LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

Hagan has hired Preston Elliott as her campaign manager.

This is good news for Democrats as last year, Elliott helped with Tester's top-tier campaign. In 2010, he also helped to oversee Reid's win.

[Miles]

Oh look, isn't this nifty...

An ad featuring Tillis is running in the Charlotte and Triad media markets.

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[Miles]

Hmmm...Pittenger may not end up being the knee-jerk partisan that I expected.

[Miles]

[Miles]

So it looks like Dardenne vs. Vitter in the primary? With this, what do Mitch's chances look like?

He's pretty popular.

He's about to be reelected in a landslide.

[Miles]

A birthday shout-out to Congressman Howard Coble; the Dean of the NC delegation turned 81 today. I really don't like too many in the NCGOP, but Coble has served his state well.

[Miles]

Well, how 'bout them apples, Fleming is nippin' at Cassidy's heels.

Fleming is out with some interesting numbers, from Public Opinion Strategies; these are perhaps aimed at nudging Cassidy out of the race.

The full primary poll:

Landrieu (D)- 47%
Fleming (R)- 15%
Cassidy (R)- 14%
Roemer (R)- 6%

The Roemer is Chas Roemer, the son of the former Governor. I probably would have substituted Landry for Roemer in that poll.

After "opposition research" points are read against all the candidate, the race changes to:

Landrieu- 38%
Fleming- 32%
Cassidy- 30%

Obviously, Fleming would advance to the runoff in both scenarios. 

There seems to be a sentiment among Republicans that a runoff would be bad news for them.

[Miles]

What's Fleming like? I haven't heard much about him. As for the runoff, better with a single Pub. Else Landrieu will throw all the mud back at the Pub nominee or throw a monkey wrench  that requires more time to counter, like in '02.

Most people outside of Shreveport haven't, either. He'd really have to work to raise his name rec, and he's only sitting on about $500K.

Of the five Republican districts his is the least-red, but Fleming is still considered the most conservative Republican in the delegation.

Fleming is best known for taking an Onion story about an abortionplex seriously and posting it to his Facebook page.

[Miles]

Mel Watt is being considered by the Obama Administration to lead FHFA, which oversees Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

The 67-year old Rep. Watt is one of the most senior Democrats on the House Financial Services Committee.

If he is chosen and confirmed by the Senate, he would obviously relinquish his House seat. Watt is the only Representative that CD12 has had since it was re-established after the 1990 census.

[Miles]

Here's a good bit of history: 40 years ago today, Lindy Boggs became the first woman from Louisiana elected to House. She served from 1973 to 1991 and succeeded her husband, the legendary Hale Boggs. My uncle, who currently serves in the State House, interned for her.

Senator Landrieu wrote a nice piece in the Times-Picayune calling Boggs a great mentor and praising her for her service.

[Miles]

Hmm, I don't know how I missed this article from a few weeks ago, but The Hill suggests that the longer Cassidy waits to pull the trigger, the messier things will get for Republicans.

The article also suggets that this isn't atypical of Cassidy. If he runs, it looks like he wants to have all his ducks in a row. There actually is some precedent here; when he first ran for Congress, in 2008, Cassidy waited until almost July to announce, leaving him just over 4 months to campaign.

[Miles]

Surprise! Dardenne is running for Governor!

[Miles]

Who do the Dems run if not Mitch?

Last month, Rep. John Bel Edwards got in.

[Miles]

Tillis made some interesting comments last week about the voter ID package that Republicans are pushing. According to him fraud "isn't the primary reason" that for the laws. Really? I guess one is left to assume that the primary reason is to make it harder for people to vote.

Also down further in the article, was that McCrory held a fundraiser for Tillis last Friday night in Charlotte. 'Kinda makes sense, actually. McCrory happened to be in town last weekend as he was the in St. Patrick's Day parade the following day. I guess he thought he'd make the best of the trip and help out his buddy Tillis before partying!

[Miles]

I went to look at Google News today and Mary Landrieu's picture was appearing in with a few of the front page headlines. Apparently the stories were about the Senate budget that narrowly passed 50-49.

Four red state Democrats voted against: Baucus, Begich, Pryor and Hagan. Lautenberg was absent.

[Miles]

As admirable as Claire McCaskill's SSM announcement was, its become somewhat of an onus on her colleagues who don't have the luxury having to wait six years 'til their next campaign. Some Democrats, who, 'ya know, have to actually run in conservative states next year, are being pressured on their stances.

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[Miles]

BOOM!

This is why I love my Senator:

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[Miles]

In case anyone missed it, Kay Hagan has come out in favor of SSM.

I'd advise Landrieu to stay quiet on this. This may disappoint some liberals in New Orleans, but she needs to hold onto socially conservative voters, especially in Acadiana.

[Miles]

There's been some enthusiasm on the right for Renee Ellmers, who I objectively don't think would be a particularly good candidate, but whatever.

Anyway, when asked about running for Senate, she deferred to the Good Lord:

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[Miles]

Its really hard to say. I think it would have helped slightly with blacks in the bigger cities, especially Fayetteville and Charlotte. For the rural blacks, NC-01 was actually a pretty good bellwether for the state.

[Miles]

Fleming has sent out releases criticizing Landrieu for her vote for the Senate Democratic budget. The Times-Picayune suggests that saber-rattling means that he's getting increasingly serious about running.

Other than his criticisms, there was this bit about Fleming:

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[Miles]

Landrieu is cowering in fear I'm sure.

Well, Santorum won Louisiana by more than 20 points, so he musn't have done too bad a job

But, yeah, I'd welcome Fleming to take the plunge.

[Miles]

While we're talking about Ellmers, here's one issue that she's been known for. Last year, she tried to have one of the main Post Office buildings in Raleigh renamed after Jesse Helms. It sparked lots of pushback from progressive groups and the bill has been stalled.

[Miles]

How bout that! Since rolling out her support for gay marriage, Hagan has gotten some fundraising help.   

LGBT Democrats of North Carolina raised just over $2,000 for her within 5 hours. There could also be such efforts down the road.

One bit of bad news is that Nate Silver is projecting that NC will be the 9th slowest-trending state in terms of SSM support. Despite its swigny status, NC finds itself sandwiched in between Tennessee and Texas on this issue.

[Miles]

'All hands on deck!!!

David Rouzer will be running again in 2014 after losing to McIntyre by 654 votes last year.

Fortunately, McIntyre has been hard at work reaching out to his new constituents, such as opening three offices in Johnston County.