New poll hype thread

[Gass3268]

Quinnipiac Poll ‏@QuinnipiacPoll  2h2 hours ago
Tim Malloy & Peter Brown to discuss #Colorado #Florida #Ohio #Pennsylvania #SwingState Poll on 2016 presidential race
TODAY 3p eastern

Keep in mind Quinnipiac is another firm that has had a significant Republican lean all cycle.

Last polls were:

Sept 22- CO- Clinton 44, Trump 42, Johnson 10
Oct 3- FL- Clinton 46, Trump 41, Johnson 5
Oct 3- OH- Trump 47, Clinton 42, Johnson 6
Oct 3- PA- Clinton 45, Trump 41, Johnson 5


I'm gonna keep the same margins in OH and FL and double the PA and CO margins...have no clue on these

The question will be if we see a further drop of Johnson.

[Gass3268]

Let's face it, NV polls are worthless.

You pretty much can add 2-4 points to Team Blue to any poll.

[Gass3268]

FOX will show Clinton +2 or something close because they have to build excitement for the final debate they are hosting and if trump is way behind, their ratings suffer

They'll lose credibility if they show such a ridiculous swing.

Yeah, their polling and elections unit is pretty legit. It might be a bit conservative when it comes to implementing methodology, but it's all acceptable.

[Gass3268]

Didn't someone say something about a Minnesota poll?

[Gass3268]

Opinion Savvy ‏@Opinion_Savvy  39s40 seconds ago
Coming up tomorrow: Florida and Georgia polls, both entirely post- #debate. Expect release around noon

This is stupid.

[Gass3268]

Opinion Savvy ‏@Opinion_Savvy  39s40 seconds ago
Coming up tomorrow: Florida and Georgia polls, both entirely post- #debate. Expect release around noon

This is stupid.

How?

It's best to wait a couple days after the debate to let the full impact sink into the American psyche. The weekend would be the best time to poll. Also one day polls can be really fickle and jump around a lot.

[Gass3268]

I'm guessing we should expect post debate polls during the weekend?

Most will start the polls over the weekend and release them early next week.

[Gass3268]

Any state/national polls announced to be released yet?

My guess is a lot of pollsters are polling this weekend. We should get some more numbers early this work week.

[Gass3268]

Based on the PPP poll, I'm guessing Monmouth will be:

Clinton +5
Ross +1
Cooper +4

[Gass3268]

New CNN national poll at 4pm

[Gass3268]

"@Nate_Cohn  10s seconds ago


The Upshot/Siena poll of North Carolina, our last in the state, will be released tomorrow morning"


https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/790614244261785602

So many North Carolina polls!

He said that the Monmouth poll was strong for Republicans, so us that as a clue if you will.

[Gass3268]

Yeah, I got a bad feeling about the CNN poll. Hopefully I'm wrong.

[Gass3268]

New CNN national poll at 4pm

I'll go out on a limb and guess Clinton +3.  They'll do whatever it takes to cook up a "Tightening Race!" headline.

What was their last national poll?

Clinton +5

[Gass3268]

No confirmation here, but if NBC has a poll, it would be released midday tomorrow like the past few.

[Gass3268]

CNN has a new National poll, but the first 8 questions have been embargoed for future release it appears (probably tomorrow). Questions 9+ are available.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/10/25/rel19b.-.election.outcome.pdf

Again? Didn't they just release one?

Yeah, I thought that was from the poll they took yesterday.

Yeah, this is from yesterday, but new information.

[Gass3268]

Mark Murray said we should be seeing some NBC/Marist swing state polls here soon.

[Gass3268]

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Get hyped!

[Gass3268]

I got a mixed feeling about these polls.

[Gass3268]

C+3 - a drop but not especially significant, probably more Trump gaining than Clinton falling.

Ding Ding Ding we have a winner!