Wisconsin Megathread

[Gass3268]

If only she and the Wisconsin Democratic party realized she didn't "fit the mold" before she lost a winnable governor's race.

She probably did the best that anyone could do, other than Feingold or maybe Kind. The Democratic Party of Wisconsin is awful and we have little to no bench.

[Gass3268]

Good work ElectionsGuy!

I don't know if I would group the counties the same way, but it does show what the two sides need to do to win. Obama won the state in 2008 by winning every region but the Milwaukee Suburbs and the Milwaukee Exurbs. However in a much closer race in 2012, we see what a Democrat needs to do to win. Dane and Milwaukee Counties will always be there for them, especially in the hyper partisan environment that we are currently in. They then need get decent margins in Southwestern Wisconsin (better than Burke did) and win the Central-West and Southeast (Kenosha/Racine) region (unlike Burke). The final thing that needs to happen is the Democrat needs to keep the margins close in the North (an old Democratic region that is moving away, other than the Lake Superior shoreline which is more like Northeast Minneosta) and the Fox River Valley (old Republican stronghold that has gotten somewhat more competitive). Obviously the scenario is reversed for a Republican and that is exactly what Walker did in all three elections, do a varying degree.

[Gass3268]

wow those Milwaukee suburbs really carried Walker's margin.

The thing is those margins can't carry the state for Republicans. Dane + Milwaukee = WOW counties + Exurban Counties in almost every election. So in almost every election those four regions with wash each other out. That's why it is the rest of the state that determines who wins. This is why Walker has won 3 times and Obama has won twice.

[Gass3268]

Did Walker carry the WI-03 CD? It looks close to me.

Yes he did.

[Gass3268]

One caveat I'd like to throw in here is that you can't trust 2008 presidential numbers in Wisconsin to be indicative of much of anything. A 2008-2012 Republican trend is most likely just a reversion to the mean in prior presidential elections in the rural parts of the state. There has been a lot of discussion about the trends in SW Wisconsin in favor of the Dems and NW Wisconsin in favor of the Republicans (compare 2012 to 2004 or 2000). I wouldn't be shocked to see everything north of La Crosse except for the city of Eau Claire and Portage Counties become Republican territory in the near future.

But the real key to WI-3 is to find a moderate Republican who has the right kind of crossover appeal. We do have a lot of state legislators from this area. But it's super-elastic and certainly won't be safe for us or particularly close against Kind.

As for Duffy, while it was made safer than probably necessary for him, it was made to make sure he could survive a wave. The Republicans wanted to make sure they could still get 5 congressmen out of Wisconsin in another 2008 scenario. Duffy still isn't completely safe in a wave because of just how swingy the rural parts of the state are, though most people agree the long term trends are in Duffy's favor.

I agree a lot with this analysis. Really one could view 08 as the high watermark for Democrats in the state and 10 as the high watermark for Republicans. I agree that in most typical elections, north of La Crosse, the only automatic counties for Democrats will be Eau Claire and Portage Counties (along with the Lake Superior counties of Ashland, Bayfield and Douglas, but those are automatics).

Yet it would really depend on the type of election to really judge the others. Races were the Democrat wins is gonna involve them carrying almost all of the counties near the Mississippi River (Buffalo, Jackson, Pepin, and Trempealeau), counties with a University town (Dunn and in a very good year Pierce), and your occasional Northwoods county (Chippewa, Lincoln, Sawyer, Price or Washburn).

The 3rd won't be close as long as Ron Kind is around, but it's becoming more and more likely he's gonna run for the Senate or Governor in the near future. I think the Republicans could only win this district if it was a midterm election and they clearly nominated someone that was a moderate like former their former Congressman Steve Gunderson. Yet because of how the seat was drawn, Democrats do have a pretty good bench in this district. State Senators Julie Lassa, Jennifer Shilling and Kathleen Vinehout would all be pretty strong candidates with with a good base of support in the district.

[Gass3268]

Some Stronger Rumblings That Feingold May Run Against Johnson In 2016

[Gass3268]

Walker v Burke by State Assembly District

[Gass3268]

2014 Assembly Elections. Notice the large amounts of uncontested seats.

[Gass3268]

Hopefully they dont throw in exemptions for republican leaning unions like they were talking about doing.

Will exclude police and fire unions

[Gass3268]

Hopefully they dont throw in exemptions for republican leaning unions like they were talking about doing.

Will exclude police and fire unions

I'm generally positive about RTW, but these stupid exemptions kind of bug me. Why not be consistent?

You don't want to piss off your allies and donors. Even though both the Fire and Police Unions supported the protesters in 2011, even after having their collective bargaining rights preserve.

[Gass3268]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8iwBM_YB1sE

Good to know that the continual decline in the middle class makes you excited.

[Gass3268]

Fitzgerald says he has the votes to pass it in the Senate. Republicans control the chamber 18-14 and Fitzgerald has said 17 from his caucus will vote for it.

Interested to see what Republican votes Nay.

[Gass3268]

Bill passes the Senate, 17-15. Sen. Jerry Petrowski of Marathon is the only Republican to vote against it.

[Gass3268]

Feingold reaching out to supporters.

Awesome! That being said, hopefully he has learned from his crappy campaign in 2010.

[Gass3268]

Walker Compares Labor Unions and ISIS

[Gass3268]

Luckily Wisconsin has only voted out a siting Supreme Court Justice I think like 2-3 times in its history. Also hoping that the Revenge Amendment doesn't pass.

[Gass3268]

AOSHQDD projects Bradley reelected and the referendum passing.

You win some, you lose some.

[Gass3268]

AP calls the race for Bradley.

[Gass3268]

Paul Soglin was reelected as Mayor of Madison, by a pretty large margin.

[Gass3268]

AP calls the Supreme Court referendum for the yes side.

[Gass3268]

Paul Soglin was reelected as Mayor of Madison, by a pretty large margin.

Not shocking. I even voted for him.

Not shocking at all, Resnick only won the campus area.

[Gass3268]

Abrahamson has sued, arguing that the referendum should only apply when her current term ends in 4 years.

Makes sense, Wisconsin elected her to be Chief Justice, not an Associate Justice.

[Gass3268]

2015 Supreme Court Referendum


2015 Supreme Court Race

[Gass3268]

Althouse has analyzed this at length.

Yup. Abrahamson's argument makes no sense. Even if she were re-elected as Chief Justice, if the constitution changes, she wouldn't necessarily still hold that position. This reminds me of when Cuyahoga County massively overhauled its county charter and a bunch of sitting office holders had their positions taken away from them. Shirley Abrahamson's power as Chief Justice stems from her being given that power by the Wisconsin State Constitution. After April 29th, the Wisconsin State Constitution will no longer give her that power. That's how amendments work.

I must say though, that the voters of Wisconsin re-elected Bradley and passed that amendment makes no sense. I would love to hear a coherent explanation of someone could vote for Bradley and Yes on the amendment. Yet, both passed, so clearly a lot of people did.

Did not know that at all, yeah her argument has no grounds.

To your second point, Supreme Court Justices almost always get reelected in Wisconsin. Since the 1950's, sitting Justices have only lost twice, in 1967 and 2008. I'm not entirely sure why either. My guess would be a mix of low information voters, low voter enthusiasm as the elections are both in the Spring and the off-off-year and I know that Nhoj has said that parts of the state, especially the Northern part of the state, are very deferential to incumbents outside of waves.

Now why many of these same folks supported the referendum is a good question. I imagine that many felt like it was the more democratic thing to do. EDIT: Ha, Nhoj essentially said what I was gonna say.

[Gass3268]

Cross posting here:

Obama/Walker Era Wisconsin

I wanted to come up with the average Wisconsin map since President Obama was elected in 2008. I decided to use all major statewide elections that have taken place since from 2008 onward. I have made three maps from this data. One that adds up the votes from each election in every Wisconsin county and then finds the partisan percentage by dividing it by total votes cast from 2008 onward. The second map takes the percentages for each election and averages them for each county. The third map is a frequency map, showing the percentage each county went for the party/side that won the most times. I am counting non-partisan elections, as there are clear ideological classifications for the candidates in those elections that allow me to categorize them into either the Democratic or Republican camps.

Here are the elections that I used:

2015:
Supreme Court: Ann Bradley (Left) over James Daley (Right) 58.03%-41.89%

2014:
Governor:  Scott Walker (R) over Mary Burke (D) 52.26%-46.59%
Attorney General: Brad Schimel (R) over Susan Happ (D) 51.54%-45.39%
Secretary Of State: Doug La Follette (D) over Julian Bradley (R) 50.00%-46.29%
Treasurer: Matt Adamczyk (R) over David Sartori (D) 48.80%-44.73%

2013:
Superintendent Of Public Instruction: Tony Evers (Left) over Don Pridemore (Right) 61.15%-38.67%

2012:
President: Barack Obama (D) over Mitt Romney (R) 52.83%-45.89%
Senator: Tammy Baldwin (D) over Tommy Thompson (R) 51.41%-45.86%
Governor Recall: Scott Walker (R) over Tom Barrett (D) 53.08%-46.28%
Lieutenant Governor Recall: Rebecca Kleefisch (R) over Mahlon Mitchell (D) 52.89%-46.99%

2011:
Supreme Court: David Prosser (Right) over Joanne Kloppenburg 50.18%-49.71%

2010:
Senator: Ron Johnson (R) over Russ Feingold (D) 51.68%-47.02%
Governor: Scott Walker (R) over Tom Barrett (D) 52.25%-46.48%
Attorney General: J.B. Van Hollen (R) over Scott Hassett 57.79%-42.12%
Secretary Of State: Doug La Follette (D) over David King (R) 51.61%-48.30%
Treasurer: Kurt Shuller (R) over Dawn Sass (D) 53.39%-46.47%  

2009:
Superintendent Of Public Instruction: Tony Evers (Left) over Rose Fernandez (Right) 57.15%-42.74%
Supreme Court: Shirley Abrahamson (Left) over Randy Koschnick (Right) 59.67%-39.44%

2008:
President: Barack Obama (D) over John McCain (R) 56.22%-42.31%

Breakdown of Elections
Number of Elections: 19
Partisan Elections: 14
Non Partisan Elections: 5
Democratic/Left Leaning Victories: 9
Republican/Right Leaning Victories: 10

Statewide Election Percentages
County Totals Percentages: Democratic/Left Leaners 49.41% - Republicans/Right Leaners 49.07%
Average of County Percentages: Democratic/Left Leaners 50.52% - Republican/Right Leaners 48.18%  

County Totals Percentage Map


County Percentage Average Map


County Frequency Map