The absentee/early vote thread

[Gass3268]

108,000 people registered to vote during the extra week granted in Florida

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/790577926819442688

In first four hours of early voting in bellwether Hillsborough County, FL, Dems have a 49-35% lead in voters.  #enthusiasmgap

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/790577513235881984

In conservative Duval County, FL, the GOP was +3,000 in VBM ballots over two weeks of voting.  In 4 hours of Early Vote, Dems are up 500.

If Duval is close the race is over in Florida and thus the nation.

[Gass3268]

Day 2 tallies up at...

"The Nevada Early Voting Blog"

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

"Bottom line: After two days, the raw vote lead in urban Nevada for the Democrats is close to 21,000... It's a very blue wave so far, and Republicans have to be worried..."

Democrats in Nevada should get a referendum put on the ballot that moves the statewide races to Presidential years.

[Gass3268]

Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics  3m3 minutes ago
Per NBC's data, more than 6.5M Americans have already voted in '16 election. Here's partisan breakdown by battleground state

Before anyone freaks out PA, they have a pretty strict excuse absentee policy. Compared to Virginia where potential disruptions in public transportation is a legitimate excuse.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/steveschale?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

"And in Duval County, FL, which hasn't voted for Dem for POTUS since 1976, Dems have a 1K vote lead on day 1 of early voting."

"Day 1 EV so far is +13 Dem.  
All EV/VBM so far is +7 Dem -- but definitely growing.
Countywide reg overall is +7 Dem."

He's talking about Hillsborough^

"Low propensity voters make up about 27% of FL Dem VBM so far. GOP about 21%. Total about +30K. Dems are expanding contrary to GOP narrative."

Yeah, he has access to more data than we do, which makes sense as the head of Obama's Florida campaign in 2008.

[Gass3268]

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Republican 503,632   
Democrat 483,019   
Other 31,507   
NPA 188,191

What's the official party line as for why this is happening?

That's only the mail ballots, and Republicans were further ahead than that in 2012.

Yeah, Republicans are like 3% points behind 2012.

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

Wisconsin absentee ballot stats, 10/24

Dane and Milwaukee Counties have returned 73,233 of the 249,172 absentee ballots in Wisconsin, for 29.4% of the statewide total. These two counties contributed to 26% of the 2012 statewide total. These are the two big Dem counties.

Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties have returned 30,953 ballots, 12.4% of the 249,172 absentee ballots in Wisconsin. These three counties contributed to 12.3% of the 2012 statewide total. These are the three big GOP counties.

Dem big counties up 3.3%, GOP essentially flat

I'm surprised the WOW counties are flat, considering they're not exactly in love with Trump and 2012 had a favorite son on the ticket.

Turnout is Wisconsin is always very good.

[Gass3268]

Colorado mail ballot stats, 10/24

DEM: 48,167 (42.2%)
GOP: 36,825 (32.3%)
IND: 24,744 (24.1%)
Other: 1,676 (1.5%)

Michael McDonald said that Republicans typically lead, but this is the presidential election under new all mail-ballot + vote centers with same day reg law.

[Gass3268]

Whoa, Democrats surging in VBM in NEBRASKA:

2016:

VBM Requests: D 30,910 46% R 23,408 35% I 11,881 18% Total 66,768

2012:

vs. 2012 Requests: D 26,019 118.8% R 23,560 99.4% I 10,070 118.0% Total 59,980 111.3%

Hello, NE-02

If that holds up NE-01 could be reasonable.

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

In early Utah turnout, a third more Democrats than expected have voted

[Gass3268]

As polls closed at 6 p.m., more than 63,000 people had turned out for the first day of early voting, shattering the previous record of 47,093 set on day one of early voting in 2012.


Harris County, TX

[Gass3268]

More from Steve Schale:

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My guess is if the numbers are similar today as they were yesterday, Democrats could take the lead today.

[Gass3268]

in normal elections i would now be overjoyed.

in this election i am scared of registered usually non-voting dems...<.<

Yep. I do not see anything that would make me sleep well.

Other than the fact that almost everyone has said Florida is essentially won for Clinton.

[Gass3268]

in normal elections i would now be overjoyed.

in this election i am scared of registered usually non-voting dems...<.<

Yep. I do not see anything that would make me sleep well.

Other than the fact that almost everyone has said Florida is essentially won for Clinton.

Florida looks great so far with the massive uptick in Hispanic turnout, as do Arizona and Texas.  If you're going to worry, worry about black turnout in OH and NC and the apparently big uptick in NC white Dems (many of whom are not friendlies for Clinton).

Two polls in NC (PPP & Upshot) have Clinton winning the early vote in NC more than Obama did.

[Gass3268]

from ralston...another 30k out of clark county today, still going.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/791084516748189696

Wow.

About 21.7% of the total Clark County vote from 2012 in just 4 days of vote.

[Gass3268]

Important to note for NC:

(((Will Cubbison))) ‏@wccubbison
NC Early Vote Sites:
Yesterday 248
Today 253
Tomorrow 394 (!!)
After a weekend drop and only 120 Sunday, 400+ all next week

Yeah, this feels like an important factor.

Also should note that two polls have shown Hillary is doing much better than Obama did in the early vote in 2012. I think people are forgetting that there is going to be a decent % of registered Republicans (South Charlotte, Triangle Area) that will be voting for Clinton. Blue Dog Dems won't be the only voters to switch sides.

[Gass3268]

Few more positives for Hillary in OH

https://twitter.com/tbonier

"Sleeping giant awakens? Huge surge in early vote in Cuyahoga/Franklin Counties yesterday, now accounting for 20% of early votes cast in OH."

"38% of ballots cast in Ohio yesterday came from Franklin and Cuyahoga County. Time to lose the media narrative on Trump doing well in OH."

Cuyahoga/Franklin only made up 15.2% of the early vote cast as of last Thursday. That's a 5% increase in less than a week!

I also wonder if the Clinton camp decided to hold back a bit here like they also did in Iowa, where we are also seeing Democratic recovery/.

[Gass3268]

Should be noted that CO went to a near all-VbM system. Still great numbers!

[Gass3268]

In Florida, Democrats have requested 3557 more absentee ballots + votes in VBM but the GOP has about a 35.5K lead in just ballots cast. Are some Dems requesting VBM ballots and deciding to vote in person?

They could just not be returning their ballots.

Or because they're no immediately filling out the ballots...

I mean like the election is 12 days away (because mail for today has already ended on the East Coast) so they better get those ballots in.

Depends on the state, some will still count it if postmarked on Election Day.

[Gass3268]

In Florida, Democrats have requested 3557 more absentee ballots + votes in VBM but the GOP has about a 35.5K lead in just ballots cast. Are some Dems requesting VBM ballots and deciding to vote in person?

They could just not be returning their ballots.

Or because they're no immediately filling out the ballots...

I mean like the election is 12 days away (because mail for today has already ended on the East Coast) so they better get those ballots in.

Depends on the state, some will still count it if postmarked on Election Day.

In Florida, vote by mail requests terminate on November 2 and must be received no later than 7 PM on Election Day. Therefore, to ensure that the votes are counted, they should be sent by November 1 or 2 or hand-delivered to a voting station on Election Day itself

Thanks for the official word!

[Gass3268]

And some Wisconsin absentee stats for 10/26

Dane and Milwaukee (Dem counties) make up 29% of the early vote. They were 26% of the 2012 statewide vote.

Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington (Republican counties) make up 14.6% of the early vote. They were 12.3% of the 2012 statewide vote. So I think Clinton needs to shore up Wisconsin

Wisconsin is never decided in the 5 core counties, the outstate is what is important.

[Gass3268]

sounds like..other than solid dem NV...nobody can really see clear winner in NC/FL.

Did you see this Upshot article about North Carolina? They currently have Clinton winning the early vote 58.4-36.7 and based on that they have Clinton winning by 6 points, 49.1-43.1.