The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)

[Miles]

And AP calls it for Babin.

Thats it for TX federal races tonight, folks.

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^ Aren't the parts that are left in SD2 friendly to Bob Hall though? Should be enough to carry him.

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As usual, maps!

CD4:



Pretty consistent performance by Ratcliffe. Ironically, Hall lost most of the counties he's represented the longest. He got most of his strongest counties as a result of the Delaymander 10 years ago.

CD36:



In contrast to CD4, where there were several close counties, there aren't any bellwether counties here. Streusand got 66% in Harris County. Harris, though, only cast 34% of the district's vote and Babin crushed everywhere else.

[Miles]

^ And the map for SD-02



Maps from TX-23

Runoff:



Primary:



2nd place in the primary:

[Miles]

More TX maps.

I did the swing from the TX-04 primary to the runoff. There were really two ways of looking at it.

First, I looked at the Hall vs. Not-Hall vote. In this scenario, Hall gained in most counties. He went from trailing the combined Not-Hall candidates 45.4/54.6 to losing to Ratcliffe 47.2/52.8. Overall, that makes for about a 16% point swing districtwide in Hall's favor:



Next, this is strictly the Hall vs. Ratcliffe numbers. Ratcliffe gained 22 points between the primary and runoff, going from a 16-point loss to 6-point win. The only county that Ratcliffe lost ground in, and only slightly so, was Marion, which he still carried both times anyway.

[Miles]

The AP has county breakdowns for MS! A nice luxury, as TX last week didn't.

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FWIW, RRH said not to bother with the SoS sites for MS, NJ or AL.

Stick with the AP or AoSHQDD.

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Hinds County (Jackson) is starting to come in and its 76% Cochran.

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Cochran leading 51-48 with 54 precincts in.

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First returns in AL-06 have DeMarco out front (29%) with Beason and Brooke vying for 2nd place (each 7 or 8 behind DeMarco).

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6% in and Cochran is holding 52%.

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Vote dump from Hinds puts Cochran up to 53-46.

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Gene Taylor is winning big on the Coast. Too bad the district extends all the way up to Jones County.

He's up 49/47 in Jackson County. Hopefully that margin expands some more.

He's at 54-41 overall with 16% in.

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AP calls NJ-03 for MacArthur.

For MS, a god part of McDaniel base is in, I think, so thats good for Cochran.

[Miles]

Anyway, why have always though that Gene Taylor was a Democrat?

He just changed parties this year to challenge Palazzo.

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^Dammit.

21% for Senate and Cochran leads 50-49.

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Recent big dump in Jasper seems to be what just propelled McDaniel (and Palazzo) up.

And DeSoto started checking in. Look for what Rankin does.

Jones too; thats the part of McDaniel base that was out.

[Miles]

Who'd be favored in a Palazzo-Taylor run-off?

Depends on how Taylor does outside of the coast.

He actually has some room to improve in Jackson (the largest coastal county), leading 49-47;  I could see him getting that up in a runoff.

[Miles]

Wow, Taylor and Palazzo are 88 votes apart. Wasserman says runoff a real possibility.

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DeMarco looks like he has all but clinched clinched the first runoff spot with 18%. Second is anyone's game.

Apparently, Mathis is doing worse than expected in Shelby county (Birmingham).

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25% in for DeSoto county (neutral area) and McDaniel up 62-36.

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DeMarco looks like he has all but clinched clinched the first runoff spot with 18%. Second is anyone's game.

Apparently, Mathis is doing worse than expected in Shelby county (Birmingham).

Birmingham suburbs, right?  Because Birmingham is in Jefferson County, I believe.

Sorry; Birmingham is Jefferson. My mistake.

[Miles]

43% for Senate

Cochran- 51%
McDaniel- 47%

41% for CD4; Taylor and Palazzo are tied at 47%.

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43% in, Cochran pulls above 50. 51-47-2.

Anyone have a precinct map of MS-Sen?

Precinct? No, but here's a county map.

[Miles]

56% in and Cochran at 50.3%.

If Cochran can keep edging out McDaniel in the CD1 counties, it may be enough.