FL: Rereredistricting

[Gass3268]

Hopefully the legislature will draw a new district that makes Lois Frankel vulnerable.

More likely she gets a safer seat.

[Gass3268]

The court order forces FL-13 to be entirely within Pinellas which forces FL-12 to shift and cover more of north Pinellas. It forces FL-14 entirely within Hillsborough with adjustments to FL-15 and 17. The retreat of FL-5 to the north creates the likelihood that FL-10 becomes a district taking up all of Orlando with other high-minority suburbs. In my version it ends up 40.9% WVAP, 23.2% BVAP, 29.1% HVAP and 65.6% Obama 08. That forces corresponding changes to all the adjacent CDs with FL-7 picking up more of Orange and northern Lake, FL-9 picking up much of the old FL-10 in Polk and Orange, and FL-11 picking up most of Lake.

What is FL-09's political composition?

In 2008 it was 54.2/45.8 for Obama which is equivalent to D+0.5 or a toss up. The shape assumes no change to FL-8 (R+9) and minimal changes to FL-17 (R+10), but if those are reworked by the legislature then FL-9 is likely to end up more Pub.

So it becomes very hard to avoid 2 Obama seats in the Orlando area now, fascinating.  I wonder if the FLSC would go for the 4 way split of Orange, though.  Is it possible to split Orange only 2 or 3 ways and still have a majority-minority district?

The opinion did not care about the Orange splits, and didn't even find that FL-10 needed to be redrawn. Of course it has to be anyway, and I assume the FL legislature will make it a minority opportunity district as a Dem vote sink. The part of 8 in Orange isn't very big and could easily chop elsewhere.

Does a plan that double spans counties comply with the Florida constitutional requirement for compact districts and where feasible, utilization of political boundaries?

Can the split of Columbia be avoided?  What about 8/15 and Hillsborough/Polk, and 8/9 Orange/Polk.

I think the purple district in Hillsborough/Polk is 17.

[Gass3268]

Good to see two Democratic leaning seats in the Orlando area.

[Gass3268]

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It's a Redistmas Miracle!

Any chance we could get a 13-13-1 map?

[Gass3268]

Slightly off topic, but is there any litigation on the state legislature maps?