LA and NC 2016 Congressional Races

[Miles]

LA-Sen/LA-03: Boustany will have a "formal announcement" soon in Lafayette. I think we know what that means.

[Miles]

^ I like Angelle the most - mainly because he didn't buckle under the party's pressure on him to endorse Vitter for Gov. That said, I expect him to run for LA-03 now, as it's looking like it'll be open

But yeah, Boustany and Kennedy are better than anyone from the far-right (Fleming, Maness, etc.).

[Miles]

The only Democrat who could probably make LA-04 a race is Foster Campbell. Interestingly, he serves on the Public Service Commission with Aneglle - would be something if they both moved up.

Far-right Republicans would probably get behind State Rep. Alana Seabaugh if he ran.

[Miles]

^ Sort of ironic that he just won the State Senate seat this year. He'd look sort of opportunistic.

[Miles]

^ Great! He lives in CD5. We'll watch him get crushed again.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: Sean Haugh, the Libertarian last year who got almost 4%, will be running again.

[Miles]

^ Judging by where his votes came from, it looks he got a good protest vote from conservative Democrats. He did well in places like Columbus and Montgomery counties, but relatively poorly in the suburbs (where you'd naturally expect a more Libertarian-leaning constituency).

 

[Miles]

Ugh, Taylor Griffin filed today in NC-03.

It reminded me that I never got around to making a map of the last race. I really hope Jones can pull it out again:

[Miles]

^ The thing is Jones always overperforms in the general because a lot of registered Democrats vote for him. He and Coble were the only two House Republicans in the state to run ahead of Romney in 2012, IIRC.

Jones votes his conscience, which is refreshing, but problematic from a fundraising/purity perspective. He's mavericky on fiscal issues (calling to repeal Glass-Steagall and Citizens United, for example). Jones is also known for his pacifism on foreign policy - since he represents many military personnel, he was disgusted at the Bush neocons for lying to him about the war and has been in the Ron Paul faction of the party ever since.

Taylor Griffin, a former Bush staffer and lobbyist, ran last year and, was endorsed by Sarah Palin. As you'd expect, Griffin was bankrolled largely by the defense industry and K Street.

The primary this year is will be held with the Presidential primary and should thus generate larger turnout. Good for Jones, considering NC primaries are still open and he has more crossover appeal. Its earlier too, in mid-March compared to early May as in previous years. If, for example, Rand Paul is still in the race, thats would probably help Jones downballot.

Also notice on the map that Jones generally did better in counties with more NC natives, who remember his father. In Carteret and Craven counties, for example, you've seen a steady influx of new, wealthier residents looking for beachfront property - obviously this crowd isn't as loyal to the Jones family.

The county to watch will be Onslow. Its relatively neutral in terms of Jones' base being Pitt and Griffin's being Craven. It went for Jones last time but only by 2.5%.

[Miles]

Ex-State Sen. Troy Hebert (D->I) who represented St. Martin and Iberia parishes is considering running for Senate. He was State Tobacco and Alcohol Commissioner under Jindal, and will leave that as the Jindal Administration comes to a close.

Hebert was a conservative Democrat, as you'd expect. Still if the Democrats don't have a strong candidate, Hebert could feasibly emerge as an Orman figure in a runoff with a Republican.

[Miles]

^ And that just got a bit more likely, as Mitch Landrieu is out:

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[Miles]

I've heard ex-Rep. Don Cazayoux's name mentioned, and he made a few local media appearances leading up to the Gov. election, IIRC. 

[Miles]

LA-Sen: Rob Maness is running again for Senate. Good news for Boustany, as he'll take anti-establishment votes from Fleming. During the Gov campaign, Maness implied that JBE winning would be worse than America losing WW1, so obviously a nut.

[Miles]

Former Jefferson Parish President John Young (R) is reportedly considering a Senate run. He ran for LG this year - despite a strong showing in Jefferson Parish (46% in a three-way race), Young barely missed the runoff.

Overall, he has decent crossover appeal. From what I heard during the campaign, if the runoff was R-on-R, Democrats would have coalesced around him against Nungesser. Young also finished first in a majority of northern LA parishes, suggesting he made inroads beyond his base.

As Smolty puts it, he'd be one of the 'saner' Republicans, along with Fleming, Kennedy, and possibly Angelle.

[Miles]

ex-Rep. Joseph Cao (R) is also running for Vitter's seat.

[Miles]

This is turning into the free-for-all we were initially expecting in 2014 (well, at least on the R side). Not surprising, as Vitter is checked out and musn't be strong-arming some into not running like he did last time.

Tactically, I guess this would hurt John Young the most, if he runs. His base is next door in Metairie and would have naturally picked up the Republicans in the area.

[Miles]

^ Fleming and Maness already are, so they should share the vast majority of the tea party vote.

[Miles]

^ He'd be the type of Democrat that could win. He also has nothing to lose, as he's termed out in 2019 anyway.

The ideal scenario for Dems would be an intraparty runoff with him and Gary Smith. Both are blue doggish and could most feasibly hold the seat going forward.

[Miles]

Reportedly Greg Brannon filed to run against Burr.

[Miles]

Excellent! This should make up for MD and IL.

Which don't even make up for OH, PA and MI.

[Miles]

WATN: Sen. Hagan is joining a DC law firm. She obvious already ruled out running this year, but looks like she's done with elected office.

[Miles]

LA-Sen: Two more white Democrats, both hailing from the center of the state, are considering: three-term Alexandria Mayor Jacques Roy and State Rep. Robert Johnson (Avoyelles Parish).

Johnson ran in the crowded LA-05 special race a few years ago. He finished with just 10%, but got 63% in Avoyelles Parish.

[Miles]

NC-Sen: The AFL-CIO endorsed Ross. NC is the least unionized state in the country, but this could precipitate support from other similar state outfits and make Ross' path to the nomination that much clearer.

[Miles]

NC-03: FreedomWorks endorsing Jones.

[Miles]

LA-04: Known opportunist Elbert Guillory (R->D->R) is running for LA-04, though I heard he was more likely to run for LA-03. Guillory ran for LG last year but didn't get very far.