Some of my thoughts

[Vosem]

After considering some things, I have come to the following conclusions:

1. The Democratic Convention was indisputably more successful than the Republican Convention. This baffles my mind, but you can't argue with statistics. The Republican bounce was no more than 1-2 points, whereas the Democratic bounce is more substantial; 5 points or so.

2. Speaking from a historical point of view, the Democratic bounce was weak (Nate Silver said the average bounce was 7-8 points). It's just that the Republican bounce was even weaker.

3. Obama will not do as well as he did in 2008. Period. At the height of the convention bounce, he is doing only as well as he did then.

4. The bigger convention bounce indicates that there are more soft-Romney supporters than soft-Obama supporters, which makes the small edge the President has (probably around ~2-3 points after the bounce recedes) more substantial than it seems.

5. Romney does still have advantages. The two key ones are that the recovery seems to be weakening, at least to me, and that considering Europe it is perfectly possible we will slip into a recession this fall (or at least that the next two job reports may show us losing, not gaining jobs). In any case, it seems very unrealistic to hope for good economic news for Obama. The second one is that, without factoring in outside groups, Romney and Obama are about even in terms of campaign spending -- much better than a usual challenger. When you do factor them in, Romney is dominating. That is very unusual for a challenger.

6. It seems unlikely there will be any significant foreign-policy news this fall except European economics, which will help Romney -- speaking purely from the vantage-point of electoral politics, a highly-publicized conflict somewhere, in the Middle East or Caucasus, would help Obama, who has the incumbent advantage.

7. It is looking increasingly likely that the election result will be a Bush '04-esque victory for Obama (in terms of size in the EC), Republicans picking up the Senate 51-49 (which seats is debatable, but it always seems comes back to this number, for me), and that the House will not see significant change, with either Republicans or Democrats picking up <10 seats.

8. 2013 seems like it will be painful for whoever is in charge without several miracles. Very painful.