Would Bush Jr. Have Invaded Iraq Without 9/11 Or A Similar Terrorist Attack?

[Bo]

I'd say No. He and his advisors might have wanted to, but I doubt that the public would have supported him if they weren't scared like crazy (as many were in RL after 9/11). Back in 1990-1991, nearly half of Americans opposed entering the Gulf War (even though the U.S. was just liberating one of its allies, not invading another country). Thus, I doubt that many people would have supported American entry into Iraq without 9/11 or a similar terrorist attack. The U.S. economy was in poor shape between 2001-2003, so if people were not scared, they would have criticized Bush for invading another country instead of worrying about domestic problems and the economy.

[Bo]

I'd say No. He and his advisors might have wanted to, but I doubt that the public would have supported him if they weren't scared like crazy (as many were in RL after 9/11). Back in 1990-1991, nearly half of Americans opposed entering the Gulf War (even though the U.S. was just liberating one of its allies, not invading another country). Thus, I doubt that many people would have supported American entry into Iraq without 9/11 or a similar terrorist attack. The U.S. economy was in poor shape between 2001-2003, so if people were not scared, they would have criticized Bush for invading another country instead of worrying about domestic problems and the economy.

A justification would have been found/created. 

Yes, but without massive public fear and with a poor economy, I think that support for the war might initially be not nearly as high as it was in RL, and thus Bush might be afraid to risk his reelection on a foreign adventure that a large segment of the American people would not support.

[Bo]

No, they had no means to justify it. He also would've lost re-election, probably.

Exactly. Even if Bush & Co. would have created an excuse, the majority of the public (or a very large minority) would have opposed the invasion since the U.S. either was in a recession (2001-2003) or just came out of a recession (2004) and thus they would feel that Bush should worry more about domestic problems and the economy instead of going on some foreign adventure. Thus, Bush would be afraid to go into Iraq because he would fear that this foreign adventure would cost him his reelection.

[Bo]

I'd say No. He and his advisors might have wanted to, but I doubt that the public would have supported him if they weren't scared like crazy (as many were in RL after 9/11). Back in 1990-1991, nearly half of Americans opposed entering the Gulf War (even though the U.S. was just liberating one of its allies, not invading another country). Thus, I doubt that many people would have supported American entry into Iraq without 9/11 or a similar terrorist attack. The U.S. economy was in poor shape between 2001-2003, so if people were not scared, they would have criticized Bush for invading another country instead of worrying about domestic problems and the economy.

A justification would have been found/created. 

Basically, this.

When a militarist wants to lead his country to war, an excuse is created.  Remember, Germany only invaded Poland because the Poles first attacked Germany...

Bush wasn't really a militarist, though. He just wanted to get reelected and wanted something to district people from his mediocre economic record.

[Bo]

What could justification could be created? Invading a country, in a time of peace, that posed no immediate threat would be met with immense hostility from an intensely divided Congress. Without 9/11, there is no legitamete reason. Bush and Co. are kicked out in 2004, and their successors are kicked out in '08. Much like a revolving door.

I agree with you. I think that without 9/11, Bush might have bombed Iraq, but not invaded it.