Except you forgot to mention that the Tarrance group is a Republican firm, of course.
Still, this seems to be an interesting race, at the very least. Somebody (maybe it was Nate Silver or the folks at DKE, I can't recall) looked at internals and found they average 6% more favorable to the candidate they're done for, and I've generally found subtracting 6% from the candidate the internal is being done for gets you reasonable results. In this case a 41-41 tie...
Brian Sandoval and George W. Bush, to name a couple, were successful in winning this district.
Harry Reid also carried it and I'm guessing Kate Marshall, Ross Miller and Catherine Cortez Masto would have as well, to name a few others.
