100 Senate Regions

[Gass3268]

Region: Tampa Bay (Brown)
Largest City: Tampa, FL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Odet Philipe
PVI: R+1

Obama 2012: 50.1%
Romney 2012: 48.6%

Obama 2008: 51.2%
McCain 2008: 47.5%

Region Swing: 2.2% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.2% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Florida: 100%

Region Comment
This district was originally drawn with Citrus and Levy counties. I wanted to avoid having to put Manatee or Sarasota counties in this region. I was eventually forced to put Manatee county in this region because of population issues in the not so pretty orange region. Volusia County has 16% of the population needed for region and when Manatee County is in the orange region adding Volusia County puts it over the maximum population allowed and taking it out drops it below the minimum. Charlie Crist won this district in 2014 for Governor, so he'd probably win this region if he wanted another stab at the Senate. Congressmen Gus Bilirakis and David Jolly would be good candidates for the Republicans.

[Gass3268]

Forgot to repost the map:

[Gass3268]

Region: Central Highlands (Purple)
Largest City: Orlando, FL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Zora Neale Hurston
PVI: R+2

Obama 2012: 49.7%
Romney 2012: 49.1%

Obama 2008: 50.7%
McCain 2008: 48.3%

Region Swing: 1.9% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.5% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Florida: 100%

Region Comment
This is the Orlando metropolitan area region. The metro area on its own does not have enough people for one region, so I added other Central Florida counties such as Lake, Osceola and Sumter counties. Bill Nelson lives in this region and during his last election he won all but two counties in this region. This would be his Senate seat.

[Gass3268]

Region: Cultural, Space & Treasure Coasts (Orange)
Largest City: Port St. Lucie, FL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Astronaut Guss Grissom
PVI: R+6

Obama 2012: 44.2%
Romney 2012: 54.6%

Obama 2008: 47.1%
McCain 2008: 51.8%

Region Swing: 5.7% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 2.3% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Florida: 100%

Region Comment
Unfortunately this region had to be the "extras" region as it takes in counties that did not or could not fit into the Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Tampa or Orlando regions. Patrick Murphy lives close to here and represents a portion of this region, but I think this would be a bit too difficult of terrain for him. More likely than not this region would be represented by a Republican like Tom Rooney or Bill Posey.

[Gass3268]

As I continue to look at CA between hangs of DRA, I conclude that there should be two 60+ HVAP districts in LAC where one connects to OC with Anaheim/Santa Ana. The best I could do with SB and Riverside was to add Pomona then stretch it all the way to Imperial then back along the border to SW SD county. That only gets to 58% HVAP, so 60+ isn't plausible there.

Other observations of CA. CA is just barely over 12 districts. SoCal minus Kern and Imperial is just right for 7 districts. Kern plus the north is almost exactly 5 districts. So keep Imperial with Arizona, but I'm not sure the Riverside chop follows your rules.

I really don't know yet what I am going to do with Southern California. I like the fact that Orange and San Diego counties have exactly enough for each to be their own region and I don't think I want to mess with that. I should have noted with my rules that no one rule is more important than the other and I should have noted that minority-majority collation regions, like the South Central Black/Hispanic and the Eastern LA County Asian/Hispanic regions, are acceptable. I feel like due to the sheer size of these regions, having minority collations would be necessary and probably allowable. My fear with making your proposed changes is that it would really mess up and dramatically alter the rest of the regions in the Southwest, especially in Arizona, Nevada and Utah. 

Rules might be equivalent, but the VRA must take priority. Coalition districts don't count for that purpose unless it's clear that the Latinos can outvote the other minorities to get their candidate of choice, which historically has not been the case. I think I have convinced myself that a third CD in SoCal for a Latino isn't practical, so you can leave SD intact and Imperial with Arizona. However, OC is in the same UCC as LAC, so it is reasonable to chop it to get a second solid Latino district.

I'll look into it, part of the reason I'm so hesitant to make the change is how slow my DRA is, lol!

[Gass3268]

As I continue to look at CA between hangs of DRA, I conclude that there should be two 60+ HVAP districts in LAC where one connects to OC with Anaheim/Santa Ana. The best I could do with SB and Riverside was to add Pomona then stretch it all the way to Imperial then back along the border to SW SD county. That only gets to 58% HVAP, so 60+ isn't plausible there.

Other observations of CA. CA is just barely over 12 districts. SoCal minus Kern and Imperial is just right for 7 districts. Kern plus the north is almost exactly 5 districts. So keep Imperial with Arizona, but I'm not sure the Riverside chop follows your rules.

I really don't know yet what I am going to do with Southern California. I like the fact that Orange and San Diego counties have exactly enough for each to be their own region and I don't think I want to mess with that. I should have noted with my rules that no one rule is more important than the other and I should have noted that minority-majority collation regions, like the South Central Black/Hispanic and the Eastern LA County Asian/Hispanic regions, are acceptable. I feel like due to the sheer size of these regions, having minority collations would be necessary and probably allowable. My fear with making your proposed changes is that it would really mess up and dramatically alter the rest of the regions in the Southwest, especially in Arizona, Nevada and Utah.  

Rules might be equivalent, but the VRA must take priority. Coalition districts don't count for that purpose unless it's clear that the Latinos can outvote the other minorities to get their candidate of choice, which historically has not been the case. I think I have convinced myself that a third CD in SoCal for a Latino isn't practical, so you can leave SD intact and Imperial with Arizona. However, OC is in the same UCC as LAC, so it is reasonable to chop it to get a second solid Latino district.

I'll look into it, part of the reason I'm so hesitant to make the change is how slow my DRA is, lol!

I'm working on a DRA pic of SoCal with two solid Latino districts in LAC+OC.

Meanwhile, removing the populations of Imperial, Inyo, Mono, and Alpine leaves CA with enough population for exactly 12 districts. The seven northern counties are an additional 440 K removed from CA, plus whatever is removed from Riverside. That means all the CA districts are depopulated in your plan by 1% to 2% on average. I presume there are other overpopulated districts that could give up population. Why depopulate CA so much?

It would be great to see what you can come up with for SoCal, its taking me hours just to draw a single district. I should note that the orange region with San Francisco and the northern Bay area includes Hawaii. I wanted to connect Hawaii with a mainland region could be majority Asian/Pacific Islander. Alaska is easy to connect to the mainland because there are some similarities with the Interior West, but its not as easy with Hawaii and it needs to go somewhere.

[Gass3268]

It would be great to see what you can come up with for SoCal, its taking me hours just to draw a single district. I should note that the orange region with San Francisco and the northern Bay area includes Hawaii. I wanted to connect Hawaii with a mainland region could be majority Asian/Pacific Islander. Alaska is easy to connect to the mainland because there are some similarities with the Interior West, but its not as easy with Hawaii and it needs to go somewhere.

Hawaii explains a lot. Did you consider attaching it to LAC? HI would fit very nicely with the non-Latino areas along the west coast of LAC including Hollywood, Santa Monica, Torrance, and Palos Verde, an area that includes LAX. BTW, how much are you moving from Riverside to Arizona?

456,795

And I did consider attaching it to LAC, other than wishing that the Asian areas around Pasadena were closer to the ocean.

[Gass3268]

I got DRA up long enough to put together a map for LA county. The two Latino CDs are both 62% HVAP and should be enough to comply with the VRA. The teal part from LAC can either connect to Ventura, SB, and SLO as here, or to Hawaii.



BTW, if the lime area includes all of Riverside and Imperial the HVAP rises over 48% and it becomes a Latino crossover district. I know that shorts your southern Arizona, but have you considered using the original form of AZ that included Clark NV and NM? That could be divided into three districts after the eastern part of NM was removed. The Reno area could then join with northern CA. I can draw it, if you are interested.

Sure, let me see it.

[Gass3268]

Region: Southwest Appalachia (Brown)
Largest City: Birmingham, AL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Helen Keller
PVI: R+16

Obama 2012: 35.3%
Romney 2012: 63.5%

Obama 2008: 35.7%
McCain 2008: 63.2%

Region Swing: 0.8% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 2.6% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Alabama: 100%

Region Comment
The objective for this region was for it to be essentially all of Alabama north of the Birmingham metropolitan area. This includes the Huntsville and Tuscaloosa areas, but not the Auburn or Montgomery metros. Richard Shelby is from this region and would represent this region in the Senate.

[Gass3268]

Region: Black Belt & Pines (Pink)
Largest City: Montgomery, AL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Rosa Parks
PVI: R+11

Obama 2012: 41.3%
Romney 2012: 57.9%

Obama 2008: 40.9%
McCain 2008: 58.3%

Region Swing: 0.9% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 4.3% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Alabama: 40%
Mississippi: 60%

Region Comment
The goal of this region was to combine what was left of Alabama and Mississippi after the creation of the Gulf Coast, Mississippi Delta, and Northern Alabama regions. Luckily there was exactly enough people here for a region. Thad Cochran lives in Hinds County, Mississippi which is in the Mississippi Delta region, but I could see him moving to this one and winning this region with no issue. Rodger Wicker is also from this region and he would also easily win here.

[Gass3268]

Region: Central Gulf Coast (Red)
Largest City: Mobile, AL
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Jean Lafitte
PVI: R+21

Obama 2012: 30.5%
Romney 2012: 67.9%

Obama 2008: 30.8%
McCain 2008: 67.8%

Region Swing: 0.4% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 3.0% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Alabama: 18%
Florida: 30%
Louisiana: 37%
Mississippi: 14%

Region Comment
My thoughts when creating this region was to essentially copy the boundary lines for old West Florida. This included what was left of the Florida panhandle west of the Apalachicola River, the gulf counties in both Alabama and Mississippi, and most of the New Orleans suburbs. Jeff Sessions and David Vitter both live in this region. Bill Cassidy lives in the Mississippi Delta region, but represented a good portion of the Louisiana portion of this region when he was in the House.

[Gass3268]

Region: Mississippi Delta (Orange)
Largest City: Memphis, TN
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: B.B. King
PVI: D+10

Obama 2012: 61.9%
Romney 2012: 36.6%

Obama 2008: 61.0%
McCain 2008: 38.1%

Region Swing: 2.4% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 5.8% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Arkansas: 6%
Louisiana: 41%
Mississippi: 22%
Tennessee: 31%

Region Comment
The objective of this region was to create an African American opportunity region. While I don't think that African Americans make up a majority of this region (I'm going to have to double check), they do make up a plurality and they would clearly have the majority in a Democratic primary. Cedric Richmond from New Orleans, LA and Bennie Thompson from Jackson, MS would both be strong candidates for this region.

[Gass3268]

Region: Acadiana & Timberlands (Blue)
Largest City: Shreveport, LA
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Senator Huey Long
PVI: R+13

Obama 2012: 38.5%
Romney 2012: 60.2%

Obama 2008: 38.9%
McCain 2008: 59.3%

Region Swing: 1.2% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 2.2% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Arkansas: 66%
Louisiana: 34%

Region Comment
The goal of this region was to add what was left of Louisiana with Southern Arkansas. Unfortunately where were parts of Southern Arkansas that I had to leave out due to population. This included the Texarkana metropolitan counties in Arkansas and Garland County (Hot Springs), AR. Charles Boustany and John Fleming would both be strong choices for Louisiana Republicans, while there are not any strong Arkansas Republicans for this seat. Mike Ross would probably be the best chance for a Democrat here, but after 2014 he would have little to no chance of winning.

[Gass3268]

Region: Ozarks (Brown)
Largest City: Springfield, MO
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Bill Clinton
PVI: R+20

Obama 2012: 29.9%
Romney 2012: 66.4%

Obama 2008: 34.5%
McCain 2008: 63.4%

Region Swing: 7.5% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 4.1% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Arkansas: 49%
Missouri: 51%

Region Comment
This takes what is left of Southern Missouri after the creation of St. Louis and Kansas City regions, in addition to Northern Arkansas. Senators Roy Blunt, John Boozman, and Tom Cotton are all from this region. They would all be strong candidates to represent this region.

[Gass3268]

Done with the South. For the purposes of how I've gone about drawing these districts, Oklahoma and Texas are in the West. The Dakotas, Eastern Kansas and Nebraska are in the Midwest. I figure this would be a good time to post the map again before jumping into Ohio and the Midwest. I also have made the changes to Texas from my conversations with Muon.

[Gass3268]

Region: Western Reserve (Blue)
Largest City: Cleveland, OH
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President James A. Garfield
PVI: D+7

Obama 2012: 58.8%
Romney 2012: 39.6%

Obama 2008: 59.5%
McCain 2008: 38.8%

Region Swing: 1.5% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 1.9% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Ohio: 100%

Region Comment
This region was drawn to include the Cleveland and Akron metropolitan areas. It needed one other county to get to the minimum population and originally I wanted to have Ashtabula County, OH in this region instead of Stark County (Canton), OH. But that did not provide enough population and adding both took it over the maximum population, so I just included Stark County, OH. Senator Sherrod Brown would represent this region in the Senate. Dave Joyce would be the Republicans best candidate to run here too.

Thanks to rpryor03 for giving me suggestions for candidates for the Ohio regions. Anyone else who wants to give me a suggestion should just shoot me a PM

[Gass3268]

Region: Miami River Valley (Yellow)
Largest City: Cincinnati, OH
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Ulysses S. Grant
PVI: R+9

Obama 2012: 42.4%
Romney 2012: 55.9%

Obama 2008: 43.9%
McCain 2008: 54.9%

Region Swing: 2.5% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.9% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Indiana: 5%
Kentucky: 14%
Ohio: 81%

Region Comment
This region is designed to be the Cincinnati metropolitan area. This area did not have enough people so I added a few counties in Indiana and Kentucky to make the region look better and I added a majority of the Dayton metropolitan area. Senator Rob Portman is from this region and would represent this region in the Senate. PG Sittenfield has senatorial ambitions and is from this region, but I cannot imagine him beating Portman here.

[Gass3268]

Region: Allegheny Plateau & Till Plains (Purple)
Largest City: Columbus, OH
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Warren G. Harding
PVI: R+2

Obama 2012: 50.2%
Romney 2012: 47.9%

Obama 2008: 49.8%
McCain 2008: 48.3%

Region Swing: 0.8% Towards Democrats
Region Trend: 4.2% Towards Democrats

State Component Percentage
Ohio: 100%

Region Comment
The final two Ohio regions were designed with the hopes that I could keep both entirely in the state and I was able to do this. I also wanted to keep the Columbus metropolitan area together for this particular region and combine it with most of the Appalachian region in Ohio. Interesting fact is Obama won this region in 2012 with only Athens and Franklin County. Personally I feel like former Democratic Governor Ted Strickland would be the favorite here as he was also popular in the Appalachian region which is traditionally Democratic, the southern part of the region swung to Obama in 2012, and Columbus is growing like crazy while swinging to the Democrats. Congressman Steve Stivers would be the strongest candidates for the Republicans for this region.

[Gass3268]

If you're looking for a district that connects Asian areas of Northern California with Hawaii, you'd be much better served going south from San Francisco into Santa Clara County. I'm not sure if that's feasible, but there aren't an inordinate number of Asians in the North Bay.

I'll look into that when I get DRA access tonight when I get home. Figuring out what to do for Hawaii for this project is always really annoying, especially compared to Alaska which is relatively easy.

[Gass3268]

Region: Lake Eire Shoreline (Orange)
Largest City: Toledo, OH
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Rutherford B. Hayes
PVI: R+4

Obama 2012: 47.4%
Romney 2012: 50.5%

Obama 2008: 49.2%
McCain 2008: 48.6%

Region Swing: 3.6% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.2% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Ohio: 100%

Region Comment
This region is everything that was left in Ohio, north and to the west of the Columbus metropolitan area. This would be a relatively competitive region, with the Republicans holding the advantage, so my guess would be that Congressman Jim Jordan would be the Senator from this region. Congressman Tim Ryan would be the best candidate for the Democrats and he'd have a reasonable chance of winning.

[Gass3268]

Region: Ohio River Lowlands (Beige)
Largest City: Indianapolis, IN
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Benjamin Harrison
PVI: R+6

Obama 2012: 43.3%
Romney 2012: 54.4%

Obama 2008: 49.0%
McCain 2008: 48.2%

Region Swing: 11.9% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 8.5% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Indiana: 99%
Kentucky: 1%

Region Comment
The objective for this region was to be the Indianapolis metropolitan area and Indiana south of the Capital Region. I also added Henderson County, IN which is part of the Evansville UCC. Notice the heavy swing and trend for this region, so the PVI in reality is probably closer to around R+9. State Senator James Merritt is running for the currently open Senate seat in Indiana and he lives in this district. Other strong republicans would include Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard and Congressman Todd Young. Former Senator Evan Bayh would of course be the best choice for the Democrats in this region.

[Gass3268]

Region: Wabash River Valley (Pink)
Largest City: Fort Wayne, IN
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President William Henry Harrison
PVI: R+5

Obama 2012: 43.0%
Romney 2012: 55.2%

Obama 2008: 50.1%
McCain 2008: 47.4%

Region Swing: 14.9% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 11.5% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Indiana: 69%
Michigan: 31%

Region Comment
The goal for this region was to add what was left of Indiana (minus the counties in the Northwest that are part of the Chicago UCC) and the first tow rows of counties in Southwest Michigan. I wanted the part of Michigan in this region to also avoid the Detroit, Grand Rapids, and Lansing metropolitan areas as well. Like the previous Indiana region, don't let the PVI fool you as it is probably closer to around R+7. Senator Joe Donnelly is from this region, but Richard Mourdock is from the Southern Indiana region so I don't think Donnelly would have been able to win this region without running against Mourdock. Senator Dan Coats is also from this region, but he is retiring. Congressmen Todd Rokita and Todd Young, both of Indiana, would be strong candidates for Republicans. Congressmen Fred Upton and Tim Walberg, both from Michigan, would also be good Republican choices.

[Gass3268]

Region: Detroit & St. Clair River Valleys (Green)
Largest City: Detroit, MI
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Secretary of State Lewis Cass
PVI: D+12

Obama 2012: 63.3%
Romney 2012: 35.5%

Obama 2008: 65.1%
McCain 2008: 33.2%

Region Swing: 4.2% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 0.8% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Michigan: 100%

Region Comment
The Detroit metropolitan area is pretty tricking because Macomb, Oakland, and Wayne counties are all very large and too big. As such I had to split the area into east and west, with the western counties going with the Ann Arbor, Flint and Lansing metropolitan areas. Senator Gary Peters represented a good portion of this region when he served in the house, but he lives in Oakland County. To prevent a primary with Senator Debbie Stabenow, who is from Lansing and has seniority, he could move to Macomb County and easily win this Senate seat.

[Gass3268]

Region: Lake Huron Peninsula (Cyan)
Largest City: Lansing, MI
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: Governor George Romney
PVI: D+5

Obama 2012: 55.3%
Romney 2012: 43.6%

Obama 2008: 58.2%
McCain 2008: 40.1%

Region Swing: 6.5% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 3.1% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Michigan: 100%

Region Comment
The goal for this district was to add the western part of the Detroit metropolitan area to the Ann Arbor, Flint, and Lansing metropolitan areas. I also originally planned to ad the Tri-Cities area as well, but this would have put the region over the population maximum. This would be Senator Debbie Stabenow's region.

[Gass3268]

Region: Eastern Lake Michigan Shoreline (Yellow)
Largest City: Grand Rapids
A Name For The Region Based On A Significant Person: President Gerald Ford
PVI: R+5

Obama 2012: 44.6%
Romney 2012: 53.6%

Obama 2008: 49.6%
McCain 2008: 50.6%

Region Swing: 8.0% Towards Republicans
Region Trend: 4.6% Towards Republicans

State Component Percentage
Michigan: 88%
Wisconsin: 12%

Region Comment
For this regions I took what was left of Michigan and then added the Northwoods area of Wisconsin, including Marathon County. This is probably a point or two more Republican than the PVI shows as Obama really over performed here in 2008. Terri Lynn Land, who ran in 2014 for the Michigan Senate Seat, would probably win in this region if she wanted it. Democrats have almost no bench in this region.