Predict Maryland (R)

[Gass3268]

It's probably a Trump sweep, but I would think the 8th (primarily Montgomery County) should be fertile Kasich territory. But then again, there's going to be disproportionately less votes there than in the rural parts of the district in a Republican Primary.

Yeah, the Democratic gerrymander really helps out Trump here.

[Gass3268]

I wonder if Cruz could win the Eastern Shore GOP district?

That was Trump's best area in the poll, he broke 50% in the eastern shore.  The eastern shore and western maryland are great Trump areas.

Yeah, 1 & 6 are probably close to Trump locks. 8 is probably pretty good for him as well considering there is so much rural northern Maryland in that district. The rest should be interesting, but I don't know where I would say Cruz or Kasich is favored.

[Gass3268]

Why are we assuming Kasich has a better chance than Cruz?

He's currently a head in the polling average.

[Gass3268]

Why are we assuming Kasich has a better chance than Cruz?

Most polls show Kasich over performing his national numbers by 5-10, while Cruz underperforms by 5-10. More campaigning will obviously make the GOP that nominated Hogan last time like Kasich better there.

I think Kasich wins the seventh and maybe the eighth.

Carroll County, which is going to be most of the registered R's in MD-07, should be very Trumpy.  I was thinking that Kasich has the best chance in MD-04, because it hugs DC and the areas of Anne Arundel it takes in are pretty upscale and business conservative oriented.  I agree with you that MD-08 should be his next best shot, if the Frederick/Carroll portion doesn't put Trump over the line, but there are still more registered R's in Montgomery County than in Baltimore City.  I think Cruz has his best chance in MD-01, but that's still quite unlikely.

Carroll County is split between MD-01 and MD-08. MD-07 is most of Baltimore City, majority of Baltimore County, and northern Howard County.

[Gass3268]

Funny thing about Maryland is they could have drawn a cleaner map that would have kept most of the Eastern Shore intact and win all 8 seats, but each representative had different demands that they wanted for their turf that made it impossible.