The absentee/early vote thread

[Gass3268]

Too bad the rest of Wisconsin doesn't have early voting like the city of Milwaukee. They started on September 24. I have off this week, would have love to have voted early. Have to wait until October 24th and rush after I get off work since they close a half hour after.

It was up to the local clerk in each municipality, I think. It's pretty much opened 100% right now in Dane County.

[Gass3268]

Republicans only take the lead only 1 week before in-person early-voting starts, ouch!

[Gass3268]

They'll probably update it one more time today but in Florida VBM, Democrats have cut the total ballots requested disadvantage to 48,000 (42,000 fewer ballots requested and 6,000 fewer ballots cast)

When is the deadline for this?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/787008832912392192
http://www.vpap.org/visualizations/early-voting

Early voting up 22% in Virginia from 2012 levels.

Northern Virginia (59%)
Southwest Virginia (26%)
Valley of Virginia (14%)
Capital Region (7%)
Southside Virginia (6%)
Northern Neck / Middle Peninsula (5%)
Piedmont (5%)
Hampton Roads (-14%)

Safe Clinton

[Gass3268]

1.5 million new registered Texas voters since 2012, a staggering increase. 777K since March, mostly in Democratic areas and places with large Latino populations.

Remember Univision said they were going to register 3 million more Latino voters. I wonder if they did crazy behind the scenes work in TX

Wow, this might corroborate only a 4% lead for Trump.

[Gass3268]

Any new updates on nc?

In person voting starts Thursday.

[Gass3268]

Clark County, NV Voter Registration Update (Deadline is on Tuesday in Nevada):



- County goes over 1 million registered voters
- Republicans are below 30%
- Democrats have a 139,760 lead

[Gass3268]

Early/Absentee Vote up 55% in Marion County (Indianapolis), Indiana

Huge news for Byah and Gregg!

[Gass3268]

Democrats took the lead in Florida with returned ballots!

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[Gass3268]

Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 1,950,090 votes or 4.2% of the 2012 early vote.

Big spike from a couple of days ago.

A lot more states have started voting. All so very exciting!

[Gass3268]

In-person early vote starts today in North Carolina. Very interested to hear turnout reports!

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/789088055105884160


According to TargetSmart, Ohio was 57% Dem 30% GOP on 10/17, now 50% D 36% R

Do we know what TargetSmart's number was in Ohio in 2012?

[Gass3268]

Not going well for Trump in North Carolina:

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[Gass3268]

Didn't some counties in NC make early voting harder this year?

Wasn't that one of the reasons for all the lawsuits?

Yeah, North Carolina has been on forefront of the voter supression movement.

[Gass3268]

North Carolina

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Gerry Cohen ‏@gercohen  26m
26 minutes ago
 
Raleigh, NC
Gerry Cohen Retweeted Michael McDonald
day 1 early vote subject to adjustment up tomorrow morning due to late reporting counties and later evening hours. 2012 totals were finals

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[Gass3268]

http://plunderbund.com/2016/10/20/hillarys-vp-sen-tim-kaine-tells-ohioans-2016-election-in-the-palm-of-their-hands/

“Voter turnout in Franklin County, home to state capital Columbus, is robust with more than 9,300 votes cast in person in the first four days, a 80 percent boost over the same period in 2012. Democrats have invested heavily in vote by mail efforts, and that appears to be paying off. The five Ohio counties with the largest vote by mail requests so far are Cuyahoga [home to Cleveland], Franklin, Hamilton [home to Cincinnati], Montgomery [home to Dayton] and Summit. Together they account for more than 40 percent of current ballot requests across the entire state. These five counties are likely to go for Hillary Clinton by similar or larger margins than President Obama’s 2012 results.”

That's nice, but I'm confused because @ElectProject says doom and gloom in Ohio, and CNN too.

There is no way to confirm it, but there has been some rumbling that turnout is down in the Republican areas of Cuyahoga and Franklin counties.

[Gass3268]

Iowa absentee ballot stats 10/21

Ballots requested:

DEM: 190,229
GOP: 155,417
IND: 93,140
Other: 1,211

Dems have gained almost 3,000 on the GOP since yesterday.

Ballots cast:

DEM: 114,737
GOP: 75,782
IND: 44,732
Other: 598

Dems have gained almost 700 since yesterday and now lead by about 39K. I think the magic # for Clinton is a 50K margin going into election day to win

These gains make sense with the rumblings reported by the media that both campaigns think Iowa has shifted toward Hillary recently.

[Gass3268]

45% increase in Latino VBM in California!

[Gass3268]

Absentee vote up 63.33% in Nothern Virginia, down 0.4% in the rest of the state

[Gass3268]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/789824761576599552

North Carolina Early Vote and Absentee Vote is 6% less black than 2012.

This is what happens when you pass voter supression laws. Hopefully things improve when more stations open up.

[Gass3268]

Mr. Nevada, Jon Ralston, is doing a live blog on the first day of in-person early voting in Nevada.

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

More on Washoe:

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[Gass3268]

Jon Ralston:

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[Gass3268]

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/

North Carolina

With 385,000 ballots now cast, turnout remains below 2012’s pace, but not by much (95% of 2012’s rate for the corresponding period). That’s a very substantial change from the 81% we reported on October 20th, just before Early Voting began.

Turnout is down not surprisingly in 28 counties that have restricted early voting, but in normal counties, it's up across all parties, especially unaffiliateds.



A warning sign for Clinton, black turnout is 75% of what it was in 2012, compared to 102% among whites. It does mention that this Sunday's souls to the polls could alleviate that.

Many of the restricted early voting counties are heavily black, so it's not shocking their turnout is down.