Democratic Wisconsin Primary results thread (polls close at 9pm ET)

[Gass3268]

[Gass3268]

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Sanders having breakfast in Milwaukee before heading out to Wyoming.

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Was just on with Howard Dean mostly attacking Sanders for his tax returns out of all things...this is the asshole who was the "progressive" in 2004.

Both Dean and Nichols (a Sanders sympathizer) were just saying that he should just go ahead and release his tax information. Don't let it become a story, which it has, can and will. There were no attacks, just basic political knowhow.

[Gass3268]

If turnout is really high in Waukesha county, would that be good news for Sanders? Someone is saying they could get 80% turnout.

Waukesha has very few young liberals in it... if there are Democrats there, they are either moderate or older or richer than statewide average. Would not be surprised if Clinton carried WOW.

Yeah, sorry, I'm not familiar with Wisconsin politics and demographics.

I'm expecting Clinton to carry this area, but it should be close either way. Waukesha is still an important county on the Democratic side. Produces the 3rd most votes, only behind Milwaukee and Dane.

[Gass3268]

If turnout is really high in Waukesha county, would that be good news for Sanders? Someone is saying they could get 80% turnout.

Waukesha has very few young liberals in it... if there are Democrats there, they are either moderate or older or richer than statewide average. Would not be surprised if Clinton carried WOW.

Yeah, sorry, I'm not familiar with Wisconsin politics and demographics.

I'm expecting Clinton to carry this area, but it should be close either way. Waukesha is still an important county on the Democratic side. Produces the 3rd most votes, only behind Milwaukee and Dane.

Very true... but Obama only carried Waukesha by 5 points in 08. Now, that may have been the racists going anti-Obama, which would hurt Hillary this time around, but given the demos there, mainly age and wealth, I'd think it's a strong candidate to flip to Hillary, as are Ozaukee, Washington, and Milwaukee Counties.

Only counter would be that Sanders did very well in similar counties in Illinois (DuPage, Kane, McHenry). McHenry County is the most similar county politically to the WOW counties and Sanders cleaned up there.  Should be interesting to see what happens. This region along with the Fox River Valley area are the two I am most interested in because they will probably determine if we are looking at a close Clinton win or a Sanders blowout.

[Gass3268]

If turnout is really high in Waukesha county, would that be good news for Sanders? Someone is saying they could get 80% turnout.

Waukesha has very few young liberals in it... if there are Democrats there, they are either moderate or older or richer than statewide average. Would not be surprised if Clinton carried WOW.

Yeah, sorry, I'm not familiar with Wisconsin politics and demographics.

I'm expecting Clinton to carry this area, but it should be close either way. Waukesha is still an important county on the Democratic side. Produces the 3rd most votes, only behind Milwaukee and Dane.

Very true... but Obama only carried Waukesha by 5 points in 08. Now, that may have been the racists going anti-Obama, which would hurt Hillary this time around, but given the demos there, mainly age and wealth, I'd think it's a strong candidate to flip to Hillary, as are Ozaukee, Washington, and Milwaukee Counties.

Only counter would be that Sanders did very well in similar counties in Illinois (DuPage, Kane, McHenry). McHenry County is the most similar county politically to the WOW counties and Sanders cleaned up there.  Should be interesting to see what happens. This region along with the Fox River Valley area are the two I am most interested in because they will probably determine if we are looking at a close Clinton win or a Sanders blowout.

Fair point, but Chicago also had a weird Anti-Rahm Emmanuel thing going on that overly polarized  that metro area - More apt to compare Waukesha to Oakland county in MI or Suburban Cinci.

I either read or heard that the Anti-Rahm thing really only had an effect in the city itself, but I could be wrong.

[Gass3268]

High turnout almost anywhere should be good news for Sanders.

Wisconsin almost always has high turnout. Polls usually account for that here. Don't read too much into it.

Yup, folks in Wisconsin like to vote.

[Gass3268]

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Huge news if true for the Supreme Court race!

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[Gass3268]

One place we are starting to see lines:

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[Gass3268]

From BenchmarkPolitics

"Indications that Clinton may outperform her benchmarks in Milwaukee, but Sanders well could outperform everywhere else. "

And

"Early indications are that Clinton is doing VERY well in Milwaukee - could help her keep down Sanders margins. Sanders seems to be doing very well in the smaller, whiter areas of Wisconsin. Neither of this was unexpected."

So nothing shocking or unexpected as of yet.

Milwaukee Proper is only providing around 10% of the vote in the Dem primary.  

GREAT news to Mr. Sanders ears!

Sanders can offset what Clinton does in the City of Milwaukee with Dane County alone. Like I said earlier the Milwaukee Suburbs and Green Bay-Appleton area are going to determine if this is a small Clinton win or a big Sanders win.

[Gass3268]

One place we are starting to see lines:

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Someone on twitter said the voting id laws were contributing to lines.

I heard that too for this particular location. However I've only heard good things about lines at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

[Gass3268]

Switching back to a Wisconsin avatar for tonight!

[Gass3268]

1 hour until we get our first exit poll info!

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Over 50% of registered voters at one Madison ward.

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Poll workers confused about new Voter ID Law

[Gass3268]

Wowza

Mother of god... it's over.

Holy poop!

[Gass3268]

Wowza

Mother of god... it's over.

You say that but early exit polls are usually never accurate, and will probably be adjusted accordingly.  Remember Nevada.

Exit polls are generally much closer to the actual result than entrance polls.

[Gass3268]

Honest and Trustwory:

Sanders 90%
Clinton 59%

[Gass3268]

Electorate is much more liberal than 2008.

[Gass3268]

Having brats and PBR (because it's from Milwaukee, not being a hipster) for dinner in honor of the Primary!