GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Gass3268]

Undecideds skew young.

[Gass3268]

I saw this on DK today, and I have to ask, who exactly is putting together these emails for Ossoff?




Is trying to digitally guilt someone really the best way to solicit money?

Many of the Democratic PACs & whatnot that have my email are written in this style: it must work in getting liberal old ladies to fork over their money, but I hate it.

Yeah, most studies show that stuff like this works, unfortunately.

[Gass3268]

Everyone on the ground from both sides says that all the energy and momentum is with Ossoff, so yeah.

[Gass3268]

GA GOP voters are a bunch of dirty liars when it comes to polling responses, and GA-6 is in the perfect area for this effect to be at its strongest (wealthier, more moderate "don't judge me I'm not that kind of GOP" types).

Basically any and all "undecideds" in the final weeks in GA contests go to the Republican candidate, even though they pretend to be all swing-y in the run-up to the election. If Ossoff isn't above 50% in aggregate polling in the final weeks, then he ain't likely winning.

However, this particular contest is obviously different for a lot of reasons, so maybe that doesn't hold true.

Yet this wasn't the case in the first round. Ossoff gained like 3% from his polling average.

[Gass3268]

WHOA

SurveyUSA poll of GA-6: Ossoff +7 (!)

Jon Ossoff - 51%
Karen Handel - 44%
Undecided - 6%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=e944d747-cc05-4608-90db-ed0527267059

Holy buckets!

[Gass3268]

If it works out how it usually does in GA, virtually all of those undecideds will go to Handel. I'm not sure why everybody's so excited about a 2-3 point lead in a poll.

Unless they are lying, there is an equal amount of undecided Trump and Clinton voters.

[Gass3268]

Sanders has done extensive work to help normalize Socialism in this country.

So like every other democracy on earth.

[Gass3268]

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Through today:

Cobb 11502 (16.5%)
DeKalb 17229 (24.8%)
Fulton 40828 (58.7%)
Total 69559

That growing DeKalb-Cobb disparity should be alarming Handel. Cobb is what should pull her over the finish line.

Does anyone know what the early vote %'s per county looked like in the early vote in the first round.

[Gass3268]

For reference:

In April (all votes), Fulton was 45%, Cobb 32% and Dekalb 23%.

In early vote, Fulton was 53%, Cobb 26% and Dekalb 21%.

Through today:

Cobb 11502 (16.5%)
DeKalb 17229 (24.8%)
Fulton 40828 (58.7%)
Total 69559

That growing DeKalb-Cobb disparity should be alarming Handel. Cobb is what should pull her over the finish line.

Does anyone know what the early vote %'s per county looked like in the early vote in the first round.

Former Pres. Griffin said in the first post in this quotation that it was 26 Cobb, 21 DeKalb, which sounds right, cuz I remember DeKalb was underrepresented. This could potentially be a pretty big deal in deciding the final outcome, particularly if Dems are getting those who didn't vote in DeKalb in round 1 to the polls.

Haha, whoops. Totally missed that.

[Gass3268]

Ossoff has now raised $23M; 15M of it since the first round of the primary.

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Can we stop the meme that Ossoff is getting his money in "huge" amounts?

[Gass3268]

New Landmark poll:

Ossoff 49.6 (+0.5)
Handel 47.1 (-0.5)

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/06/08/wsb-poll-ossoff-pushes-50-percent-in-georgia-6th-race/

Not a good trend line here for Handel

[Gass3268]

I'm not willing to go all the way to Lean Dem, but Tilt Dem seems acceptable.

[Gass3268]

If Trump's approval here is only ~33% and this remains about the same in 2018 and is relatively distributed across the country, the midterms will be a blood bath for the Republicans.

[Gass3268]

I find it somewhat odd that such a wealthy district like this has such an unfavorable view of the health act.

Polls a few years ago found the strongest opposition to the aca in suburban districts.

Maybe this suburb isn't as fiscally conservative as it first appeared

ACHA is much more unpopular all across the country.

[Gass3268]

Wasserman: still a tossup, maybe tiny Ossoff lead.

Essentially if he had a label that was between Toss Up and Lean D it would be placed there, which I think is accurate.

[Gass3268]

The DCCC is out with a "we really tried" memo that sure sounds like it's setting a narrative for a loss to Handel. Um.

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/874616868409155584

It seems like this this is proactive statement, regardless of what happens.

[Gass3268]

Obvious mound of salt, but:

Ryan Grim @ryangrim
Outside House GOP group tells me their internal poll over the weekend has Handel down 9 to Ossoff. That'd be the biggest gap so far. #GA06

https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/874777448025600000

I remember enough of 2016 to know that these kind of "oh no, we're doomed" GOP internals seem to never pan out that way.  Expectations managing.

I believe Osoff will win.  Probably his max is 53%, but likely will win with like 51%.

Those internals were before the Comey letter.

[Gass3268]

GOP pollsters Trafalgar Group have it: Ossoff 50 Handel 47

There polls were super Republican in 2016, but most ended up being pretty accurate.

[Gass3268]

Politico: GOP operatives say this race is trending away from Handel

Some highlights from article:

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[Gass3268]

New Fox/Alanta: Ossoff 49.7% vs Handel 49.4% https://mobile.twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/875740251540553732

A difference of 2 voters out of 537 respondents.

Early voters report 58% Ossoff - 42% Handel, which is enormous for Ossoff if true.

Well it's probably roughly accurate too looking at the early vote numbers. Ossoff got a huge number of Republicans and unaffiliateds in Round 1's early vote too

I'd imagine that close to 2/3rds of the unaffiliated voted for Ossoff.

[Gass3268]

I'm pretty sure jfern is a Republican concern troll. Notice how he reflectively bashes every "establishment" Democrat over absolutely nothing

He is cut from the same cloth as those who think there is literally a party conspiracy to shut out viable progressive candidates in working class districts in favor of more moderate/centrist candidates in suburbia. He thinks the establishment would rather stay in the minority with centrists than win with progressives, which is silly, imo. If the party picked up the necessary 24 seats with a dozen or more progressives, the establishment would still have a lot of control. You don't need even close to a unanimously-centrist party to rule it in a centrist fashion. Not that I think this is what is happening, anyhow.

The party has made it clear that they'd rather lose with a neoliberal than win with a progressive. Hillary had a 67% not honest and trustworthy rating during the primary, and they decided to nominate her over someone who polled much better in the general election. And those progressives who get the nomination don't get a lot of help from their party: Feingold, Teachout, Quist, and so on. The DNC was money laundering $350k donations back to the Hillary campaign from the Hillary Victory Fund during the primary to get around the $2700 donation limit, since that's nothing for Hillary's fat cat donors. The establishment has worked hard to the contempt of progressives.

The base picked Clinton over Sanders.

You people keep bitching about the "establishment", but they had nothing to do with Clinton winning over Sanders. It is not their fault, Sanders stupidly ignored the south.  

The base picked Clinton over Obama in 2008. How come she didn't end up with the nomination then?

?

The base of the Democratic party is people of color, Obama snatched them away from Clinton and that was the biggest reason why she lost in 2008.

Democratic Party primaries total vote count, 2008

Barack Obama-17,584,692
Hillary Clinton-17,857,501

If that includes Florida and Michigan it's invalid.

[Gass3268]

New poll has Handel +1%

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DKE thinks this is a fake poll.

[Gass3268]

Win or lose, $23+ million for a House race is a waste. That money could have gone to other races, helping broke state parties recover, stop ALEC from calling a constitutional convention, and so on. There is much better bang for the buck elsewhere than this.

How much was from small donors? The kind of donors everyone has been saying Democrats should rely on. I keep reading your posts and getting the feeling that you think the establishment has been fully funding Ossoff.

I believe his average has been $40.