2014 US Congressional Election Results

[Miles]

^ I was kinda shocked when I saw that LA-03 went more Republican than LA-01.

It really shows how Republican rural whites have gotten. LA-01 is actually the most white, but Landrieu's crossover appeal in the New Orleans metro cancelled that out.

10 years ago, it would have never seemed that CD3 would be more R than CD5.

Well Dems are always going to have a higher floor in the 5th due to the black population.

Yep. Still, given the north's history of being more like the rest of the deep south with Acadiana being more liberal, its interesting.

[Miles]

Jefferson Parish:

[Miles]

^ Yeah, thats the vibe I get. New Orleans is getting more of a white liberal influence, which is also starting to trickle out into the suburbs.

Baton Rouge:




Despite all that red, Landrieu did exactly the same as Obama.

[Miles]

^ Don't know about county results, but I can get you parish results

OurCampaigns actually has pretty good maps:

LA-05

LA-06

[Miles]

Landrieu's result really shows how brutal Pryor's was. Here's what LA would look like, with uniform swing, if Landrieu lost by the same margin as Pryor:



Most notably, Landrieu loses East Baton Rouge Parish (by less than a point).

[Miles]

Acadiana is (AFAIK) more populist economically (though most of this populism is in the past), but deeply socially conservative (Catholic belief?), so now, when Democratic party is substantially more liberal socially, then economically (as in FDR time), that makes lot of sense...

The problem, IMO, is that you're not really gonna see that liberal populist streak return as long as the region votes Republican. It really disappoints me that LA seems to be losing its 'uniqueness'; that economic populism is part of what makes (made) LA different.

Yes, voters there are very hung up on social issues. Basically, they now vote the Catholic way on social issues, but not the Catholic was on economic issues as they used to.

[Miles]

Converesly, Pryor losing by Landrieu's margin:

[Miles]

Barrow's % improvement over Nunn:

[Miles]

^ Turnout statewide was down 50.85% (!) from 2014.

Here's a 'turnout trend' map; red counties had dropoffs less than the state as a whole, blue counties more:



Turnout was down the most in the delta, but there were a few other areas with really step decreases.

[Miles]

^ Turnout is also much lower in the Democratic seats. Going off my Governor by CD chart, CD6 (Safe D) cast almost three times as many votes as CD7 (Safe D).

[Miles]

I applied a uniform swing to Obama's 2012 performance so that he would have won by the same (two-party) margin as Warner. The southwest clearly was the biggest thing that saved Warner; he did almost 10% better than Obama's baseline in VA-09:



If Warner matched Obama in VA-09, his statewide lead would be cut to just under 6K votes, down from 17K.

[Miles]

^ I guess the point I was trying to make is that the southwest propped Warner up the most.