NC 2016 Gubernatorial Discussion Thread

[Miles]

So in other words, the General Assembly stays in Republican hands thisyear decade

[Miles]

If then-State Treasurer Richard Moore (D) had been the Dems nominee for NC Governor in 2008 and not Perdue, would he have done better ?

No; I think he'd have lost in 2008. He wouldn't have got the votes out east to offset McCrory's Charlotte strength.

[Miles]

Well, you know you're failing when you run on your private sector background but a majority of the business community still gives you bad grades:

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[Miles]

Would Hilary Clinton on the 2016 ballot help or hurt the NC Dems in down ballot statewide elections?

Probably help. Its hard to assess how well Obama's coalition in the urban areas will hold up, but she'll help in the rural areas.

[Miles]

Melissa Harris-Perry rips McCrory on his handling of NC-12.

[Miles]

Buried down in their Senate poll release, Rasmussen has McCrory at a pretty even 46/47 approval split.

[Miles]

PPP has polled a quintet of Assembly House seats. Republicans there are generally tied or trailing hypothetical Democrats. Here's how McCrory's margin's there have held up:

SD8 (Wilson and Pitt counties)
McCrory 2012- 56/43
Mccrory 2014- 38/50

HD9 (eastern Pitt County)
12- 58/40
14- 38/48

HD36 (Wake County- southern Cary)
12- 59/38
14- 39/52

HD45 (Cumberland County)
12- 57/41
14- 38/45

HD118 (Haywood, Madison, Yancey Counties)
12- 58/40
14- 28/59

[Miles]

Only way McCrory loses reelection is if he gets caught in a sex scandal.

You're getting very close to my ignore list.

[Miles]

Roy Cooper is out with a new video doubling down on his criticisms of the current regime. I think the new age-ish music in the background is a bit tacky and subtracts from the overall message, but I'm glad he's taking these steps.

[Miles]

High Point University polled the approvals of these guys:

Obama- 40/54
McCrory- 37/40
Hagan- 33/43
Burr- 29/29
NCGA- 32/51
Congress- 12/80

It doesn't bug me that Hagan has only 33% favorables, as Burr is very low too; she just needs to get her negatives down. Those ads have played a big part in that.

[Miles]

This poll is from Civitas, so make of it what you will. Obama has a 45/52 approval in NC while McCrory is at 48/42.

[Miles]

Roy Cooper will be appealing the ruling that struck down NC's ultrasound law, despite McCrory's opposition.

[Miles]

McCrory and Assembly Republicans are making a big education announcement tomorrow. I was expecting, ya know, more cuts and privatization, but this would be good:

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[Miles]

PPP has McCrory at 39/44 but he won't be a pushover. He leads Cooper 43-41. Cooper's favorables are 27/18.

[Miles]

In minor news, there was this little incident over the weekend.

McCrory was shopping at a gourmet grocery in Charlotte, which is actually next to my high school. A chef started to ask him if he needed help; when he realized it was McCrory, the chef said "Thanks for nothing" and walked away. McCrory started yelling at him and they go into something of a shouting match. The chef was subsequently fired.

I sympathize with the guy, but definitely not the route I would have gone. I would probably have helped him while making sarcastic comments or something.

[Miles]

McCrory didn't have any bodyguards ?

This is a wealthy neighborhood and he was just out shopping.

Wolverine: Yep, you're preachin' to the choir buddy

[Miles]

As this will be a big issue in the campaign, an NC Superior Court judge has halted the implementation of the NCGA's school voucher plan.

[Miles]

McCrory writes about the grocery incident last weekend.

Again, I'm obviously not a fan of McCrory, but if I were the cook, thats not the way I would have handled it.

Mayor Cannon has offered to help find the cook a new job.

[Miles]

HPU is out with a new survey and finds more of the same: no one in NC is popular.

Obama: 40/53 (40/54)
McCrory: 37/50 (37/40)
Hagan: 35/51 (33/43)
Burr: 33/39 (29/29)

Trendlines are from the beginning of the month.

[Miles]

McCrory goes on CNN Crossfire.

You can tell Van Jones and McCrory are thinking "screw you" as they smile at each other.

[Miles]

Elon has a poll out which mostly echoes the High Point poll.

[Miles]

American Insights, the firm that put out a questionable poll of the Senate race last week, has McCrory's approval at 43/40 and leading Cooper 44-38.

[Miles]

Pretty much the same picture from PPP this month. McCrory is at 40/47. Only 30% approve of how he handled the coal ash spill, 44% don't.

Dems lead 45-42 on the generic ballot, but both parties in the NCGA are equally as unpopular.

[Miles]

I'm not sure about Shuler. When PPP was polling every high profile Dem in the state right after Perdue retired, even the voters in the mountain area had a bet negative view of him. Also, enthusiasm from liberal Democrats might be an issue.

[Miles]

Former Raleigh mayor Charles Meeker is going on a 'listening tour,' possibly with 2016 ambitions in mind.