bera).

[Miles]

This is what I have so far for Presidential results.

A quick note about the colors. I added a >55% color interval to distinguish the marginal districts; this changed the color scheme up a bit. I'm using the >30% color for >40% districts, the >40% color for >50% districts and the >50% color for >55% districts. Other than that, the darker colors are the same.



I heard that Giffords' district was now an Obama district, but I found the official map in DRA and it had McCain ahead. Can anyone clarify that?

[Miles]

The question is, are we rating the map (then Johnson is lean D, Matheson is lean R, Bilbray is tossup or even lean D) or making a prediction for 2012 (then Johnson is lean R or at worst tossup, Matheson is lean D, Bilbray is lean R bordering on safe)?

Both.

The Congressional ratings map that I posted earlier is my prediction.

The map I most recently posted simply shows the Presidential results.

[Miles]

Obama- 168
McCain- 154

Once all the districts are drawn, I think Obama should have in the neighborhood of 225-230.

[Miles]

Here's where I got some of the states.

Yes, Petri is still Obama. They bumped Wolfe up to 50/50 McCain.

Yes, you're right. Benishek is still has an Obama district.

I'm still not entirely sure about AZ-02 and KS-03.

[Miles]

The question is, are we rating the map (then Johnson is lean D, Matheson is lean R, Bilbray is tossup or even lean D) or making a prediction for 2012 (then Johnson is lean R or at worst tossup, Matheson is lean D, Bilbray is lean R bordering on safe)?

Both.

The Congressional ratings map that I posted earlier is my prediction.

The map I most recently posted simply shows the Presidential results.

Presidential result and generic congressional strength are not identical, though.

Duh....

Thats why I posted 2 types of maps.

[Miles]

If some brave soul wants to do Florida, we could use this map, at least for now.

[Miles]

Sigh...moving 200-300 people shouldn't be that hard...

[Miles]

Man this is so ugly... Something must be done for gerrymandering, and soon.

Amen.

[Miles]

Good. The thing that frustrates me about FL is that there are a lot of marginal districts but most of them are either held by entrenched GOP incumbents (e.g, Bill Young, Ros-Lethenin) or more strongly Republican on the state level.

I think I'd put Riviera as a tossup at least...he's an awful incumbent in a 50% Obama district.

[Miles]

I drew the special master's map of New York. It may change, but I'm at least using it for my timeline. Obviously, there was only so much I could to accurately draw the NYC districts.

[Miles]

Good job.

I may alter the color scheme a bit. The one I'm using for my precinct-level maps is a 5% scale too, so I may switch over to that one for this map.

...it just kinda bugs me to have pink on the map for the D>40% districts.

[Miles]

'Looks very good!

[Miles]

DKE has TX numbers posted!

[Miles]

Do we have national numbers yet for the likely (or PVI) seat distributions?

I estimated the national totals a while ago and had Obama winning about 225-230 CDs, down from 242 under the old lines.

[Miles]

Do we have national numbers yet for the likely (or PVI) seat distributions?

I estimated the national totals a while ago and had Obama winning about 225-230 CDs, down from 242 under the old lines.

Interesting. I'm also kind of surprised by what looks like a majority of geographically large districts in New York, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada being red. No other states (maybe Illinois) seem to have that given the current rural and suburban voting distributions. Due to Republican control of redistricting?

Actually, my estimate was a bit low. I ran the tally again and, assuming Obama won both NH districts, he's won 234 districts overall on the new map.

[Miles]

I clicked on DK's link to the Texas numbers, and it gave me North Carolina instead.    Same thing for their Washington link. 

Is this for the new Pres-by-CD numbers?

[Miles]

I hope this helps more people than it confuses. I colored the CDs based on their numbers; I thought it would be a good reference. The color scheme is from DRA with a few modifications. Let me know if there are any errors. I'll add NH when its officially done w/ redistricting.

[Miles]

Why is KS colored in? They don't have a congressional map yet.

That was just the map we went with for the time being.

[Miles]

I think Miles drew a copy of it as well.....

Yeah, I drew NH. I'll go dig it up...

We'll also have to change KS as some point as well.