Who will win in Colorado?

[Vosem]

I do think Udall is narrowly favored unless the environment gets a bit better for Republicans, but it's important to remember, considering 2010, that Gardner is a far stronger and more polished candidate than Buck, and that Bennet is probably somewhat stronger than Udall as well. This is an important state for Republicans to do well in -- it was the decisive state in 2012 and co-decisive with Iowa in 2008.

Keep in mind that Buck, a very flawed, hard-right candidate with almost a comically terrible record on women's issues, still only lost by 2 points after leading in the polls for most of the campaign. Had Republicans nominated someone merely inoffensive that year (Jane Norton/Cory Gardner), they would've won. Gardner is not Buck, and Udall is no Bennet -- but, at the same time, 2014 is not shaping up to be as decisive as 2010, and that may still save Udall.

[Vosem]

Vosem, it's interesting you say that, because the general consensus seems to be that Udall is a better politician than Bennet is. Other than that, I agree with your evaluation.

Udall definitely has more experience, but his House district was (is) a pretty safe Democratic, left-wing place. In the 2008 Senate race, he didn't really have to fight for it; he was unopposed in the primary he faced a Republican way too right-wing for the state (this is an unfortunate pattern in Colorado) who on top of that was kind of a has-been, in the best year for Colorado Democrats in recent history, when they won the House delegation 5-2. (As an aside, Udall underperformed polling to a degree in 2008; the final RCP average was Udall+13, but the actual result was Udall+10; even as the same polls significantly underestimated Obama, predicting Obama+6 while the result was Obama+9; I don't know what/why this is but it definitely can't be a sign of strength). So this is going to be Udall's first-ever go at a truly 50/50 D/R race, and probably his greatest challenge since the House primary in 1998. Bennet, by contrast, was a newcomer, but ran a very impressive, polished campaign in 2010. In the Senate, Bennet has risen quickly into leadership (becoming chair of the DSCC, which has recently been a position that Senators on both sides -- like Chuck Schumer or John Cornyn -- have used to become very influential in the caucus), but Udall has remained a relatively anonymous backbencher, and generally strength in the caucus translates into strength in things like fundraising. So I think judging by their records Bennet is a more impressive candidate than Udall.

[Vosem]

This is an important state for Republicans to do well in -- it was the decisive state in 2012 and co-decisive with Iowa in 2008.

Obama would've won even without Colorado.

Assuming universal swing, this is incorrect:

Romney wins 275-263. In 2008, that map would've been a 269-269 tie and thrown to the House; McCain would've needed Iowa, the next closest state, to win. In 2012 the next closest Obama state was Pennsylvania.