Here's how this is gonna go:
1. Very early polls will have the Democrat leading.
2. Then the polls will shift and Trump will have a narrow to sometimes even a moderate lead. One poll will show Trump by double digits, event though they don't have a Spanish language option. Dems in disarray. Sean Trende will say something stupid and Harry Enten will say that the polls have never been wrong in Nevada.
3. The polls will then tighten about a month before the election. Everyone will then call it a Toss Up.
4. Early voting will start and it will be strong for the Democrats initially, but then the Republicans will recover during the first week after Trump does a visit. Jon Ralston will say it's close.
5. Democrats crush the early vote in the last week. Jon Ralston says its essentially over.
6. Democrats win by 3-7 points.
