The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Bo]

Romney at 27.8? What are people smoking.

The guy is not any more attractive today than he was in 2007. Yeah there will be more focus on economic issues, but his signature initiative as Governor is now wrapped around Obama a coat of sweat after a hot summer day. He didn't even show a pulse in Iowa. And he's at a huge disadvantage to more consistent (non Mormon) conservatives in South Carolina. And he's about as charismatic as a TV weather man.

80 percent chance the GOP nominee will be Palin. The only reason not to buy Palin right now is the fact that Intrade deposits are in Irish banks and having any money in an Irish bank these days is a gamble in itself. In fact, I would say at the moment she has about a 40 percent chance of being inaugurated on January 20, 2013.

Hate to break it to you, but Palin is much more interested in getting rich than running for President.

And how do you know that? You have a mind reading device?

I trust Levi Johnson when he says that Palin wanted to get rich off her new found fame. 
Of course, if she sees a higher calling to be president, and give up that money, that could happen.  But she's in a good position now, it can hurt her brand more if she gets into an ugly primary battle with Romney and others.  If you think she sounded dumb in 2008, then prepare for a huge stinkbomb when she goes on those 10 or more primary debates.  Plus, if she gets the nomination and loses to Obama, she would have really wasted a lot of time and income earning.

Actually, if Palin wants to make more money quicker, then the best thing for her to do would be to run for President. That way, regardless of whether she wins or loses (and she will probably lose the Presidency, but might win the nomination), her fame and publicity would increase and she would thus be able to sell much more of her books. Also, people would remember her longer that way and thus her celebrity career afterwards can have much more income-earning potential in the long-run. Most people remember former Presidential nominees much longer than they remember former VP nominees. And also, pretty much everything (including the negative stuff) about Palin's personal life and career has already been uncovered, so there isn't a very high chance that a lot of large new dirt on her would be uncovered. Even if something new and bad about Palin was uncovered, I really don't think it will change people's opinions of her much. Her fans and supporters will still like her a lot, while most Democrats and Independents would still dislike her.

[Bo]

Romney 30.0
Palin 20.0
Thune 12.5
Gingrich 10.9
Pawlenty 10.4
Daniels 8.5
Huckabee 6.9
Pence 5.0

I wonder what caused Daniels and Pence to both make a 5 point jump?

A lot of buying from wealthy supporters of theirs, probably.

[Bo]

Actually, if Palin wants to make more money quicker, then the best thing for her to do would be to run for President. That way, regardless of whether she wins or loses (and she will probably lose the Presidency, but might win the nomination), her fame and publicity would increase and she would thus be able to sell much more of her books.

I don't think that's right.  There's a certain stigma associate with being a losing presidential candidate, especially if you lose really spectacularly.  Look at what happened with Giuliani.  His failed presidential run hurt his brand and damaged his lucrative consulting business.  As long as Palin doesn't run for prez, she'll continue to be viewed as a leading voice in the party, who speaks for a large segment of the base.  If she runs and disappoints, and loses the nomination, then it would demonstrate that she doesn't speak for as many people in the party as was previously thought, and her brand would be hurt.

This is why Gingrich has teased a possible presidential run for 15 years but never runs.  If he's a potential future candidate, then more people will listen to him.  Whereas if he runs and loses spectacularly, he'd be ignored.  The only reason he might finally run in 2012 is because he's getting so old that he can't plausibly keep playing this game any longer.

Palin is a unique case, though. A lot of previously hidden dirt on Giuliani came up while he was campaigning. Thus, people's opinions changed because they found out bad stuff about him that they didn't know before. In regards to Palin, most of the dirt on her already came out, so I seriously doubt significant dirt about her would come out in the future. Also, Giuliani always had a much shakier chance at the nomination than Palin because Giuliani was pro-abortion, pro-gay rights, and pro-gun control. Many Republicans didn't like those positions and once those positions were publicized, he lost. Palin's positions are almost perfect for the GOP electorate, and there is little on the actual issues that her GOP opponents could criticize her on. I suppose she could damage herself somewhat if she ran for the GOP nomination and lost, but she would still get a lot of extra publicity and possibly more devoted supporters. On the other hand, if she wins the nomination but loses the general election, she would get huge amounts of publicity and when she would lose, at least she would lose fighting for her principles like Goldwater did in 1964. That would ensure that Palin would retain her influence in the GOP for a much longer time than she would have otherwise. And Palin has very good odds at winning the GOP nomination, and I think she knows that. Goldwater was still very relevant in the GOP in the 1980s, 20+ years after he lost. However, former VP nominees who lose (Ferraro, Kemp, Lieberman, Edwards, etc.) typically quickly fade into irrelevancy, and Palin would probably follow in their footsteps and become irrelevant relatively quickly unless she does something to maximize her publicity.