LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races

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NC-03: Despite an (uncomfortably) close primary last cycle, the mavericky Rep. Walker Jones will run again.

He had this to say about the House leadership:

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The expectation is that his challenger, Taylor Griffin, will run again in the primary.

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*Sigh* If only this was a campaign issue last year...

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^ Grier Martin is still in office, though he had a redistricting-induced break in his tenure.

Jackson would be good someday, its just not his 'time' yet.  

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Well, I hate to say this, but the more I hear about Hagan possibly running again, the more I'm falling in line with the CW. As much as I think she should be the Senate, I don't know if another tough campaign would pay off. Ceteris paribus, I think the deck is too stacked against her.

The main barrier, IMO, seems to be that her favorables are still not good. If they were closer to even, I'd feel differently, but they're still in the 38/50-ish range. She doesn't deserve those types of numbers. It doesn't seem right or fair that her favorables are that low, but it is what it is.

Unless she massively turns around here image she'd need a clearly favorable environment, Burr to make a Dole-esque gaffe, or both. Knowing Burr's style, the latter seems unlikely.

Burr is a slippery fellow. Sure, he's a partisan footsoldier, but he's not an outright loathsome POS like Tillis.

Hagan is a good campaigner, but bigger states are generally harder to work going on personality politics.

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NC-03: Jones is drawing a second primary challenger in Marine veteran Phil Law; this guy looks like he'd be a third wheel after Jones and Griffin.

Overall, though, this may be a net positive for Jones, as Law could feasibly split the anti-incumbent vote. For example, Law hails from the CD's most populous county, Onslow, which actually voted for Griffin in 2014.

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LA-04: Fleming fanning the flames of xenophobia:

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Elon has the closet Hagan/Burr poll I've seen; Burr only leads 44/43.

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John Kennedy is running for reelection as Treasurer.

The implication is he'll run for Senate, as he's even endorsed Vitter for Governor.

It would be an interesting matchup with Kennedy and Fleming. Kennedy is sitting on $4 million, in large part accumulated from running unopposed in 2011, so that would make fundraising less of an issue for him going into a Senate race.

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^ Old as its getting, his prostitution scandal effectively precludes him from moving into the caucus leadership at any point down the road.

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I got an email from Landrieu saying she'll be an energy advisor with a Washington DC firm. I guess that settles the question if she'll run again.

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^ Ah, aren't we just so smart!

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NC-03: Jones is (probably) getting another primary challenger:

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His challenger from last year, Taylor Griffin, was planning on running again, last I heard.

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NC-03: NC Transportation Secretary Tony Tata isn't running, leaving the primary a rematch between Jones and Griffin, ATM.

LA-04 might be an open seat next year (Fleming is high on the shortlist for potential Non-Vitter 2016 senate nominees), and is only R+13 (It's actually the only republican district less than R+15, looks like Jindal knows how to gerrymander.). Any chance it flips in a 2008-style wave?

It would be tough, even though the district is trending Democratic. Republicans have a decent bench to draw from in the Shreveport area. OTOH, Elbert Guillory represents part of this district; seeing as he'll be boxed out of the LG contest this year (and likely his State Senate seat), he'd could look at this race. I suppose the Republicans need to reward him somehow for his treasonous ways.

To start, any Democrat would have to win the Caddo Parish by a larger vote margin than the Republican wins Bossier. Further south, the parishes near the Toledo Bend are especially rough; the Democrat would need to be at or approaching 30% in Sabine/Vernon/Beauregard parishes.

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Democrats finally have a candidate to run against Burr in Mayor Chris V. Rey.

Rey is mayor of Spring Lake (pop. 13K), a town in Cumberland County near Fayetteville. He was previously mentioned for other statewide offices, specifically LG, but I give him credit him for stepping up to the plate here.

Here's Rey and his family last election campaigning for Sen. Hagan:

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^ He's been touted for a while as a rising star in state politics, so I'd say he's a decent recruit. In terms of biography/demographics, being an African-American war veteran should play well in both the primary and general. Its a contrast to Burr, who's blandness has been a strength so far.

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Former State Rep. Deborah Ross (D) is stepping down from her role at the transit authority, which makes it more likely she'll run for Senate.

Ross spent 10 years representing a Raleigh-area seat; before that was state director of the ACLU.  

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Chris Rey's intro video.

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Despite being favored for reelection Janet Cowell isn't running for Treasurer again. Her name had been mentioned for Senate, but it sounds like she's out altogether, at least for 2016.

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I mentioned upthread that Deborah Ross was making moves towards running - it looks like she's pulled the trigger.

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^ The good thing for Ellmers, and Jones, is that the primary is now held with the Presidential primary; the electorate will be less ideological/candidate-driven now.

Yeah, Roche is running again plus two other local GOP party activists. There are any number of solid GOP state legislators, from Wake County to the Piedmont, who could probably take her out one-on-one. I think she can still cobble together 40% as long as the opposition is split between a trio of C-listers.

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LA-Sen: Angelle is reportedly considering running for Senate next year, whether or not Vitter is still holding the seat:

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If Boustany still runs for Senate, LA-03 would also be a logical option for Angelle.

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Vitter only has $26K left in his federal account. He'd be in real trouble if he loses this month and then tries to run for reelection.

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He probably couldn't win in Louisiana, but just to be sure, Jindal isn't running for Senate.

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NC-07: It sounds like Woody White, former New Hanover County Commissioner, will run against Rouzer again in the primary. In 2014, Rouzer won the primary 53/40.

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Quick look at the NC-03 primary rematch between Walter Jones and Taylor Griffin.

It would be awful to see Jones defeated, IMO, but the result last time was too close for my comfort.